Based on the 1961-1990 observed daily precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the HadCM3 model data for IPCC SRES A1B climate projections, the simulation capabilities of ...Based on the 1961-1990 observed daily precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the HadCM3 model data for IPCC SRES A1B climate projections, the simulation capabilities of the BP-CCA downscaling approach for extreme precipitation indices of the current climate are assessed by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA). In addition, future extreme precipitation indices in the middle and late 21st century are projected. The results show that simulation capability of the HadCM3 for regional climate characteristics can be effectively improved by the downscaling approach, with 30%-100% reduction of the relative errors of the climatological mean state of extreme precipitation indices. However, the downscaling results still show wetter winter and dryer summer than the observation. Under the SRES A1B emission scenario, frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, and the estimated increasing rate is higher for extreme precipitation indices than for mean precipitation index; and in summer than in winter. Extreme precipitations in the middle and late 21st century are expected to increase by 14% and 25% respectively in winter, and by 24% and 32% respectively in summer.展开更多
To study the relationship between sediment transportation and saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang (Yangtze) estuary, a three-dimensional numerical model for temperature, salinity, velocity field, and suspended sedim...To study the relationship between sediment transportation and saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang (Yangtze) estuary, a three-dimensional numerical model for temperature, salinity, velocity field, and suspended sediment concentration was established based on the ECOMSED model. Using this model, sediment transportation in the flood season of 2005 was simulated for the Changjiang estuary. A comparison between simulated results and observation data for the tidal level, flow velocity and direction, salinity and suspended sediment concentration indicated that they were consistent in overall. Based on model verification, the simulation of saltwater intrusion and its effect on sediment in the Changjiang estuary was analyzed in detail. The saltwater intrusion in the estuary including the formation, evolution, and disappearance of saltwater wedge and the induced vertical circulation were reproduced, and the crucial impact of the wedge on cohesive and non-cohesive suspended sediment distribution and transportation were successfully simulated. The result shows that near the salinity front, the simulated concentrations of both cohesive and non-cohesive suspended sediment at the surface layer had a strong relationship with the simulated velocity, especially when considering a 1-hour lag. However, in the bottom layer, there was no obvious correlation between them, because the saltwater wedge and its inducing vertical circulation may have resuspended loose sediment on the bed, thus forming a high-concentration area near the bottom even if the velocity near the bottom was very low during the transition phase from flood to ebb.展开更多
Different types of vegetation occupy different geomorphology and water gradient environments in the San- jiang Plain, indicating that the soil moisture dynamics and water balance patterns of the different vegetation c...Different types of vegetation occupy different geomorphology and water gradient environments in the San- jiang Plain, indicating that the soil moisture dynamics and water balance patterns of the different vegetation communi- ties might differ from each other. In this paper, a lowland system, perpendicular to the Nongjiang River in the Honghe National Nature Reserve (HNNR), was selected as the study area. The area was occupied by the non-wetland plant forest and the typical wetland plant meadow. The Microsoft Windows-based finite element analysis software package for simulating water, heat, and solute transport in variably saturated porous media (HYDRUS), which can quantita- tively simulate water, heat, and/or solute movement in variably-saturated porous media, was used to simulate soil moisture dynamics in the root zone (20-40 cm) of those two plant communities during the growing season in 2005. The simulation results for soil moisture were in a good agreement with measured data, with the coefficient of determi- nation (R2) of 0.44-0.69 and root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 0.0291 cm3/cm3 and 0.0457 cm3/cm3, and index of agreement (d) being from I).612 to 0.968. During the study period, the volumetric soil moisture content of meadow increased with the depth and its coefficient of variation decreased with the depth (from 20 cm to 40 cm), while under the forest the soil moisture content at different depths varied irregularly. The calculated result of water budget showed that the water budget deficit of the meadow was higher than that of the forest, suggesting that the meadow is more likely to suffer from water stress than the forest. The quantitative simulation by HYDRUS in this study did not take surface runoff and plant growth processes into account. Improved root water uptake and surface runoff models will be needed for higher accuracy in further researches.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (No. 40875058)the National Key Basic Research Program (No. 2012CB955200) of Chinafunded by the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Edusation Institutions
文摘Based on the 1961-1990 observed daily precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the HadCM3 model data for IPCC SRES A1B climate projections, the simulation capabilities of the BP-CCA downscaling approach for extreme precipitation indices of the current climate are assessed by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA). In addition, future extreme precipitation indices in the middle and late 21st century are projected. The results show that simulation capability of the HadCM3 for regional climate characteristics can be effectively improved by the downscaling approach, with 30%-100% reduction of the relative errors of the climatological mean state of extreme precipitation indices. However, the downscaling results still show wetter winter and dryer summer than the observation. Under the SRES A1B emission scenario, frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, and the estimated increasing rate is higher for extreme precipitation indices than for mean precipitation index; and in summer than in winter. Extreme precipitations in the middle and late 21st century are expected to increase by 14% and 25% respectively in winter, and by 24% and 32% respectively in summer.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40406025)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2006AA09Z157)
文摘To study the relationship between sediment transportation and saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang (Yangtze) estuary, a three-dimensional numerical model for temperature, salinity, velocity field, and suspended sediment concentration was established based on the ECOMSED model. Using this model, sediment transportation in the flood season of 2005 was simulated for the Changjiang estuary. A comparison between simulated results and observation data for the tidal level, flow velocity and direction, salinity and suspended sediment concentration indicated that they were consistent in overall. Based on model verification, the simulation of saltwater intrusion and its effect on sediment in the Changjiang estuary was analyzed in detail. The saltwater intrusion in the estuary including the formation, evolution, and disappearance of saltwater wedge and the induced vertical circulation were reproduced, and the crucial impact of the wedge on cohesive and non-cohesive suspended sediment distribution and transportation were successfully simulated. The result shows that near the salinity front, the simulated concentrations of both cohesive and non-cohesive suspended sediment at the surface layer had a strong relationship with the simulated velocity, especially when considering a 1-hour lag. However, in the bottom layer, there was no obvious correlation between them, because the saltwater wedge and its inducing vertical circulation may have resuspended loose sediment on the bed, thus forming a high-concentration area near the bottom even if the velocity near the bottom was very low during the transition phase from flood to ebb.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40871241,41001050)Direction Project of Chinese Academy of Science (KZCX2-YW-Q06-03)
文摘Different types of vegetation occupy different geomorphology and water gradient environments in the San- jiang Plain, indicating that the soil moisture dynamics and water balance patterns of the different vegetation communi- ties might differ from each other. In this paper, a lowland system, perpendicular to the Nongjiang River in the Honghe National Nature Reserve (HNNR), was selected as the study area. The area was occupied by the non-wetland plant forest and the typical wetland plant meadow. The Microsoft Windows-based finite element analysis software package for simulating water, heat, and solute transport in variably saturated porous media (HYDRUS), which can quantita- tively simulate water, heat, and/or solute movement in variably-saturated porous media, was used to simulate soil moisture dynamics in the root zone (20-40 cm) of those two plant communities during the growing season in 2005. The simulation results for soil moisture were in a good agreement with measured data, with the coefficient of determi- nation (R2) of 0.44-0.69 and root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 0.0291 cm3/cm3 and 0.0457 cm3/cm3, and index of agreement (d) being from I).612 to 0.968. During the study period, the volumetric soil moisture content of meadow increased with the depth and its coefficient of variation decreased with the depth (from 20 cm to 40 cm), while under the forest the soil moisture content at different depths varied irregularly. The calculated result of water budget showed that the water budget deficit of the meadow was higher than that of the forest, suggesting that the meadow is more likely to suffer from water stress than the forest. The quantitative simulation by HYDRUS in this study did not take surface runoff and plant growth processes into account. Improved root water uptake and surface runoff models will be needed for higher accuracy in further researches.