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动态清零防控策略中全员跟踪检测隔离最小轮次估算模型及评估
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作者 罗庆 龙江 +2 位作者 张香红 朱怀平 王开发 《中国预防医学杂志》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第12期1286-1294,共9页
目的探讨动态清零防控策略中新型冠状病毒全员核酸检测追踪隔离(citywide test-trace-isolation,CTTI)的最小轮次,为医疗资源的优化配置提供参考依据。方法利用微元法建模思想和二项分布性质,构建了估算CTTI最小轮次的单目标优化模型,... 目的探讨动态清零防控策略中新型冠状病毒全员核酸检测追踪隔离(citywide test-trace-isolation,CTTI)的最小轮次,为医疗资源的优化配置提供参考依据。方法利用微元法建模思想和二项分布性质,构建了估算CTTI最小轮次的单目标优化模型,并进行实证评估和仿真模拟分析。结果最小轮次与核酸检测灵敏度和CTTI期间的隔离控制强度呈负相关,得到了能够达成动态清零目标的临界核酸检测灵敏度和CTTI期间隔离控制临界强度公式。本研究的模型模拟结果与2021年12月西安市Delta变异株疫情、2022年3月重庆市Omicron变异株疫情以及2022年1月深圳市“0131”Omicron变异株疫情演变都具有较好的一致性。仿真结果发现,CTTI期间的隔离控制强度对CTTI最小轮次的估计值影响最大,常态化防疫中发现首例本土感染者的时间与最终检出的感染者总数呈指数相关。结论为了降低疫情防控成本,优化卫生资源需求量,建议把CTTI策略调整为重点区域核酸检测追踪隔离(key areas test-trace-isolation,KTTI)策略。为了尽快达成动态清零目标,除了提高筛查精度和鼓励疫苗接种之外,CTTI或KTTI期间尤其需严格遵守防疫措施,最大限度减少病毒传播。 展开更多
关键词 动态清零 全员核酸检测追踪隔离 基本再生数 最小轮次估算
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天津市区夏季碳气溶胶特征及改进的二次有机碳估算方法 被引量:7
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作者 张家营 刘保双 +4 位作者 毕晓辉 元洁 肖致美 张裕芬 冯银厂 《环境科学研究》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2018年第9期1504-1518,共15页
为更加准确地估算环境受体PM_(2.5)中SOC(二次有机碳)的质量浓度,于2015年6—8月利用在线监测仪器同步采集小时分辨率的PM_(2.5)及OC(有机碳)和EC(元素碳)样品数据,分析碳气溶胶的变化特征,并尝试运用改进的EC示踪法估算ρ(SOC).结果表... 为更加准确地估算环境受体PM_(2.5)中SOC(二次有机碳)的质量浓度,于2015年6—8月利用在线监测仪器同步采集小时分辨率的PM_(2.5)及OC(有机碳)和EC(元素碳)样品数据,分析碳气溶胶的变化特征,并尝试运用改进的EC示踪法估算ρ(SOC).结果表明:天津市区夏季ρ(PM_(2.5))为(70.9±46.0)μg/m3,ρ(OC)和ρ(EC)分别为(7.6±3.1)(2.2±1.5)μg/m3,占ρ(PM_(2.5))的11.8%±4.6%和3.1%±1.4%,OC/EC(质量浓度之比,下同)的平均值为4.0±2.0.ρ(OC)与ρ(EC)之间的Pearson相关系数(R)仅为0.66,说明OC和EC的来源较为复杂,SOC的产生可能是重要影响因素.ρ(NO2)与OC/EC呈显著负相关(R=-0.47,P<0.01),并且OC/EC(4.0)相对较低,说明天津市区机动车可能对碳气溶胶具有重要影响.ρ(SO2)与ρ(OC)、ρ(EC)的相关性较低(R均为0.33,P均小于0.01),说明天津市区碳气溶胶可能受燃煤源的影响较低.改进的EC示踪法主要是利用O3和CO、EC作为光化学反应和一次源排放的指标,并结合ρ(OC)、ρ(EC)和OC/EC的变化特征,逐步筛选一次排放源主导的时间段的ρ(OC)和ρ(EC)数据,然后利用最小二乘法拟合获得ρ(OC)和ρ(EC)的线性方程,最后进行ρ(SOC)和ρ(POC)(POC为一次有机碳)的估算.天津市区夏季ρ(SOC)的平均值为(2.5±2.0)μg/m3,分别占ρ(OC)和ρ(PM_(2.5))的28.8%±15.0%和3.7%±3.6%;ρ(POC)的平均值为(5.2±1.7)μg/m3,分别占ρ(OC)和ρ(PM_(2.5))的71.2%±15.0%和8.1%±5.2%,说明天津市区夏季有机碳的主要来源是一次排放源.研究显示,相比于EC示踪法,改进的EC示踪法估算的ρ(SOC)明显降低,ρ(POC)明显升高.AT(大气温度)对ρ(SOC)的影响较为显著,而WS(风速)对ρ(POC)的影响较为显著. 展开更多
关键词 PM2.5 碳气溶胶 有机碳(SOC)估算方法 天津市区
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海上某复杂断块油藏最大可能溢油量估算 被引量:1
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作者 王世宗 战昭君 《重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2013年第1期120-123,共4页
2010年海上某复杂断块油藏由于过度开发和违规钻井造成严重溢油污染事故,该区块D、E平台均为海底溢油,没有监测到具体的溢油开始时间和初始溢油强度,溢油初期的统计数据分析其精度较低,这为准确测算海底溢油量带来巨大的困难。针对此溢... 2010年海上某复杂断块油藏由于过度开发和违规钻井造成严重溢油污染事故,该区块D、E平台均为海底溢油,没有监测到具体的溢油开始时间和初始溢油强度,溢油初期的统计数据分析其精度较低,这为准确测算海底溢油量带来巨大的困难。针对此溢油特点,基于该事故现有数据资料,通过油藏工程方法,对最大可能油藏的溢出原油量进行初步估算,通过计算认为该断块溢油规模应当大于1 000 m3,小于7 000 m3。 展开更多
关键词 断块油藏 海底溢油 油藏工程 溢油量 次估算
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Secondary settlement estimation in surcharge preload subject to time effect of secondary consolidation coefficient 被引量:2
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作者 胡亚元 杨平 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第2期341-352,共12页
In order to eliminate the settlement underestimation in surcharge preload engineering, a study based on Bjerrum's creep diagram and the tangent slope definition of secondary consolidation coefficient was carried o... In order to eliminate the settlement underestimation in surcharge preload engineering, a study based on Bjerrum's creep diagram and the tangent slope definition of secondary consolidation coefficient was carried out to analyze the time effect of secondary consolidation coefficient of over consolidated soil, and a time–growth model for it was formulated. As Bjerrum's creep diagram is an idealized model, oedometer tests were performed to improve the above time–growth model of secondary consolidation coefficient for the purpose of achieving a better agreement with the actual ground situations. It is found that secondary consolidation coefficient of over consolidated soil not only decreases with the ratio of historical maximum to current effective stress of soil(OCR), but also increases with the development time of secondary consolidation. No matter how large OCR is, the long-term time effect of secondary consolidation coefficient of over consolidated soil is all significant. Based on the above results, a model for settlement estimation was formulated and a case study to estimate it indicates that the settlement estimated by our method is 2–5 times larger than that estimated by the previous method. Moreover, the larger the OCR is as well as the longer the service life is, the larger the difference between our method and the previous method is. Thus, the post-construction secondary settlement in surcharge preload engineering will be underestimated when neglecting the time effect of secondary consolidation coefficient in over consolidated state. 展开更多
关键词 post-construction secondary settlement time effect tangent slope secondary consolidation coefficient
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Multiple weighted estimates for commutators of multilinear fractional integral operators 被引量:2
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作者 CHEN SongQing WU HuoXiong 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE 2013年第9期1879-1894,共16页
Multilinear commutators and iterated commutators of multilinear fractional integral operators with BMO functions are studied. Both strong type and weak type endpoint weighted estimates involving the multiple weights f... Multilinear commutators and iterated commutators of multilinear fractional integral operators with BMO functions are studied. Both strong type and weak type endpoint weighted estimates involving the multiple weights for such operators are established and the weak type endpoint results are sharp in some senses. In particular, we extend the results given by Cruz-Uribe and Fiorenza in 2003 and 2007 to the multilinear setting. Moreover, we modify the weak type of endpoint weighted estimates and improve the strong type of weighted norm inequalities on the multilinear commutators given by Chen and Xue in 2010 and 2011. 展开更多
关键词 multilinear fractional integrals COMMUTATORS maximal operators multiple weights A P q weighted norm inequalities
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A method to estimate crop effects at higher frequencies by modeling and microwave radiometric data 被引量:2
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作者 ZHANG ZhongJun ZHANG LiXin +1 位作者 SUN GuoQing LIU QinHuo 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第7期1159-1165,共7页
To use the 0th-order τ-ω model to retrieve soil moisture from radiometric data at frequencies higher than the C band, the characteristics of the effective single scattering albedo ω and the opacity rof vegetation m... To use the 0th-order τ-ω model to retrieve soil moisture from radiometric data at frequencies higher than the C band, the characteristics of the effective single scattering albedo ω and the opacity rof vegetation must be studied. In this paper, the co and r values of corn for the C, X, and Ku bands were retrieved by matching the simulations of a high-order matrix-doubling model to the τ-ω model. First, the brightness temperature of the matrix-doubling was validated by a truck-mounted radiometer in a field experiment, where the vegetation emission contributions were validated with aluminum foil to mask the soil emission. Then an emissivity database of corn fields for different growing seasons was established for a variety of soil conditions. With the transmissivity of corn determined from the database, the effective single scattering albedos of corn for different heights at the C, X, and Ku bands and at a 55° viewing angle were derived. To verify the accuracy of the derived co and τ values, we used SMEX02/PSR aircraft data and the Qp model to retrieve the soil moisture; the RMSE between the retrieval and the measurements was 4.76% at the C band and 5.36% at the X band. 展开更多
关键词 microwave emission single scattering albedo TRANSMISSIVITY VEGETATION matrix-doubling
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Modulation space estimates for the fractional integral operators 被引量:3
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作者 ZHONG Yong CHEN JieCheng 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE 2011年第7期1479-1489,共11页
We obtain the boundedness for the fractional integral operators from the modulation Hardy space μp,q to the modulation Hardy space μr,q for all 0 < p < ∞. The result is an extension of the known result for th... We obtain the boundedness for the fractional integral operators from the modulation Hardy space μp,q to the modulation Hardy space μr,q for all 0 < p < ∞. The result is an extension of the known result for the case 1 < p < ∞ and it contains a larger range of r than those in the classical result of the Lp → Lr boundedness in the Lebesgue spaces. We also obtain some estimates on the modulation spaces for the bilinear fractional operators. 展开更多
关键词 modulation spaces modulation Hardy spaces fractional integral operator bilinear fractional integral operator
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