This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions (1951-2004). Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (total a...This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions (1951-2004). Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (total available water) net irrigation requirements NIRs range from 0 to 380 mm. In soils of small TAW, NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia/Silistra are about 100 mm smaller than in Plovdiv while in Sandanski they are 30-110 mm larger. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability (29% 〈 Cv 〈 72%). Considering an economical RYD (relative yield decrease) threshold, 32% of years are risky when TA Wis large in Plovdiv that is double than in Sofia and half than in Sandanski. In North Bulgaria the risky years are 10% in Pleven/Silistra that is half than in Lom. In Plovdiv region reliable relationships (R2 〉 91%) were found relating the SPI2 "July-Aug." with simulated RYD of rainfed maize while remaining relationships were less accurate (73% 〈 R2 〈 86%). Economical losses are produced when High Peak Season SPI2 〈 + 0.20 in Sandanski, SPI2 〈 - 0.50 in Plovdiv and SPI2 〈 - 0.90 in Sofia. In North Bulgaria the SPI2 threshold ranges from - 0.75 to - 1.50. Derived reliable relationships and SPl-thresholds are used for drought vulnerability mapping.展开更多
Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural soils influence soil quality and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Dry farmland covers more than 70% of the whole cropland area in China and plays an...Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural soils influence soil quality and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Dry farmland covers more than 70% of the whole cropland area in China and plays an important role in mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In this study, 4109 dry farmland soil polygons were extracted using spatial overlay analysis of the soil layer (1:500000) and the land use layer (1:500000) to support Century model simulations of SOC dynamics for dry farmland in Anhui Province, East China from 1980 to 2008. Considering two field-validation sites, the Century model performed relatively well in modeling SOC dynamics for dry farmland in the province. The simulated results showed that the area-weighted mean soil organic carbon density (SOCD) of dry farmland increased from 18.77 Mg C ha1 in 1980 to 23.99 Mg C ha1 in 2008 with an average sequestration rate of 0.18 Mg C ha1 year?1. Approximately 94.9% of the total dry farmland area sequestered carbon while 5.1% had carbon lost. Over the past 29 years, the net SOC gain in dry farmland soils of the province was 19.37 Tg, with an average sequestration rate of 0.67 Tg C year1. Augmentation of SOC was primarily due to increased consumption of nitrogen fertilizer and farmyard manure. Moreover, SOC dynamics were highly differentiated among dry farmland soil groups. The integration of the Century model with a fine-scale soil database approach could be conveniently utilized as a tool for the accurate simulation of SOC dynamics at the regional scale.展开更多
Uncertainties in some key parameters in land surface models severely restrict the improvement of model capacity for successful simulation of surface-atmosphere interaction. These key parameters are related to soil moi...Uncertainties in some key parameters in land surface models severely restrict the improvement of model capacity for successful simulation of surface-atmosphere interaction. These key parameters are related to soil moisture and heat transfer and phy- sical processes in the vegetation canopy as well as other important aerodynamic processes. In the present study, measurements of surface-atmosphere interaction at two observation stations that are located in the typical semi-arid region of China, Tongyu Station in Jilin Province and Yuzhong Station in Gansu Province, are combined with the planetary boundary layer theory to estimate the value of two key aerodynamic parameters, i.e., surface roughness length zorn and excess resistance κB-1. Multiple parameterization schemes have been used in the study to obtain values for surface roughness length and excess resistance κB-1 at the two stations. Results indicate that Zorn has distinct seasonal and inter-annual variability. For the type of surface with low-height vegetation, there is a large difference between the default value of Zorn in the land surface model and that obtained from this study, κB-1 demonstrates a significant diurnal variation and seasonal variability. Using the modified scheme for the estimation of Zom and κB-1 in the land surface model, it is found that simulations of sensible heat flux over the semi-arid region have been greatly improved. These results suggest that it is necessary to further evaluate the default values of various parameters used in land surface models based on field measurements. The approach to combine field measurements with atmospheric boundary layer theory to retrieve realistic values for key parameters in land surface models presents a great potential in the improvement of modeling studies of surface-atmosphere interaction.展开更多
文摘This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions (1951-2004). Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (total available water) net irrigation requirements NIRs range from 0 to 380 mm. In soils of small TAW, NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia/Silistra are about 100 mm smaller than in Plovdiv while in Sandanski they are 30-110 mm larger. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability (29% 〈 Cv 〈 72%). Considering an economical RYD (relative yield decrease) threshold, 32% of years are risky when TA Wis large in Plovdiv that is double than in Sofia and half than in Sandanski. In North Bulgaria the risky years are 10% in Pleven/Silistra that is half than in Lom. In Plovdiv region reliable relationships (R2 〉 91%) were found relating the SPI2 "July-Aug." with simulated RYD of rainfed maize while remaining relationships were less accurate (73% 〈 R2 〈 86%). Economical losses are produced when High Peak Season SPI2 〈 + 0.20 in Sandanski, SPI2 〈 - 0.50 in Plovdiv and SPI2 〈 - 0.90 in Sofia. In North Bulgaria the SPI2 threshold ranges from - 0.75 to - 1.50. Derived reliable relationships and SPl-thresholds are used for drought vulnerability mapping.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos.KZCX2-YW-Q1-07 and KZCX2-YW-Q1-15)the National Basic Research Program (973 Program) of China (No.2010CB950702)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40921061)
文摘Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural soils influence soil quality and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Dry farmland covers more than 70% of the whole cropland area in China and plays an important role in mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In this study, 4109 dry farmland soil polygons were extracted using spatial overlay analysis of the soil layer (1:500000) and the land use layer (1:500000) to support Century model simulations of SOC dynamics for dry farmland in Anhui Province, East China from 1980 to 2008. Considering two field-validation sites, the Century model performed relatively well in modeling SOC dynamics for dry farmland in the province. The simulated results showed that the area-weighted mean soil organic carbon density (SOCD) of dry farmland increased from 18.77 Mg C ha1 in 1980 to 23.99 Mg C ha1 in 2008 with an average sequestration rate of 0.18 Mg C ha1 year?1. Approximately 94.9% of the total dry farmland area sequestered carbon while 5.1% had carbon lost. Over the past 29 years, the net SOC gain in dry farmland soils of the province was 19.37 Tg, with an average sequestration rate of 0.67 Tg C year1. Augmentation of SOC was primarily due to increased consumption of nitrogen fertilizer and farmyard manure. Moreover, SOC dynamics were highly differentiated among dry farmland soil groups. The integration of the Century model with a fine-scale soil database approach could be conveniently utilized as a tool for the accurate simulation of SOC dynamics at the regional scale.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2011CB952002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41475063+1 种基金41005047)Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University,and the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘Uncertainties in some key parameters in land surface models severely restrict the improvement of model capacity for successful simulation of surface-atmosphere interaction. These key parameters are related to soil moisture and heat transfer and phy- sical processes in the vegetation canopy as well as other important aerodynamic processes. In the present study, measurements of surface-atmosphere interaction at two observation stations that are located in the typical semi-arid region of China, Tongyu Station in Jilin Province and Yuzhong Station in Gansu Province, are combined with the planetary boundary layer theory to estimate the value of two key aerodynamic parameters, i.e., surface roughness length zorn and excess resistance κB-1. Multiple parameterization schemes have been used in the study to obtain values for surface roughness length and excess resistance κB-1 at the two stations. Results indicate that Zorn has distinct seasonal and inter-annual variability. For the type of surface with low-height vegetation, there is a large difference between the default value of Zorn in the land surface model and that obtained from this study, κB-1 demonstrates a significant diurnal variation and seasonal variability. Using the modified scheme for the estimation of Zom and κB-1 in the land surface model, it is found that simulations of sensible heat flux over the semi-arid region have been greatly improved. These results suggest that it is necessary to further evaluate the default values of various parameters used in land surface models based on field measurements. The approach to combine field measurements with atmospheric boundary layer theory to retrieve realistic values for key parameters in land surface models presents a great potential in the improvement of modeling studies of surface-atmosphere interaction.