展望理论、投机交易和共同知识假设

本文基于展望理论研究了证券市场上投机者的投机交易问题。在展望价值框架下,证明了投机者的共同知识分布假设会使得投机者不能形成交易。进一步通过引入投机者的不同投资心理和基于投资心理的展望价值模型,解释了投机者对未来的不同认知分布是形成交易的重要原因。

油田水结垢预测研究综述

目前在油气田注水开发过程中,温度、压力等外界环境变化及不相溶水的混合,致使油气田容易产生无机垢,严重影响油田正常生产。在对油气田结垢机理进行概述的基础上,主要介绍了针对碳酸盐、硫酸盐垢及混合垢提出的基本原理、预测模型及适用范围,同时也指出了各种预测方法优缺点。最后,指出了结垢预测技术研究的发展方向。

Retrospect and Perspective of Micro-mixing Studies in Stirred Tanks

Mixing problems are most likely encountered and sometimes can be severe in scaling-up projects. Micro-mixing is an important aspect for fast or quasi-instantaneous reactions. Poor micro-mixing might produce more undesired by-products, leading to higher purification costs. This paper gives an extensive review and analysis of micro-mixing studies in single- and multi phase stirred tanks. The relevant experiment techniques, micro-mixing models and nurherical approaches are critically reviewed and analyzed with remarks and perspectives. The reported studies on two-phase micro-mixing experiments and on the impact of the presence of the dispersed phases on turbulence have been limited to a narrow range of conditions. More importantly, disparities widely exist among different reports. Both Lagrangian and Eulerian models are based on oversimplified assumptions, which may lead to uncertainties or even unrealistic results. A heuristic model, which is from the perspective of CFD （computational fluid dynamics） and can cover the whole spectrum of scales and also focus on every subrocess, is desired in the future.

China＇s Economic Outlook into 2030： Transformation, Simulation and Policy Suggestions

This article discusses China＇s economic growth path and the potential challenges to becoming a high-income country by utilizing simulation to provide potential policy responses. The authors believe it is necessary to optimize spatial allocation and promote urbanization, but distorted urbanization must be avoided as it will only perpetuate the current problems. The core strategy is to change government behavior to allow the market to allocate resources. It is important to maintain stable growth in the short term and balance the economic structure in the medium- and long-term. In particular, optimizing spatial allocation must constitute a critical part of the policy adjustment. Only with a viable urbanization model can the country shift from the catch-up pursuit via industrialization to a balanced approach of sustainable growth. This can be done through gradual guidance and policy corrections. China should continue to uphold the ＂scientific concept of development＂ as the overarching principle governing socioeconomic development, and create a unique approach to sustainability where the economy grows steadily, sharing is universal and people live in harmony with nature.

Review and Prospects of the Global Earthquake Model Project ( GEM)

This paper reviewed the main target,functions,tool( Open Quake software) and research achievements of the Global Earthquake Model( GEM) Foundation,and made a simple prospect on the development and application of projects of GEM in the future. Learning from GEM and Open Quake is helpful to improve the seismic hazard model of China and enhance the scientificity of the seismic hazard assessment for metropolitans and major engineering facilities near major seismogenic structures.

FREQUENTIST MODEL AVERAGING ESTIMATION:A REVIEW

In applications, the traditional estimation procedure generally begins with model selection.Once a specific model is selected, subsequent estimation is conducted under the selected model withoutconsideration of the uncertainty from the selection process. This often leads to the underreportingof variability and too optimistic confidence sets. Model averaging estimation is an alternative to thisprocedure, which incorporates model uncertainty into the estimation process. In recent years, therehas been a rising interest in model averaging from the frequentist perspective, and some importantprogresses have been made. In this paper, the theory and methods on frequentist model averagingestimation are surveyed. Some future research topics are also discussed.

Challenges and perspectives of combustion chemistry research

In the past decades, combustion chemistry research grew rapidly due to the development of combustion diagnostic methods,quantum chemistry methods, kinetic theory, and computational techniques. A lot of kinetic models have been developed for fuels from hydrogen to transportation fuel surrogates. Besides, multi-scale research method has been widely adopted to develop comprehensive models, which are expected to cover combustion conditions in real combustion devices. However, critical gaps still remain between the laboratory research and real engine application due to the insufficient research work on high pressure and low temperature combustion chemistry. Besides, there is also a great need of predictive pollutant formation model. Further development of combustion chemistry research depends on a closer interaction of combustion diagnostics, theoretical calculation and kinetic model development. This paper summarizes the recent progress in combustion chemistry research briefly and outlines the challenges and perspectives.