The influences of vegetation on intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) were examined using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3). Two 15-year numerical experiments were completed: the first was performed with ...The influences of vegetation on intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) were examined using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3). Two 15-year numerical experiments were completed: the first was performed with a realistic vegetation distribution (VEG run), and the second was identical to the VEG run except without land vegetation (NOVEG run). Generally speak- ing, CAM3 was able to reproduce the spatial distribution of the ISO, but the ISO intensity in the simulation was much weaker than that observed in nature: the 1SO has a relatively much stronger signal. A comparison of the VEG run with the NOVEG run revealed that the presence of vegetation usually produces a weak ISO. The vegetation effects on ISO intensity were significant over West Africa and South Asia, especially in the summer half-year. Vegetation also plays an important role in modulating ISO propagation. The eastward propagation of the ISO in the VEG run was clearer than that in the NOVEG run over the West African and Maritime Continent regions. The northward propagation of the ISO in the VEG run was more consistent with observation than that in the NOVEG run.展开更多
Using 1200 CPUs of the National Supercomputer TH-A1 and a parallel integral algorithm based on the 3500th-order Taylor expansion and the 4180-digit multiple precision data,we have done a reliable simulation of chaotic...Using 1200 CPUs of the National Supercomputer TH-A1 and a parallel integral algorithm based on the 3500th-order Taylor expansion and the 4180-digit multiple precision data,we have done a reliable simulation of chaotic solution of Lorenz equation in a rather long interval 0 t 10000 LTU(Lorenz time unit).Such a kind of mathematically reliable chaotic simulation has never been reported.It provides us a numerical benchmark for mathematically reliable long-term prediction of chaos.Besides,it also proposes a safe method for mathematically reliable simulations of chaos in a finite but long enough interval.In addition,our very fine simulations suggest that such a kind of mathematically reliable long-term prediction of chaotic solution might have no physical meanings,because the inherent physical micro-level uncertainty due to thermal fluctuation might quickly transfer into macroscopic uncertainty so that trajectories for a long enough time would be essentially uncertain in physics.展开更多
Reporting modeling results with uncertainty information can benefit decision making by decreasing the extent that variability exerts a disproportionate influence on the options selected. For making decisions with more...Reporting modeling results with uncertainty information can benefit decision making by decreasing the extent that variability exerts a disproportionate influence on the options selected. For making decisions with more confidence, the uncertainty interval should be as narrow as possible. Here, the soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics of the major paddy soil subgroup from 4 different paddy field regions of China (located in 4 counties under different climate-soil-management combinations) were modeled using the DeNitrification- DeComposition (DNDC) model for the period from 1980 to 2008. Uncertainty intervals associated with the SOC dynamics for these 4 subgroups were estimated by a long-term global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (i. e., the Sobolt method), and their sensitivities to 7 influential factors were quantified using the total effect sensitivity index. The results, modeled with high confidence, indicated that in the past 29 years, the studied paddy soils in Xinxing, Yixing, and Zhongjiang counties were carbon (C) sinks, while the paddy soil in Helong County was a C source. The 3 C sinks sequestered 12.2 (5.4, 19.6), 17.1 (8.9, 25.0), and 16.9 (-1.2, 33.6) t C ha-1 (values in the parentheses are the 5th and 95th percentiles, respectively). Conversely, the C source had a loss of -5.4 (-14.2, 0.06) t C ha-1 in the past 29 years. The 7 factors, which changed with the climate-soil-management context, exhibited variable influences on modeled SOC. Measures with potential to conserve or sequestrate more C into paddy soils, such as incorporating more crop residues into soils and reducing chemical fertilizer application rates, were recommended for specific soils based on the sensitivity analysis results.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program (Grant No.40905042)and Key Program (Grant No. 40830956))
文摘The influences of vegetation on intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) were examined using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3). Two 15-year numerical experiments were completed: the first was performed with a realistic vegetation distribution (VEG run), and the second was identical to the VEG run except without land vegetation (NOVEG run). Generally speak- ing, CAM3 was able to reproduce the spatial distribution of the ISO, but the ISO intensity in the simulation was much weaker than that observed in nature: the 1SO has a relatively much stronger signal. A comparison of the VEG run with the NOVEG run revealed that the presence of vegetation usually produces a weak ISO. The vegetation effects on ISO intensity were significant over West Africa and South Asia, especially in the summer half-year. Vegetation also plays an important role in modulating ISO propagation. The eastward propagation of the ISO in the VEG run was clearer than that in the NOVEG run over the West African and Maritime Continent regions. The northward propagation of the ISO in the VEG run was more consistent with observation than that in the NOVEG run.
基金partly supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11272209)National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2011CB309704)State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering of China (Grant No. GKZD010056).
文摘Using 1200 CPUs of the National Supercomputer TH-A1 and a parallel integral algorithm based on the 3500th-order Taylor expansion and the 4180-digit multiple precision data,we have done a reliable simulation of chaotic solution of Lorenz equation in a rather long interval 0 t 10000 LTU(Lorenz time unit).Such a kind of mathematically reliable chaotic simulation has never been reported.It provides us a numerical benchmark for mathematically reliable long-term prediction of chaos.Besides,it also proposes a safe method for mathematically reliable simulations of chaos in a finite but long enough interval.In addition,our very fine simulations suggest that such a kind of mathematically reliable long-term prediction of chaotic solution might have no physical meanings,because the inherent physical micro-level uncertainty due to thermal fluctuation might quickly transfer into macroscopic uncertainty so that trajectories for a long enough time would be essentially uncertain in physics.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41471177)the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX2-EW-QN404)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA05050509)
文摘Reporting modeling results with uncertainty information can benefit decision making by decreasing the extent that variability exerts a disproportionate influence on the options selected. For making decisions with more confidence, the uncertainty interval should be as narrow as possible. Here, the soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics of the major paddy soil subgroup from 4 different paddy field regions of China (located in 4 counties under different climate-soil-management combinations) were modeled using the DeNitrification- DeComposition (DNDC) model for the period from 1980 to 2008. Uncertainty intervals associated with the SOC dynamics for these 4 subgroups were estimated by a long-term global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (i. e., the Sobolt method), and their sensitivities to 7 influential factors were quantified using the total effect sensitivity index. The results, modeled with high confidence, indicated that in the past 29 years, the studied paddy soils in Xinxing, Yixing, and Zhongjiang counties were carbon (C) sinks, while the paddy soil in Helong County was a C source. The 3 C sinks sequestered 12.2 (5.4, 19.6), 17.1 (8.9, 25.0), and 16.9 (-1.2, 33.6) t C ha-1 (values in the parentheses are the 5th and 95th percentiles, respectively). Conversely, the C source had a loss of -5.4 (-14.2, 0.06) t C ha-1 in the past 29 years. The 7 factors, which changed with the climate-soil-management context, exhibited variable influences on modeled SOC. Measures with potential to conserve or sequestrate more C into paddy soils, such as incorporating more crop residues into soils and reducing chemical fertilizer application rates, were recommended for specific soils based on the sensitivity analysis results.