The annual frequency of red tides from 1977 to 2012 and the monthly frequency of red tides from 2001 to 2012 in China seas were used to establish the time series of red tide annual frequency and monthly frequency, res...The annual frequency of red tides from 1977 to 2012 and the monthly frequency of red tides from 2001 to 2012 in China seas were used to establish the time series of red tide annual frequency and monthly frequency, respectively. The annual frequency fit well with time segments revealed by piecewise linear regression analysis. The seasonal maximum of monthly frequency was in May （-18.22）, and the stochastic volatility tended to increase gradually with time series, with peak values occurring from May to July. Holt exponential smoothing and Holt-winter exponential smoothing were used to predict red tide annual and monthly frequencies, which revealed that the annual frequency of red tides would rise slowly by one time from 2013 to 2020, and that red tides would mainly occur from May to July in 2013-2016 with a peak value of about 25 times in May.展开更多
The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an N...The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an NECP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation data from 74 stations in the MLYRV. The results show a significant negative correlation between the May NAO index and the EPF over the MLYRV in the subsequent summer. In positive EPF index years, the East Asian westerly jet shifts farther southward, and two blocking high positive anomalies appear over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Ural Mountains. These anomalies are favorable to the cold air from the mid-high latitudes invading the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The moisture convergence and the ascending motion dominate the MLYRV. The above patterns are reversed in negative EPF index years. A wave train pattern that originates from the North Atlantic extends eastward to the Mediterranean and then moves to the Tibetan Plateau and from there to the YRV, which is an important link in the May NAO and the summer extreme precipitation in the MLYRV. The wave train may be aroused by the tripole pattern of the SST, which can explain why the May NAO affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV.展开更多
基金financially supported by the Tianjin Marine Science and Technology Project (KJXH2011-05)local colleges and universities in Shanghai liberal arts academic programme (B5201120003)
文摘The annual frequency of red tides from 1977 to 2012 and the monthly frequency of red tides from 2001 to 2012 in China seas were used to establish the time series of red tide annual frequency and monthly frequency, respectively. The annual frequency fit well with time segments revealed by piecewise linear regression analysis. The seasonal maximum of monthly frequency was in May （-18.22）, and the stochastic volatility tended to increase gradually with time series, with peak values occurring from May to July. Holt exponential smoothing and Holt-winter exponential smoothing were used to predict red tide annual and monthly frequencies, which revealed that the annual frequency of red tides would rise slowly by one time from 2013 to 2020, and that red tides would mainly occur from May to July in 2013-2016 with a peak value of about 25 times in May.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2009CB421406)the special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(Meteorology)(Grant No.GYHY200906018)+1 种基金the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41175071)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2-YW-QN202)
文摘The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an NECP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation data from 74 stations in the MLYRV. The results show a significant negative correlation between the May NAO index and the EPF over the MLYRV in the subsequent summer. In positive EPF index years, the East Asian westerly jet shifts farther southward, and two blocking high positive anomalies appear over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Ural Mountains. These anomalies are favorable to the cold air from the mid-high latitudes invading the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The moisture convergence and the ascending motion dominate the MLYRV. The above patterns are reversed in negative EPF index years. A wave train pattern that originates from the North Atlantic extends eastward to the Mediterranean and then moves to the Tibetan Plateau and from there to the YRV, which is an important link in the May NAO and the summer extreme precipitation in the MLYRV. The wave train may be aroused by the tripole pattern of the SST, which can explain why the May NAO affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV.
