我国大豆生产波动动因分析——基于省际面板模型的实证研究

在我国大豆生产波动频繁的情况下,找出影响大豆单产、种植面积的影响因素是实现“提单产、稳面积”的首要举措。研究采用1999~2020年21个省份面板数据,在分析大豆单产、种植面积的变化趋势基础上,根据大豆单产增减趋势,把大豆产区划分成增产区、减产区和波动区,采用改进的面板数据模型分别对三个产区的大豆单产和种植面积的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,机械化收割、产研结合、农药投入、小型拖拉机的投入是影响不同区域大豆单产的显著因素;机械化耕作是提升所有区域种植面积的显著因素,玉米种植面积、化肥投入、农药投入、灌溉条件、科研资金与人员投入、产研结合、机械化收割是影响不同区域大豆种植面积显著因素。根据分析,提出了相应政策建议。

思想品德课教学中开展社会实践活动模式的探析

随着思想品德课教学具有时代性、实践性、思想性。在思想品德课中增加社会实践活动,收集社会实践的模式,符合新课标提出的以德育为核心,以培养创新精神和实践能力为重点,全面推进素质教育,有利于学生的自我发展、自我完善、健全学生人格,实现人生价值。

基于切分模板的实时跟踪算法

相关匹配算法是一种经典的匹配算法 ,通过计算模板图像和待匹配图像的互相关值来确定匹配的程度 ,具有很高的准确性和适应性 ,在目标跟踪中得到了广泛应用。但是相关匹配算法计算耗时过于庞大 ,难以达到实时要求 ,并且当目标在模板中所占比例很小时 ,很难确定模板的准确位置 ,使得此算法在实时目标跟踪中难以得到应用。文中在相关匹配的基础上提出了一种基于切分模板的实时跟踪算法。匹配的模板被分为几个部分 ,每个部分均有不同的加权值 ,最后的相关匹配度为各部分匹配度的加权和。算法中还设置了一个不是实时更新的加权模板 ,以提高算法的抗干扰能力 ,并采用金字塔搜索算法进行加速。实验结果显示 ,此算法有效地克服了相关匹配算法的缺点 。

模折射率透镜的研制

本文报道在Ｋ７玻璃衬底上制作光波导模折射率透镜的实验结果，包括透镜的设计、制备及性能的测量．

Numerical Analysis of Steady Smoldering of Biomass Rods

Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensional(2D)steady model taking into account both char oxidation and pyrolysis was developed on the basis of a calculated propagation velocity according to empirical correlation.The model was validated against the smoldering experiment of biomass rods under natural conditions,and the maximum error was smaller than 31%.Parameter sensitivity analysis found that propagation velocity decreases significantly while oxidation area and pyrolysis zone increase significantly with the increasing diameter of rod fuel.

Operation optimization of prefabricated light modular radiant heating system:Thermal resistance analysis and numerical study

The utilization of prefabricated light modular radiant heating system has demonstrated significant increases in heat transfer efficiency and energy conservation capabilities.Within prefabricated building construction,this new heating method presents an opportunity for the development of comprehensive facilities.The parameters for evaluating the effectiveness of such a system are the upper surface layer’s heat flux and temperature.In this paper,thermal resistance analysis calculation based on a simplified model for this unique radiant heating system analysis is presented with the heat transfer mechanism’s evaluation.The results obtained from thermal resistance analysis calculation and numerical simulation indicate that the thermal resistance analysis method is highly accurate with temperature discrepancies ranging from 0.44℃ to−0.44℃ and a heat flux discrepancy of less than 7.54%,which can meet the requirements of practical engineering applications,suggesting a foundation for the prefabricated radiant heating system.

3D seismic forward modeling from the multiphysical inversion at the Ketzin CO_(2) storage site

From June 2008 to August 2013,approximately 67 kt of CO_(2) was injected into a deep saline formation at the Ketzin pilot CO_(2) storage site.During injection,3D seismic surveys have been performed to monitor the migration of sequestered CO_(2).Seismic monitoring results are limited by the acquisition and signal-to-noise ratio of the acquired data.The multiphysical reservoir simulation provides information regarding the CO_(2) fluid behavior,and the approximated model should be calibrated with the monitoring results.In this work,property models are delivered from the multiphysical model during 3D repeated seismic surveys.The simulated seismic data based on the models are compared with the real data,and the results validate the effectiveness of the multiphysical inversion method.Time-lapse analysis shows the trend of CO_(2) migration during and after injection.

Cross-section distortion and springback characteristics of double-cavity aluminum profile in force controlled stretch-bending

3D elastic-plastic FE model for simulating the force controlled stretch-bending process of double-cavity aluminum profile was established using hybrid explicit−implicit solvent method.Considering the computational accuracy and efficiency,the optimal choices of numerical parameters and algorithms in FE modelling were determined.The formation mechanisms of cross-section distortion and springback were revealed.The effects of pre-stretching,post-stretching,friction,and the addition of internal fillers on forming quality were investigated.The results show that the stress state of profile in stretch-bending is uniaxial with only a circumferential stress.The stress distribution along the length direction of profile is non-uniform and the maximum tensile stress is located at a certain distance away from the center of profile.As aluminum profile is gradually attached to bending die,the distribution characteristic of cross-section distortion along the length direction of profile changes from V-shape to W-shape.After unloading the forming tools,cross-section distortion decreases obviously due to the stress relaxation,with a maximum distortion difference of 13%before and after unloading.As pre-stretching and post-stretching forces increase,cross-section distortion increases gradually,while springback first decreases and then remains unchanged.With increasing friction between bending die and profile,cross-section distortion slightly decreases,while springback increases.Cross-section distortion decreases by 83%with adding PVC fillers into the cavities of profile,while springback increases by 192.2%.

Experimental research on ultimate bearing capacity of N-joints of grouted square steel tube trusses

Cave-in failure is apt to occur in joints of trusses made of square hollow sections. In order to turn the failure mode into a strength failure mode of joint members, the idea is proposed that the chord of the truss is grouted to increase the cave-in beating capacity of a hollow tube chord. An experiment of eight specimens of N- joints made of grout-filled square steel tubes is performed. Based on the experimental study, the geometrical parameters of specimens are analyzed, and the effects of the confinement index ε, the spacing between the two web members g and the ratio of side length of the vertical web member to that of the chord β on the behavior of specimens are investigated through simulation analysis by simulation analyses, the mechanical properties and the failure an ANSYS program. Based on the test results and modes of this kind of joints are analyzed and the formulae to predict the ultimate bearing capacities corresponding to different failure modes are developed. The ultimate bearing capacity of compressive N-joints is calculated in accordance with the cave-in failure mode of a chord member; the ultimate bearing capacity of tension N-joints is calculated in accordance with the punchingshear failure mode; the ultimate bearing capacity of a chord member is calculated in accordance with the shear failure mode in normal sections.

Reconstructing DEM using TLS point cloud data and NURBS surface

Underground coal mining inevitably results in land surface subsidence.Acquiring information on land surface subsidence is important in the detection of surface change.However,conventional data acquisition techniques cannot always retrieve information on whole subsidence area.This study focuses on the reconstruction of a digital elevation model（DEM） with terrestrial laser scanning（TLS） point cloud data.Firstly,the methodology of the DEM with terrestrial 3-dimensional laser scanning is introduced.Then,a DEM modeling approach that involves the application of curved non-uniform rational B-splines（NURBS） surface is put forward.Finally,the performance of the DEM modeling approach with different surface inverse methods is demonstrated.The results indicate that the DEM based on the point cloud data and curved NURBS surface can achieve satisfactory accuracy.In addition,the performance of the hyperbolic paraboloid appears to be better than that of the elliptic paraboloid.The reconstructed DEM is continuous and can easily be integrated into other programs.Such features are of great importance in monitoring dynamic ground surface subsidence.

A Novel Analytical Model for Surface Electrical Field Distribution and Optimization of TFSOI RESURF Devices

A novel analytical model for the thin film silicon on insulator (TFSOI) reduced surface field (RESURF) devices has been proposed.Based on the 2-D Poisson equation solution,the analytical expressions for the surface potential and field distributions are derived.From this analysis,the optimum design condition for the maximum breakdown voltage is obtained.The dependence of the maximum breakdown voltage on the drift region length is examined and the relationship between the critical doping concentration and the front- and back- interface oxide layer thickness is discussed.The numerical simulation performed by the advanced semiconductor simulation tool,DESSIS-ISE,has been shown to support the analytical results.

Extension of analytical model of solid-state phase transformation

Departing from an analytical phase transformation model, a new analytical approach to deduce transformed fraction for non-isothermal phase transformation was developed. In the new approach, the effect of the initial transformation temperature and the accurate ＂temperature integral＂ approximations are incorporated to obtain an extended analytical model. Numerical approach demonstrated that the extended analytical model prediction for transformed fraction and transformation rate is in good agreement with the exact numerical calculation. The new model can describe more precisely the kinetic behavior than the original analytical model, especially for transformation with relatively high initial transformation temperature. The kinetic parameters obtained from the new model are more accurate and reasonable than those from the original analytical model.

Data Analysis and Modeling of Fiber Optic Gyroscope Drift

A data gathering system is designed for the interferometric fiber optic gyroscope (IFOG) of land strapdown inertial system. IFOG is tested and the testing curve is given. The test data of IFOG are analyzed with Allan variance method and each error coefficient is identified. Furthermore, a random drift error model for IFOG is built by the method of time series analysis. The conclusion provides supports for improving IFOG design and compensating for errors of IFOG in practice.

Water quality changing trends of the Miyun Reservoir

In order to simulate changes in the water quality of the Miyun Reservoir dueto continuous descent of surface water level, a 3-D ecological hydrodynamic model was developedthrough coupling the water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) with the environmental fluiddynamics code (EFDC). The model was then calibrated and verified. Four scenarios (S1, S21, S22 andS23) were simulated using the model. Results show that the water quality of the Miyun Reservoirunder conditions of low surface water level is apparently affected by different amounts of inflowand different total phosphorus (TP) loadings. The chlorophyll-a concentration might exceed 10 μg/Lin many areas of the Miyun Reservoir (This limitative value is seen as a critical value ofeutrophication) when large loadings of TP enter due to the amount of inflow increasing. Results ofscenario S23 indicate that control of TP loadings can decrease chlorophyll-a concentrationeffectively, and the water quality of the Miyun Reservoir will improve or retain its status quo.

Prediction and Analysis of O_3 based on the ARIMA Model

The research conducted prediction on changes of atmosphere pollution during July 9, 2014-July 22, 2014 with SPSS based on monitored data of O3 in 13 successive weeks from 6 sites in Baoding City and demonstrated prediction effect of ARIMA model is good by Ljung-Box Q-test and R2, and the model can be used for prediction on future atmosphere pollutant changes.

Analytical Model of Surface Field Distribution and Breakdown Voltage for RESURF LDMOS Transistor

An analytical model of the surface field distribution and breakdown voltage of the reduced surface field lateral double diffusion MOS transistor is proposed.Based on the 2-D Poisson's equation solution,the derived model gives the closed form solutions of the surface potential and electrical field distributions as a function of the structure parameters and drain bias.A criterion for obtaining the optimal trade-off between the breakdown voltage and on-resistance is also presented to serve to quantify the maximum breakdown voltage and optimal relations of all design parameters.Analytical results are shown in good agreement with the numerical analysis obtained by the semiconductor device simulator MEDICI and previous reported experimental data.

Finite element analyses of Wanjiazhai water transmission tunnel excavation and service

This paper is devoted to the nonlinear stress and strain analysis oftunneling and working conditions of Wanjiazhai Division Project No.7 Tunnel in Shanxi province ofChina. The initial geological stress of loess was simulated by grading fill; the theory of unloadingproposed by Duncan and boundary stress of elasticity were used to calculate the excavation of thetunnel; Goodman joint elements were applied to simulate the joints of the liners; both loading andunloading tests have been performed to determine the parameters of Duncan-Chang's model and thecalculated results were compared; Terzaghi' s theory on loosening earth pressure was applied. Manyworking conditions were analyzed and some reasonable results were obtained. Based on the analyses,reparative measures were proposed and completed. The tunnel has functioned well since October, 2001.

Finite element analysis of stress at implant-bone interface of dental implants with different structures

The effect of structure,elastic modulus and thickness of lower modulus layer in porous titanium implants on the stress distribution at the implant-bone interface was investigated.Three-dimensional finite element models of different titanium implants were constructed.The structures of the implants included the whole lower modulus style （No.1）,bio-mimetic style （No.2）,the whole lower modulus style in cancellous bone （No.3） and the whole dense style No.4.The stress distributions at bone-implant interface under static loading were analyzed using Ansys Workbench 10.0 software.The results indicated that the distribution of interface stress is strongly depended on the structure of the implants.The maximum stresses in cancellous bone and root region of implant No.2 are lower than those in the other three implants.A decrease in the modulus of the low modulus layer facilitates the interface stress transferring.Increasing the thickness of the low modulus layer can reduce the stress and induce a more uniform stress distribution at the interface.Among the four implants,biomimetic style implant No.2 is superior in transferring implant-bone interface stress to surrounding bones.

An emergency decision support system for the marine pollution

The paper introduces the research progress in an emergency decision support system for marine pollution （EDSS） in China seas and elaborates on the possible role of the Neutron Activation Analysis （NAA） method therein. To deal with the increasingly grave situation of offshore pollution, the EDSS for China seas has been researching and developing. Based on the prediction and analysis of the ocean three-dimensional current field, this system makes an inference on the possible path of diffusion and influencing area of marine pollutants and possible location of pollution source, and in combination with the environmentally sensitive information related to the technical integration of GIS, it puts forward the decision, making support for minimizing the hazard caused by pollutants. This system has been operationalized and running for many years on the Bohai and Huanghai seas＇ Marine Pollutants Prediction and Early-Warning, and it has achieved successful experience for many times in the emergencies of China＇s coastal pollution accidents. At present, the environmental guarantee system directed against heavy metals and radioactive pollutants is in the experimental stage. As the NAA method is especially applicable to the detection of part of heavy metals and radioactive substances, it is of very important practical value for the new system to realize the monitoring, prediction and early-warning of ocean heavy metals and radioactive pollutants.

Characterizing heterogeneity in vehicular traffic speed using two-step cluster analysis

In order to analyze the heterogeneity in vehicular traffic speed, a new method that integrates cluster analysis and probability distribution function fitting is presented. First, for identifying the optimal number of clusters, the two-step cluster method is applied to analyze actual speed data, which suggests that dividing speed data into two clusters can best reflect the intrinsic patterns of traffic flows. Such information is then taken as guidance in probability distribution function fitting. The normal, skew-normal and skew-t distribution functions are used to fit the probability distribution of each cluster respectively, which suggests that the skew-t distribution has the highest fitting accuracy; the second is skew-normal distribution; the worst is normal distribution. Model analysis results demonstrate that the proposed mixture model has a better fitting and generalization capability than the conventional single model. In addition, the new method is more flexible in terms of data fitting and can provide a more accurate model of speed distribution.