Application of Land-use Change Model in Guiding Regional Planning:A Case Study in Hun-Taizi River Watershed,Northeast China

This paper firstly investigated the land-use and land-cover change （LUCC） in the Hun-Taizi River water- shed, Northeast China from 1988 to 2004 based on remotely sensed images and geographic information systems （GIS） technology. Then, using the famous land-use change model of Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small re- gional extent （CLUE-S）, this paper simulated the land use changes under historical trend （HT）, urban planning （UP） and ecological protection （EP） scenarios considering urban planning and ecological protection over the next 20 years. The simulated results under UP scenario in 2020 were compared with the planning map to assess the feasibility of us- ing land-use change model to guide regional planning. Results show that forest land, dry farmland, paddy, and shrub land were the main land-use categories. Paddy and dry farmland being converted to urban area and rural settlement characterized the land-use change from 1988 to 2004. The main land-use categories changed over time. Landscape-pattem fragmentation will be worse under HT and UP scenarios, but better in EP scenario. The comparing results of simulated map with planning map in 2020 show that land-use change model is powerful tool to guide regional planning. Land-use scenarios can support regional planning and policy-making through analyzing future consequences scientifically.

Applying Periodic Boundary Conditions to Predict Open Water Propeller Performance

Mathematical models of propellers were created that investigate the influence of periodic boundary conditions on predictions of a propeller's performance.Thrust and torque coefficients corresponding to different advance coefficients of DTMB 4119, 4382, and 4384 propellers were calculated.The pressure coefficient distribution of the DTMB 4119 propeller at different sections was also physically tested.Comparisons indicated good agreement between the results of experiments and the simulation.It showed that the periodic boundary condition can be used to rationally predict the open water performance of a propeller.By analyzing the three established modes for the computation, it was shown that using the spline curve method to divide the grids can meet the calculation's demands for precision better than using the rake cutting method.

Application of Developed Grid-GA Distributed Hydrologic Model in Semi-Humid and Semi-Arid Basin

A grid and Green-Ampt based （Grid-GA）distributed hydrologic physical model was developed for flood simulation and forecasting in semi-humid and semi-arid basin. Based on topographical information of each grid cell extracted fi＇om the digital elevation model （DEM） and Green-Ampt infiltration method, the Grid-GA model takes into consideration the redistribution of water content, and consists of vegetation and root interception, evapotranspiration, runoff generation via the excess infiltration mechanism, runoff concentration, and flow routing. The downslope redis- tribution of soil moisture is explicitly calculated on a grid basis, and water exchange among grids within runoff routing along the river drainage networks is taken into consideration. The proposed model and Xin＇anjiang model were ap- plied to the upper Lushi basin in the Luohe River, a tributary of the Yellow River, with an area of 4 716 km2 for flood simulation. Results show that both models perform well in flood simulation and can be used for flood forecasting in semi-humid and semi-arid region.

Application of ANNs Model with the SDSM for the Hydrological Trend Prediction in the Sub-catchment of Kurau River, Malaysia

The paper describes the application of SDSM （statistical downscaling model） and ANNs （artificial neural networks） models for prediction of the hydrological trend due to the climate-change. The SDSM has been calibrated and generated for the possible future scenarios of meteorological variables, which are temperature and rainfall by using GCMs （global climate models）. The GCM used is SRES A2. The downscaled meteorological variables corresponding to SDSM were then used as input to the ANNs model calibrated with observed station data to simulate the corresponding future streamflow changes in the sub-catchment of Kurau River. This study has discovered the hydrological trend over the catchment. The projected monthly streamflow has shown a decreasing trend due to the increase in the, mean of temperature for overall months, except the month of August and November.

基于启发式变量筛选方法研究与雌激素β受体结合的化合物结构与活性之间的关系

雌激素类化合物由于其对人和野生动物健康的负面影响而受到广泛关注.雌激素受体存在两种亚型(ERα和ERβ),化合物与两种受体亚型在结合活性和化合物结构特征方面存在差异.以31种与雌激素β受体亚型(ERβ)结合的化合物为研究对象,采用启发式变量筛选方法,从1524个变量中筛选出5个与化合物活性(lgRBA)最相关的变量,然后采用多元线性回归(MLR)建立最佳预测模型.模型相关性显著,而且具有良好的稳健性和预测能力(r2=0.829,q2LOO=0.742,r2pred=0.772,q2ext=0.724,RMSEE=0.395).同时揭示了影响化合物与ERβ受体结合的配体化合物分子的结构特征,并对模型的应用域进行了研究.

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological model parameters based on the bootstrap method:A case study of the SWAT model applied to the Dongliao River Watershed,Jilin Province,Northeastern China

As an important tool for the description and analysis of hydrological processes,the watershed hydrological model has been increasingly applied to watershed hydrological simulations and water resource management.However,in most cases,model parameters are only determined in a calibration scheme which fits the modeled data to observations,thus significant uncertainties exist in the model parameters.How to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainties in model parameters and the resulting uncertainty impacts on model simulations has always been a question which has attracted much attention.In this study,two methods based on the bootstrap method(specifically,the model-based bootstrap and block bootstrap)are used to analyze the parameter uncertainties in the case of the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model applied to a hydrological simulation of the Dongliao River Watershed.Then,the uncertainty ranges of five sensitivity parameters are obtained.The calculated variation coefficients and the variable parameter contributions show that,among the five parameters,ESCO and CN2 have relatively high uncertainties:the variation coefficients and contribution rates are 23.98 and 70%,14.43 and 18%,respectively.The three remaining parameters have relatively low uncertainties.We compare the two uncertainty ranges of parameters acquired by the two bootstrap methods,and find that the uncertainty ranges of parameters acquired by the block bootstrap are narrower than those acquired by the model-based bootstrap.Further analysis of the effects of parameter uncertainties on the model simulation reveals that the parameter uncertainties have great impacts on results of the model simulation,and in the model calibration stage 60%70%of runoff observations were within the corresponding 95%confidence interval.The uncertainty in the model simulation during the flood season(i.e.the wet period)is relatively higher than that during the dry season.

Integrated modeling environment and a preliminary application on the Heihe River Basin, China

Environmental and water issues are essentially complex interdisciplinary problems. Multiple models from different disciplines are usually integrated to solve those problems. Integrated modeling environment is an effective technical approach to model integration. Although a number of modeling environments worldwide are available, they cannot meet current challenges faced. Their old-fashion designs and original development purposes constrain their possible applications to the domain of hydrologic or land surface modeling. One of the challenges is that we intend to link knowledge database or ontology system to the modeling environment in order to make the modeling support more intelligent and powerful. In this paper, we designed and implemented an integrated modeling environment (HIME) for hydrological and land surface modeling purpose in a much extendable, efficient and easy use manner. With such design, a physical process was implemented as a module, or component. A new model can be generated in an intuitive way by linking module icons together and establishing their relationships. Following an introduction to the overall architecture, the designs for module linkage and data transfer between modules are described in details. Using XML based meta-information, modules in either source codes or binary form can be utilized by the environment. As a demonstration, with the help of HIME, we replaced the evaporation module of TOPMODEL with the evapotranspiration module from the Noah land surface model which explicitly accounts for vegetation transpiration. This example showed the effectiveness and efficiency of the modeling environment on model integration.