基于模拟统计法的水声对抗试验航路优化

在建立水声对抗试验航路优化评估标准的基础上,利用Monte_Carlo方法,研究了悬浮式和自航式声诱饵对抗声自导鱼雷的优化试验航路问题,并对建立的模型进行了计算机仿真。仿真结果表明,该方法对于研究水声对抗试验航路优化是一种行之有效的方法。

基于统计模拟试验法的主机组故障周期分析

智能巡检是水电厂设备智能维护的重要内容,为了实现智能巡检,确定不同设备的理论故障周期是关键。设备系统的寿命分布具有一定的规律,由这一规律确定的理论设备故障周期是确定巡检周期的重要依据。假定同一设备系统具有恒定的故障率,采用寿命指数分布模型描述设备系统可靠度与理论故障周期之间的关系(可靠度函数),建立并利用设备系统故障树的方法描述水轮发电机组故障与其子系统故障之间的关系,通过统计模拟试验法统计模拟子系统故障发生情况,并以该统计模拟结果为依据,拟合得出指数分布可靠度函数中的关键参数。利用可靠度函数,能够求得不同可靠度对应的预期可靠寿命,可为水轮发电机组理论故障周期的确定提供依据。

无资料地区结合数值模拟分析计算径流的方法研究

为分析计算无资料地区的径流量,以云南省瑞丽市帕色河水库上游流域为例,进行参考站的选取及资料分析,采用水文比拟法、径流等值线法、Mike11 NAM径流模拟方法计算帕色河水库上游流域的径流量,并综合分析各方法计算结果的影响因素、流域内各时段的径流变化及邻近流域水文统计参数。结果表明采用径流等值线法在该流域更为合理、可靠。

区域供水系统干旱历时特性综合分析

根据区域供水系统中供水水库(群)的蓄水状态及其运行调度策略在满足区域供水目标方面的重要作用,提出了以水库(群)的时段初始蓄水量与时段内来水量之和,以及时段内供水系统的目标需水量作为主要控制参数,以两者的差值正、负来表达供水系统处于非干旱状态和干旱状态的区域干旱鉴别方法。为了多角度地分析干旱和非干旱历时分布、转移概率以及干旱重现期等干旱历时特性以较全面地掌握区域干旱事件特征,针对一具体区域供水系统,运用模拟统计法和概率解析法两种技术手段来研究区域干旱历时特性,同时针对两种方法的计算结果差异,指出了各种方法的特征以及产生差异的原因。

Accuracy Analysis of Assembly Success Rate with Monte Carlo Simulations

Monte Carlo simulation was applied to Assembly Success Bate (ASK) analyses. ASR of two peg-in-hole robot assemblies was used as an example by taking component parts' sizes, manufacturing tolerances and robot repeatability into account. A statistic arithmetic expression was proposed and deduced in this paper, which offers an alternative method of estimating the accuracy of ASR, without having to repeat the simulations. This statistic method also helps to choose a suitable sample size, if error reduction is desired. Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrated the feasibility of the method.

Science Letters:Visual odometry for road vehicles—feasibility analysis

Estimating the global position of a road vehicle without using GPS is a challenge that many scientists look forward to solving in the near future. Normally, inertial and odometry sensors are used to complement GPS measures in an attempt to provide a means for maintaining vehicle odometry during GPS outage. Nonetheless, recent experiments have demonstrated that computer vision can also be used as a valuable source to provide what can be denoted as visual odometry. For this purpose, vehicle motion can be estimated using a non-linear, photogrametric approach based on RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC). The results prove that the detection and selection of relevant feature points is a crucial factor in the global performance of the visual odometry algorithm. The key issues for further improvement are discussed in this letter.

SATVPC:Secure-agent-based trustworthy virtual private cloud model in open computing environments

Private clouds and public clouds are turning mutually into the open integrated cloud computing environment,which can aggregate and utilize WAN and LAN networks computing,storage,information and other hardware and software resources sufficiently,but also bring a series of security,reliability and credibility problems.To solve these problems,a novel secure-agent-based trustworthy virtual private cloud model named SATVPC was proposed for the integrated and open cloud computing environment.Through the introduction of secure-agent technology,SATVPC provides an independent,safe and trustworthy computing virtual private platform for multi-tenant systems.In order to meet the needs of the credibility of SATVPC and mandate the trust relationship between each task execution agent and task executor node suitable for their security policies,a new dynamic composite credibility evaluation mechanism was presented,including the credit index computing algorithm and the credibility differentiation strategy.The experimental system shows that SATVPC and the credibility evaluation mechanism can ensure the security of open computing environments with feasibility.Experimental results and performance analysis also show that the credit indexes computing algorithm can evaluate the credibilities of task execution agents and task executor nodes quantitatively,correctly and operationally.

An improvement to the simulation of phase-change heat-transfer during soil freezing and thawing

A new variable time step method,which is called the backwards calculating time step method,is presented in this paper.It allows numerical simulation of soil freezing and thawing while avoiding "phase change missing and overflowing".A sensitive heat capacity model is introduced through which the calculation errors are analyzed.Then the equation using the self-adjusted time step is presented and solved using finite differences.Through this equation,the time needed for a space cell to reach the phase change point temperature is calculated.Using this time allows the time step to be adjusted so that errors caused by "phase change missing and overflowing" are successfully eliminated.Above all,the obvious features of this method are an accelerated rate for adjusting the time step and simplifing the computations.An actual example proves that this method can accurately calculate the temperature fields during soil freezing and thawing.It is an improvement over traditional methods and can be widely used on complicated multi-dimensional phase change problems.

Guidelines for Low-Cost, Energy-Efficient House in Iraq

The goal of this study is to determine specific guidelines for Iraqi architects to contribute to the design and composition of energy-efficient housing units within the limits of a normal budget, locally available materials and technologies. These units can provide comfort despite the current energy situation in Iraq. The study is based on a computer simulation for a reference building in Baghdad, which has been selected according to the urban conditions, building legislations, housing market and statistics. The final results displayed the main recommendations and the possibility to achieve up to 50% energy reduction with a pay-back period not exceeding two years in some cases. There are some measures that have big energy saving potential. Yet, some of the measures may require big investment or have some bad environmental impacts. Some other good measures are already being implemented.

An optimizing algorithm of static task scheduling problem based on hybrid genetic algorithm

To reduce resources consumption of parallel computation system, a static task scheduling opti- mization method based on hybrid genetic algorithm is proposed and validated, which can shorten the scheduling length of parallel tasks with precedence constraints. Firstly, the global optimal model and constraints are created to demonstrate the static task scheduling problem in heterogeneous distributed computing systems（HeDCSs）. Secondly, the genetic population is coded with matrix and used to search the total available time span of the processors, and then the simulated annealing algorithm is introduced to improve the convergence speed and overcome the problem of easily falling into local minimum point, which exists in the traditional genetic algorithm. Finally, compared to other existed scheduling algorithms such as dynamic level scheduling （ DLS）, heterogeneous earliest finish time （HEFr）, and longest dynamic critical path（ LDCP）, the proposed approach does not merely de- crease tasks schedule length, but also achieves the maximal resource utilization of parallel computa- tion system by extensive experiments.

Influence of natural rainfall variability on the evaluation of artificial precipitation enhancement

Evaluating cloud seeding effects is one of the most critical issues in artificial precipitation enhancement experiments. However, the evaluation is not straightforward because there is natural rainfall variability, which subjects the atmosphere to spatiotemporal instabilities. The aim of this study is to analyze natural rainfall variability using the modern statistical simulation method, "bootstrap", to analyze its influence on the evaluation of seeding activities and to take proper measures to control the influence. The study is based on the 1997?2007 airborne seeding macro records and the daily precipitation data in Jilin Province. The influence of natural rainfall variability can be reduced through three approaches: the increase of the supposed "seeded" sample size N, the rejection of outliers, and the selection of similar control units. A larger N leads to smaller calculated precipitation variability and detectable lower limits of seeding effects. When N is near 470 and the seeding effect is between 20% and 30%, the confidence level reaches 90%. For a single seeding operation, the case deletion model that rejects strong influence points and selects similar control units is established to control the influence of natural precipitation variability, which obviously improves the evaluation of artificial precipitation enhancement. The results demonstrate that the relative seeding effect in Jilin Province is concentrated mainly in the range of 0 to 30%, with an average of 11.95%, and has no significant linear relationship with the actual precipitation amount. However, the fluctuation amplitude of the relative effect decreases as the precipitation amount rises.

Jackknifed random weighting for Cox proportional hazards model

The Cox proportional hazards model is the most used statistical model in the analysis of survival time data.Recently,a random weighting method was proposed to approximate the distribution of the maximum partial likelihood estimate for the regression coefficient in the Cox model.This method was shown not as sensitive to heavy censoring as the bootstrap method in simulation studies but it may not be second-order accurate as was shown for the bootstrap approximation.In this paper,we propose an alternative random weighting method based on one-step linear jackknife pseudo values and prove the second accuracy of the proposed method.Monte Carlo simulations are also performed to evaluate the proposed method for fixed sample sizes.