谁是下一个？——NEXT模特管理集团

在这个处处都弥漫着经济萧条的灰暗气息的时尚圈．NEXT模特管理集团却每天都是阳光灿烂。合伙人之一菲丝·凯茨(Faith Kates)每天都要花费大量的时间坐在办公桌后．

论中国模特的职业化发展

在国际模特行业已经步入职业化、制度化和产业化道路的今天,中国模特行业也进入了一个快速发展的时期。但因中国的模特行业是伴随着市场经济的发展而成长起来的朝阳产业,虽经历了多年的发展,但总体来看仍处于初级阶段。本文通过分析中国模特行业目前的发展状况和优劣所在,对中国模特职业化的背景、发展道路以及发展中的阻碍因素等方面进行研究,就如何使中国职业模特市场规范化,使其形成越来越具有职业化、商业化风格的发展等问题提出意见与方案。

A Knowledge Model System for Wheat Production Management

A knowledge model with temporal and spatial characteristics for the quantitative design of a cultural pattern in wheat production, using systems analysis and dynamic modeling techniques, was developed for wheat management, as a decision-making tool in digital farming. The fundamental relationships and algorithms of wheat growth indices and management criteria to cultivars, ecological environments, and production levels were derived from the existing literature and research data to establish a knowledge model system for quantitative wheat management using Visual C^＋＋. The system designed a cultural management plan for general management guidelines and crop regulation indices for timecourse control criteria during the wheat-growing period. The cultural management plan module included submodels to determine target grain yield and quality, cultivar choice, sowing date, population density, sowing rate, fertilization strategy, and water management, whereas the crop regulation indices module included submodels for suitable development stages, dynamic growth indices, source-sink indices, and nutrient indices. Ewluation of the knowledge model by design studies on the basis of data sets of different eco-sites, cultiwrs, and soil types indicated a favorable performance of the model system in recommending growth indices and management criteria under diverse conditions. Practical application of the knowledge model system in comparative field experiments produced yield gains of 2.4% to 16.5%. Thus, the presented knowledge model system overcame some of the difficulties of the traditional wheat management patterns and expert systems, and laid a foundation for facilitating the digitization of wheat management.

Joint analysis of urban shopping destination and travel mode choice accounting for potential spatial correlation between alternatives

In recent years,there have been important developments in the joint analysis of the travel behavior based on discrete choice models as well as in the formulation of increasingly flexible closed-form models belonging to the generalized extreme value class.The objective of this work is to describe the simultaneous choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area by making use of the cross-nested logit(CNL) structure that allows for potential spatial correlation.The analysis uses data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington,D.C.region for shopping trips,considering household,individual,land use,and travel-related characteristics.The estimation results show that the dissimilarity parameter in the CNL model is 0.37 and significant at the 95% level,indicating that the alternatives have high spatial correlation for the short shopping distance.The results of analysis reveal detailed significant influences on travel behavior of joint choice shopping destination and travel mode.Moreover,a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios arising from transportation policies and parking fees in downtown area,was undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the shopping destination and travel mode switching.These findings have important implications for transportation demand management and urban planning.

Application of the Moving Averaging Technique in Surplus Production Models

Surplus production models are the simplest analytical methods effective for fish stock assessment and fisheries management. In this paper, eight surplus production estimators(three estimation procedures) were tested on Schaefer and Fox type simulated data in three simulated fisheries(declining, well-managed, and restoring fisheries) at two white noise levels. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to verify the utility of moving averaging(MA), which was an important technique for reducing the effect of noise in data in these models. The relative estimation error(REE) of maximum sustainable yield(MSY) was used as an indicator for the analysis, and one-way ANOVA was applied to test the significance of the REE calculated at four levels of MA. Simulation results suggested that increasing the value of MA could significantly improve the performance of the surplus production model(low REE) in all cases when the white noise level was low(coefficient of variation(CV) = 0.02). However, when the white noise level increased(CV= 0.25), adding the value of MA could still significantly enhance the performance of most models. Our results indicated that the best model performance occurred frequently when MA was equal to 3; however, some exceptions were observed when MA was higher.

The FAHP-based Risk Assessment in the Conclusion of Equipment Procurement Contract

The risk assessment of contract conclusion is the primary and key part of equipment purchase contract risk management. In this paper, based on the fuzzy characteristics of contract risks, and overcoming the traditional disadvantages of analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） of contract conclusion is proposed for meeting the actual need of equipment procurement contract risk assessment, and implementing the risk factors qualitative and quantitative assessments of different working nodes in contract conclusion. Thus, a scientific and reliable important basis is provided for the risk management of equipment procurement contract.

Construction of Network Legal Supervision Mode With Chinese Characteristics

Localizing network legal supervision based on national conditions, legal traditions and the needs of economic and political development is the basis to manage and administrate the network by law. Adjusted to media convergence and the needs of network cultural industry development, China has made the lawmaking of media transform from practical service oriented management to functional oriented management of media. This strategy aims to prevent network medium risk effectively according to network communication regularity.

Spatial heterogeneity and population risk analysis of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera, in ChinaKey words spatial characteristics, spatial pattern, semivariance, population management, geostatistics, Helicoverpa armigera, population regulation

In this study, semivariance was used to quantitatively measure the spatial heterogeneity for the egg population of cotton bollworm during a growing season. The typical characteristic parameters of theoretical semivariance models against lag distances were applied to measure components of spatial heterogeneity： trend, range, spatial dependence, and the strength of spatial dependence. Then, kriging interpolation was used to evaluate the population risk of cotton bollworm exceeding economic thresholds. From early June through early September, the population densities were sampled 10 times in the study field. Results showed that the spatial patterns were related to population density. For its low-density population, the spatially heterogeneous trends were usually of spherical shapes; but for highdensity ones, the trends shifted to Gaussian shapes. The spatial dependence appeared at varied distances ranging from 52 meters to 936 meters, and the spatial dependence was in the range of 0.39-288.60, which changed with population densities. While having high heterogeneity, the strength of spatial dependence became much stronger. Results of population risk analysis showed that there was a high risk during its early stages, especially in mid-June. In August, population risk was so low that it did not need to be controlled.