宁夏旅游需求量的预测

研究了采用 Hamm erstein模型对宁夏 2 0 0 6年的旅游需求量进行预测的方法及在市场经济条件下对该模型的修正 ,同时还提出了在小样本条件下 Hamm erstein模型是一个非线性模型 。

Modeling of temperature-humidity for wood drying based on time-delay neural network

The temperature-humidity models of wood drying were developed based on Time-delay neural network and the identification structures of Time-delay neural network were given. The controlling model and the schedule model, which revealed the relation between controlling signal and temperature-humidity and the relation between wood moisture content and temperature-humidity of wood drying, were separately presented. The models were simulated by using the measured data of the experimental drying kiln. The numerical simulation results showed that the modeling method was feasible, and the models were effective.

Identification of constitutive model parameters for nickel aluminum bronze in machining

The material of nickel aluminum bronze (NAB) presents superior properties such as high strength, excellent wear resistance and stress corrosion resistance and is extensively used for marine propellers. In order to establish the constitutive relation of NAB under high strain rate condition, a new methodology was proposed to accurately identify the constitutive parameters of Johnson?Cook model in machining, combining SHPB tests, predictive cutting force model and orthogonal cutting experiment. Firstly, SHPB tests were carried out to obtain the true stress?strain curves at various temperatures and strain rates. Then, an objective function of the predictive and experimental flow stresses was set up, which put the identified parameters of SHPB tests as the initial value, and utilized the PSO algorithm to identify the constitutive parameters of NAB in machining. Finally, the identified parameters were verified to be sufficiently accurate by comparing the values of cutting forces calculated from the predictive model and FEM simulation.

COMBINATION OF DISTRIBUTED KALMAN FILTER AND BP NEURAL NETWORK FOR ESG BIAS MODEL IDENTIFICATION

By combining the distributed Kalman filter （DKF） with the back propagation neural network （BPNN）,a novel method is proposed to identify the bias of electrostatic suspended gyroscope （ESG）. Firstly,the data sets of multi-measurements of the same ESG in different noise environments are ＂mapped＂ into a sensor network,and DKF with embedded consensus filters is then used to preprocess the data sets. After transforming the preprocessed results into the trained input and the desired output of neural network,BPNN with the learning rate and the momentum term is further utilized to identify the ESG bias. As demonstrated in the experiment,the proposed approach is effective for the model identification of the ESG bias.

Identification of Hammerstein Model Using Hybrid Neural Networks

The identification problem of Hammerstein model with extension to the multi input multi output (MIMO) case is studied. The proposed identification method uses a hybrid neural network (HNN) which consists of a multi layer feed forward neural network (MFNN) in cascade with a linear neural network (LNN). A unified back propagation (BP) algorithm is proposed to estimate the weights and the biases of the MFNN and the LNN simultaneously. Numerical examples are provided to show the efficiency of the proposed method.

Short Term Load Forecasting Using Subset Threshold Auto Regressive Model

The subset threshold auto regressive (SSTAR) model, which is capable of reproducing the limit cycle behavior of nonlinear time series, is introduced. The algorithm for fitting the sampled data with SSTAR model is proposed and applied to model and forecast power load. Numerical example verifies that desirable accuracy of short term load forecasting can be achieved by using the SSTAR model.

Model Recognition of Astronauts Blood Flow Change Under Sustained +Gz Acceleration

Aim Using animals as object of experiment to acquire various patterns of low cerebral blood pressure and reduced blood capacity in cerebral tissues of astronauts due to the load of acceleration. Methods The isotope tracking technique was applied to mark the blood and record the dynamic curves of cerebral blood flow changes under various accelerations, and the relevant mathematical model was set up using the method of system recognition. Also the method of factor analyzing was used to select two out of the data collected by eight sensors as two factors. Results One of the two factors reflects the various patterns in the astronaut's upper body, the other for the lower body. Parameters of rise time, delay time and steady value reflect the results under different acceleration. Conclusion Whether for the upper body or the lower body, blood flow changes can be considered as a second order system model. This method provides a new technique and method of doing research on astronaut's endurance of acceleration and selecting astronauts.

THE MODEL VALIDATION OF DYNAMIC NEURAL NETWORKS

This paper investigates the problem of the model validation in identifying discrete-time-nonlinear dynamic systems by using neural networks with a single hidden layer.Based on the estimation theory,a synthetic error-index(SEI)criterion for the neural network models has been developed.By using the powerful training algorithm of recursive prediction error (RPE),two simulated non-linear systems are studied,and the results show that the synthetic error-index criterion can be used to verify the dynamic neural network models.Furthermore,the proposed technique is much simple in calculation than that of the effective correlation tests.Finally,some problems required by further study are discussed.

Identification of nucleation parameter for cellular automaton model of dynamic recrystallization

The accuracy of nucleation parameter is a critical factor in the simulation of microstructural evolution during dynamic recrystallization(DRX).Based on the flow stress curve under hot deformation conditions,a new approach is proposed to identify the nucleation parameter during DRX.In this approach,a cellular automaton(CA) model is applied to quantitatively simulate the microstructural evolution and flow stress during hot deformation;and adaptive response surface method(ARSM) is applied as optimization model to provide input parameters to CA model and evaluate the outputs of the latter.By taking an oxygen-free high-conductivity(OFHC) copper as an example,the good agreement between the simulation results and the experimental observations demonstrates the availability of the proposed method.

Mechanical response of bridge piles in high-steep slopes and sensitivity study

The bridge piles located in high-steep slopes not only endure the loads from superstructure, but also the residual sliding force as well as the resistance from the slope. By introducing the Winkler foundation theory, the mechanical model of piles-soils-slopes system was established, and the equilibrium differential equations of pile were derived. Moreover, an analytic solution for identifying the model parameters was provided by means of power series method. A project with field measurement was compared with the proposed method. It is indicated that the lateral loads have great influences on the pile, the steep slope effect is indispensable, and reasonable diameter of the pile could enhance the bending ability. The internal force and displacements of pile are largely based upon the horizontal loads applied on pile, especially in upper part.

Unmanned wave glider heading model identification and control by artificial fish swarm algorithm

We introduce the artificial fish swarm algorithm for heading motion model identification and control parameter optimization problems for the“Ocean Rambler”unmanned wave glider(UWG).First,under certain assumptions,the rigid-flexible multi-body system of the UWG was simplified as a rigid system composed of“thruster+float body”,based on which a planar motion model of the UWG was established.Second,we obtained the model parameters using an empirical method combined with parameter identification,which means that some parameters were estimated by the empirical method.In view of the specificity and importance of the heading control,heading model parameters were identified through the artificial fish swarm algorithm based on tank test data,so that we could take full advantage of the limited trial data to factually describe the dynamic characteristics of the system.Based on the established heading motion model,parameters of the heading S-surface controller were optimized using the artificial fish swarm algorithm.Heading motion comparison and maritime control experiments of the“Ocean Rambler”UWG were completed.Tank test results show high precision of heading motion prediction including heading angle and yawing angular velocity.The UWG shows good control performance in tank tests and sea trials.The efficiency of the proposed method is verified.

Risk assessment of water inrush in tunnels based on attribute interval recognition theory

Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value;the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution;the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed.The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index.By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone,a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established.The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel,and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods.In addition,the results evaluated by this method,which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability,are more accurate and reliable.And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem.

Iterative identification of discrete-time output-error model with time delay

The problem of discrete-time model identification of industrial processes with time delay was investigated.An iterative and separable method is proposed to solve this problem,that is,the rational transfer function model parameters and time delay are alternately fixed to estimate each other.The instrumental variable technique is applied to guarantee consistent estimation against measurement noise.A noteworthy merit of the proposed method is that it can handle fractional time delay estimation,compared to existing methods commonly assuming that the time delay is an integer multiple of the sampling interval.The identifiability analysis for time delay is addressed and correspondingly,some guidelines are provided for practical implementation of the proposed method.Numerical and experimental examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Decentralized closed-loop identification and controller design for a kind of cascade processes

A new decentralized closcd-loop identification and predictive controller design method for a kind of cascade processes composed of several sub-processes is studied. This kind of cascade processcs has the characteristies of one-way connection. The process is divided into several two-input-two-output （TITO） sub-systems. The parameters of the first-order plus dead-time models for the transfer function matrices can be obtained using least squares method. Hence a distributed model predictive contn,ller is designed based on the coupling models of each sub-process. Simulation results on the temperature control of a reheating furnace are given to show the efficiency of the algorithm.

Model-based parameter identification of comprehensive friction behaviors for giant forging press

A new experimental apparatus was set up to investigate the actual fi-iction characteristics on the basis of speed control of the serve system.A modified friction model was proposed due to real time varying deformation resistance.The approach to identify the parameters of comprehensive friction behaviors based on the modified model was proposed and applied to the forging press.The impacts on parameters which the external load had were also investigated.The results show that friction force decreases with velocity in the low velocity regime whereas the friction force increases with the velocity in the high velocity regime under no external load.It is also shown that the Coulomb friction force,the maximum static friction force and the vicious friction coefficient change linearly with the external load taking the velocity at which the magnitude of the steady state friction force becomes minimum as the critical velocity.

Identification of Best Model for Equilibrium Data of Ethanol-Water Mixture

Four empirical models are tested for fitting the T-y-x equilibrium data of ethanol-water mixture by minimizing the Root Mean Square （RMS） between equilibrium data and theoretical points. The total pressure of the correspondent data is 101.3 kPa. All models parameters are also identified. The study suggests that NRTL model fits the equilibrium data best with RMS = 0.4 %.

Identification model of multi-layered neural network parameters and its applications in the petroleum production

This paper creates a LM (Levenberg-Marquardt) algorithm model which is appropriate to solve the problem about weights value of feedforward neural network. On the base of this model, we provide two applications in the oilfield production. Firstly, we simulated the functional relationships between the petrophysical and electrical properties of the rock by neural networks model, and studied oil saturation. Under the precision of data is confirmed, this method can reduce the number of experiments. Secondly, we simulated the relationships between investment and income by the neural networks model, and studied invest saturation point and income growth rate. It is very significant to guide the investment decision. The research result shows that the model is suitable for the modeling and identification of nonlinear systems due to the great fit characteristic of neural network and very fast convergence speed of LM algorithm.

Data-based model free hysteresis identification for a nonlinear structure

In the last two decades, the damage detection for civil engineering structures has been widely treated as a modal analysis problem and most of the currently available vibration-based system identification approaches are based on modal parameters, namely the natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping ratios, and/or their derivations, which are suitable for linear systems. Nonlinearity is generic in engineering structures. For example, the initiation and development of cracks in civil engineering structures as typical structural damages are nonlinear process. One of the major challenges in damage detection, early warning and damage prognosis is to obtain reasonably accurate identification of nonlinear performance such as hysteresis which is the direct indicator of damage initiation and development under dynamic excitations. In this study, a general data-based identification approach for hysteretic performance in form of nonlinear restoring force using structural dynamic responses and complete and incomplete excitation measurement time series was proposed and validated with a 4-story frame structure equipped with smart devices of magneto-theological （MR） damper to simulate nonlinear performance. Firstly, as an optimization method, the least-squares technique was employed to identify the system matrices of an equivalent linear system of the nonlinear structure model basing on the exci- tation force and the corresponding vibration measurements with impact test when complete and incomplete excitations; and secondly, the nonlinear restoring force of the structure was identified and compared with the test measurements fi- nally. Results show that the proposed data-based approach is capable of identifying the nonlinear behavior of engineering structures and can be employed to evaluate the damage initiation and development of different structure under dynamic loads.

Soft Sensor Model Derived from Wiener Model Structure: Modeling and Identification

The processes of building dynamic and static relationships between secondary and primary variables are usually integrated in most of nonlinear dynamic soft sensor models. However, such integration limits the estimation accuracy of soft sensor models. Wiener model effectively describes dynamic and static characteristics of a system with the structure of dynamic and static submodels in cascade. We propose a soft sensor model derived from Wiener model structure, which is an extension of Wiener model. Dynamic and static relationships between secondary and primary variables are built respectively to describe the dynamic and static characteristics of system. The feasibility of this model is verified. Then the expression of discrete model is derived for soft sensor system. Conjugate gradient algorithm is applied to identify the dynamic and static model parameters alternately. Corresponding update method for soft sensor system is also given. Case studies confirm the effectiveness of the proposed model, alternate identification algorithm, and update method.

Automatic Verification of Biochemical Network Using Model Checking Method

This study focuses on automatic searching and verifying methods for the teachability, transition logics and hierarchical structure in all possible paths of biological processes using model checking. The automatic search and verification for alternative paths within complex and large networks in biological process can provide a considerable amount of solutions, which is difficult to handle manually. Model checking is an automatic method for verifying if a circuit or a condition, expressed as a concurrent transition system, satisfies a set of properties expressed in a temporal logic, such as computational tree logic （CTL）. This article represents that model checking is feasible in biochemical network verification and it shows certain advantages over simulation for querying and searching of special behavioral properties in biochemical processes.