中美贸易争端影响的模拟分析

文章应用CGE模型对中美贸易争端的影响进行模拟,模拟结果显示:(1)中美一旦爆发贸易战,所有商品的世界出口价格指数将上升0. 04%,全球总投资将减少0. 20%,全球贸易总量将减少0. 34%,全球等价变化计算的社会福利将减少23214. 73百万美元;(2)针对于中美两国的模拟结果显示为,中美贸易争端将使得中国和美国的福利、GDP以及实际工资同步损失。且中国面临的恶化程度更为严重。相对的,世界其他地区,特别是中美经贸关系紧密的临近国家的福利和GDP将拥有不同程度的获得;(3)同时我们的分析还发现,这场贸易争端虽然能阻碍中国出口高技术产品的数量,却无法形成对中国产出和贸易技术水平的遏制。

烟道气辅助蒸汽吞吐油藏适应性研究

稠油热采的开发效果不仅与热采方式有关,同时也与注入的热介质关系密切。利用油藏数值模拟方法对比了不同地层和注热参数条件下烟道气辅助蒸汽吞吐与纯蒸汽吞吐的开发效果,并对烟道气辅助蒸汽吞吐增产效果的影响因素进行了敏感性分析,总结出了烟道气与蒸汽混注吞吐的油藏条件。渤海某稠油油田矿场实践表明,烟道气辅助蒸汽吞吐可改善该油田稠油开发效果,其产能是常规开采产能的2～3倍。

从货币媒介商品交换角度洞察M_0、M_1、M_2的变化

近几年来人们对货币供给量指标给予了极大的关注 ,但是对贷币供给量指标如何随商品交换而变化却鲜有研究。本文从货币媒介商品交换角度对M0 、M1、M2 作了模拟性分析 ,旨在引起人们对社会财富的计量 ,商品流和货币流的对应性 。

OPTIMIZATION FOR COMBAT CONFIGURATION OF AIR DEFENSE WEAPON SYSTEMS

At evaluating the combat effectiveness of the defense system, target′s probability to penetrate the defended area is a primary care taking index. In this paper, stochastic model to compete the probability that target penetrates the defended area along any flight path is established by the state analysis and statistical equilibrium analysis of stochastic service system theory. The simulated annealing algorithm is an enlightening random search method based on Monte Carlo recursion, and it can find global optimal solution by simulating annealing process. Combining stochastic model to compete the probability and simulated annealing algorithm, this paper establishes the method to solve problem quantitatively about combat configuration optimization of weapon systems. The calculated result shows that the perfect configuration for fire cells of the weapon is fast found by using this method, and this quantificational method for combat configuration is faster and more scientific than previous one based on principle via map fire field.

Mechanical response and stability analysis of rock mass in high geostress underground powerhouse caverns subjected to excavation

To investigate the stability of rock mass in high geostress underground powerhouse caverns subjected to excavation,a microseismic(MS)monitoring system was established and the discrete element method(DEM)-based numerical simulation was carried out.The tempo-spatial damage characteristics of rock mass were analyzed.The evolution laws of MS source parameters during the formation of a rock collapse controlled by high geostress and geological structure were investigated.Additionally,a three-dimensional DEM model of the underground powerhouse caverns was built to reveal the deformation characteristics of rock mass.The results indicated that the MS events induced by excavation of high geostress underground powerhouse caverns occurred frequently.The large-stake crown of the main powerhouse was the main damage area.Prior to the rock collapse,the MS event count and accumulated energy release increased rapidly,while the apparent stress sharply increased and then decreased.The amount and proportion of shear and mixed MS events remarkably increased.The maximum displacement was generally located near the spandrel areas.The MS monitoring data and numerical simulation were in good agreement,which can provide significant references for damage evaluation and disaster forecasting in high geostress underground powerhouse caverns.

Sensitivity analysis of geomechanical parameters affecting a wellbore stability

Wellbore stability analysis is a growing concern in oil industries. There are many parameters affecting the stability of a wellbore including geomechanical properties (e.g., elastic modulus, uni-axial compressive strength (UCS) and cohesion) and acting forces (e.g., field stresses and mud pressure). Accurate determination of these parameters is time-consuming, expensive and sometimes even impossible. This work offers a systematic sensitivity analysis to quantify the amount of each parameter’s effect on the stability of a wellbore. Maximum wellbore wall displacement is used as a stability factor to study the stability of a wellbore. A 3D finite difference method with Mohr model is used for the numerical modeling. The numerical model is verified against an analytical solution. A dimensionless sensitivity factor is developed in order to compare the results of various parameters in the sensitivity analysis. The results show a different order of importance of parameters based on rock strength. The most sensitive properties for a weak rock are the maximum horizontal stress, internal friction angle and formation pressure, respectively, while for a strong rock, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum horizontal stress, mud pressure and pore pressure, respectively. The amount of error in wellbore stability analysis inflicted by the error in estimation of each parameter was also derived.

Failure mechanism and stability analysis of the Zhenggang landslide in Yunnan Province of China using 3D particle flow code simulation

Based on the principle of 3D particle flow code,a numerical landslide run-out model is presented to simulate the failure process of the Zhenggang landslide(in southwestern China) under the effect of water after a rainfall.The relationship between the micro-mechanical parameters and the macro-shear strength of the grain material is determined through numerical calibrations.Then the rainfall effect is considered in numerical simulations and rain-induced sliding processes are performed,which help us to discuss the mechanism of deformation and failure of this landslide together with field observations.It shows the Zhenggang landslide would most likely be activated in Zone I and would gain momentum in Zone II.In order to prevent the potential disaster,a tailing dam is advised to be designed about 175 m downstream from the current landslide boundary of Zone II.Verified by field observations,the presented landslide model can reflect the failure mechanism after rainfall.It can also provide a method to predict the potential disaster and draft disaster prevention measures.

Stability analysis of cohesive soil embankment slope based on discrete element method

In order to study the safety factor and instability process of cohesive soil slope, the discrete element method(DEM) was applied. DEM software PFC2 D was used to simulate the triaxial test to study the influence of the particle micro parameters on the macroscopic characteristics of cohesive soil and calibrate the micro parameters of DEM model on this basis. Embankment slope stability analysis was carried out by strength reduction and gravity increase method, it is shown that the safety factor obtained by strength reduction method is more conservative, and the arc-shaped feature of the sliding surface under the gravity increase method is more obvious. Throughout the progressive failure process, the failure trends, maximum displacements, and velocity changes obtained by the two methods were consistent. When slope was destroyed, the upper part was cracked, the middle part was sheared, and the lower part was destroyed by extrusion. The conclusions of this paper can be applied to the safety factor calculation of cohesive soil slopes and the analysis of the instability process.

A New Car Following Model:Comprehensive Optimal Velocity Model

In this paper, we present a new ear-following model, i.e. comprehensive optimal velocity model （COVM）, whose optimal velocity function not only depends on the following distance of the preceding vehicle, but also depends on the velocity difference with preceding vehicle. Simulation results show that COVM is an improvement over the previous ones theoretically. Then, the stability condition of the model is obtained by the linear stability analysis, which has shown that the model could obtain a bigger stable region than previous models in the phase diagram. Through the nonlinear analysis, the Burgers, Korteweg-de Vries （KdV） and modified KdV （mKdV） equations are derived for the triangular shock wave, the soliton wave, and the kink-antikink soliton wave. At the same time, numerical simulations are also carried out to show that the model could simulate these density waves.

Numerical simulation study on the influence of the ground stress field on the stability of roadways

We adopt the concept of generalized plane strain to model a roadway in a stress field.This can avoid limitations caused by simplifying the stress analysis as plane strain.FLAC3D was used to investigate the maximum tensile stress and displacement of a roadway in a known stress field for angles,α,between the roadway axial direction and the maximum principal stress of 0°,30°,45°,60° and 90°.This theory was applied to the analysis of an engineering case.The results indicate that stress and displacement of the surrounding rock increase as the angle,α,increases.This provides some significant guidance for a reasonable layout of roadways in a known stress field.

Comparisons of the temperature and humidity profiles of reanalysis products with shipboard GPS sounding measurements obtained during the 2018 Eastern Indian Ocean Open Cruise

It is important to be able to characterize the thermal conditions over the equatorial Indian Ocean for both weather forecasting and climate prediction. This study compared the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) temperature and relative humidity profiles from three reanalysis products (JRA-55, MERRA2, and FGOALS-f2) with shipboard global positioning system (GPS) sounding measurements obtained during the Eastern Indian Ocean Open Cruise in spring 2018. The FGOALS-f2 reanalysis product is based on the initialization module of a sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction system with a nudging-based data assimilation method. The results indicated that:(1) both JRA-55 and MERRA2 were reliable in characterizing the temperature profile from 850 to 600 hPa, with a maximum deviation of about <0.5℃. Both datasets showed a large negative deviation below 825 hPa, with a maximum bias of about 2℃ at 1000 hPa and 1.5℃ at 900 hPa, respectively.(2) JRA-55 showed good performance in characterizing the relative humidity profile above 850 hPa, with a maximum deviation of < 8%, while it showed much wetter conditions below 850 hPa. MERRA2 overestimated the relative humidity in the middle to lower troposphere, with a maximum deviation of about 15% at 925 hPa.(3) The FGOALS-f2 reanalysis product more accurately reproduced the temperature profile in the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the EEIO than that in JRA-55 and MERRA2, but showed much wetter conditions than the GPS sounding observations, with a maximum deviation of up to 20% at 600 hPa. Future applications of GPS sounding datasets are discussed.

Simulation and analysis of airflow stability during fire in mine belt roadway

According to fluid dynamics analysis during the fire, the criteria k-ε two-equation model for solving three-dimensional turbulence was determined, the pollutants generated in the fire disaster were set by adopting Mixture multiphase flow, and the SIMPLE algorithm was used for solving on the basis of comprehensive consideration on the heat radia- tion and components transmission during fire. By simulating the airflow flowing state inside the tunnel during fire disaster of downward ventilation, drift ventilation, and ascensional ventilation, respectively, with regard to the actual situation of No.l, No.3, and No.5 belt roadway in Kongzhuang Coal Mine, the velocity vector distributions of pollutants under different inlet air volumes were obtained, and the damage degree and influential factors of disaster were also clear, which is helpful to control and avoid disaster during belt roadway fire.

Numerical simulation and experiment analysis of improving permeability by deep-hole presplitting explosion in high gassy and low permeability coal seam

Created a new damage model for explosive for LS-DYNA3D,taking advantageof the Taylor method aimed at the high gassy and low permeability coal seam,and numericallysimulated and analyzed the deep-hole presplitting explosion.The entire processof explosion was represented,including cracks caused by dynamic pressure,transmissionand vibration superposition of stress waves,as well as cracks growth driven by gas generatedby explosion.The influence of the cracks generated in the process of explosion andthe performance of improving permeability caused by the difference of interval between.explosive holes were analyzed.A reasonable interval between explosive holes of deepholepresplitting explosions in high gassy and low permeability coal seams was proposed,and the resolution of gas drainage in high gassy and low permeability coal seam was putforward.

Parametric analysis on buffeting performance of a long-span high-speed railway suspension bridge

The buffeting performance of kilometer-level high-speed railway suspension bridges has a great impact on the smooth operation of high-speed trains.To investigate the buffeting performance of the structure significantly different from traditional suspension bridges,the first long-span high-speed railway suspension bridge,Wufengshan Yangtze River Bridge(WYRB),is taken as a numerical example to demonstrate the effects of structural parameters and wind field parameters on the buffeting responses.Based on the design information,the spatial finite element model(FEM)of WYRB is established before testing its accuracy.The fluctuating wind fields are simulated via both classical and stochastic wave based spectral representation method(SRM).Finite element method is further taken to analyze the parametric sensitivity on wind induced buffeting responses in time domain.The results show that the vertical displacement is more sensitive to the changing dead load than the lateral and torsional ones.The larger stiffness of the main girder and the lower sag-to-span ratio are both helpful to reduce the buffeting responses.Wind spectrum and coherence function are key influencing factors to the responses so setting proper wind field parameters are essential in the wind-resistant design stage.The analytical results can provide references for wind resistance analysis and selection of structural and fluctuating wind field parameters for similar long-span high-speed railway suspension bridges.

Finite element analysis and simulation for cold precision forging of a helical gear

To investigate the effects of billet geometry on the cold precision forging process of a helical gear, six different billet geometries were designed utilizing the relief-hole principle. And the influences of the billet geometry on the forming load and the deformation uniformity were analyzed by three-dimensional （3D） finite element method （FEM） under the commercial software DEFORM 3D. The billet geometry was optimized to meet lower forming load and better deformation uniformity requirement. Deformation mechanism was studied through the distribution of flow velocity field and effective strain field. The forging experiments of the helical gear were successfully performed using lead material as a model material under the same process conditions used in the FE simulations. The results show that the forming load decreases as the diameter of relief-hole do increases, but the effect of do on the deformation uniformity is very complicated. The forming load is lower and the deformation is more uniform when do is 10 mm.

STUDY ON PRODUCTION SYSTEM OPERATION REGULARITY OF FULLY MECHANIZED SUBLEVEL CAVING MINING AND SEQUENTIAL OPERATION

According to a lot of practical data in Liujialiang Mine and reliability theory and result of computer simulation, operation regularity of fully mechanized sublevel caving mining production system in the condition of gently inclined complicated geological structure and production shortcomings are found out and reliability of system and output of the working face are predicted finally.

Regional Climate Change and Uncertainty Analysis based on Four Regional Climate Model Simulations over China

Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.

Prediction of multi-borehole undermine coalbed gas drainage

By analyzing the flow character of a single drainage borehole in its effectingtime and the correlative theory introduced,the reason for 'inflexion' appearance in theflow character curve of the single draining borehole in a multi-borehole was studied.Takingthe theory of permeation fluid mechanics and so on as basis,the coalbed gas flowmodel was set up,and the numerical simulation analyzer was built for undermine gasproducts.With the results from the analyzer,the gas capacity could be calculated underdifferent conditions and comparisons made with the site measurement data.

Similarity theory for the physical simulation of natural gas hydrate reservoir development

In order to apply physical simulation results to natural gas hydrate reservoir parameters to provide a theoretical framework for the design of a development plan,an analytical equation method was used to obtain the similarity criteria of natural gas hydrate reservoir development by physical simulation,based on a mathematical model of natural gas hydrate development.Given the approach of numerical simulation,a sensitivity analysis for all parameters was carried out,which specifically demonstrated that initial temperature is the most important parameter.Parameters of thermal conductivity coefficients are not necessary for conducting the NGH dissociation process,which will fundamentally simplify the design and establishment of the model.The analysis provides a sound theoretical basis and design principles for particular similarity.

Individualization of Head Related Impulse Responses Using Division Analysis

For Virtual Reality(VR) to be truly immersive, it needs convincing sound to match. Due to the diversity of individual's anthropometric measurements, the individualized customization technology is needed to get convincing sound. In this paper, we proposed a simple and effective method for modeling relationships between anthropometric measurements and Head-related Impulse Response(HRIR). Considering the relationship between anthropometric measurements and different HRIR parts is complicated, we divided the HRIRs into small segments and carried out regression analysis between anthropometric measurements and each segment to establish relationship model. The results of objective simulation and subjective test indicate that the model can generate individualize HRIRs from a series of anthropometric measurements. With the individualized HRIRs, we can get more accurate acoustic localization sense than using non-individualized HRIRs.