Recently, the desiccation effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) is found to be positively correlated with violent conflict in pre-industrial Europe, with agricultural shrinkage and its subsequent economic shoc...Recently, the desiccation effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) is found to be positively correlated with violent conflict in pre-industrial Europe, with agricultural shrinkage and its subsequent economic shocks to be their causal link. However, it remains unexplored whether the correlation persists if the study period is extended backward in time, a different definition of violent conflict is applied, or the relationship is examined at lower geographic levels. In this study, we based on 835 internal disturbance incidents in Europe during 1049–1800 to conduct long-temporal and multi-scalar examination on the NAO-conflict nexus. ′Time-series′ and ′panel data′ disaggregation approaches, together with Granger Causality, Multiple Regression, and Survival Analyses were applied to verify the nexus quantitatively. Results show that the positive NAO-conflict correlation was significant at the continent and physiographic zone levels. During the positive NAO phases, the annual probability of internal disturbance outbreak increased by 70.0% in the southern Europe and the Mediterranean, a zone most affected by the NAO-induced desiccation effect. Yet, the NAO-conflict correlation was rather inconsistent when it was downscaled to the sub-regional level. Moreover, the NAO-conflict correlation was inflated under the time-series approach, while the panel data approach demonstrated the region-specific nature of the NAO forcing more clearly. The associated implications in examining climate-conflict nexus are discussed. Our findings may be crucial in examining violent conflict in the northwestern Africa, a highly agricultural region affected by the NAO.展开更多
The impact on temperature and precipitation anomalies over the European continent of the different action centers of blocking events in the Euro-Atlantic sector was investigated. It was found that the position of the ...The impact on temperature and precipitation anomalies over the European continent of the different action centers of blocking events in the Euro-Atlantic sector was investigated. It was found that the position of the blocking action center in the Euro-Atlantic region seems to dominate European climates. When the center of the blocking action is in the Greenland region, there is a strong negative temperature anomaly over Central and Northern Europe, as well as a strong positive precipitation anomaly over southern Europe. However, there tends to be a strong negative temperature anomaly in the west(east) part of Europe when the center of the blocking action is shifted to the Eastern Atlantic and west Europe(east Europe). In particular, when the blocking action center is closer to the European continent, the fall in temperature becomes more evident over Central and south Europe than over other regions. Moreover, it was found that when the region where the blocking action center exists changes from the Eastern Atlantic and west Europe region to the east Europe region, the existing region of dominant positive precipitation anomalies varies from southwest Europe to southeast Europe and the Middle East.展开更多
The conditions for regional circulation of the atmosphere in the periods of severe droughts in Ukraine are described by two circulation indexes. In analogy with experimental index EBI （European Blocking Index） for t...The conditions for regional circulation of the atmosphere in the periods of severe droughts in Ukraine are described by two circulation indexes. In analogy with experimental index EBI （European Blocking Index） for the Eastern Atlantic and Western Europe is proposed a new index ECBI （European Continental Blocking Index）, which describes the blocking of zonal flow over the European continent. The obtained time series of the ECBI for the spring-summer seasons with the severe droughts in Ukraine were analyzed. Katz circulation index was used for the estimating of intensity of the meridional atmospheric processes during the same droughts. It is shown that there registered a high frequency of blocking processes which was accompanied by positive phases of ECBI and an increase in the meridional component of an atmospheric flow over the region of Europe. In years with droughts in average 60% consecutive pentads were with a positive value of ECBI, mostly in April to May. The absolute maximum duration of blocking was the 10 consecutive pentads and observed in 1963. The high positive values of the ECBI and Katz index were connected with strong anomalies in seasonal and monthly fields of wind over territory of Eastern Europe. A close relationship between the ECBI and the Katz index was obtained, which allowed to determine the critical value of the Katz index for the beginning of blocking situation,展开更多
The issue of the future of Europe is becoming increasingly important what with the depth of the economic crisis that started in 2008. In addition to a continuous growth in the number of the unemployed, the crisis part...The issue of the future of Europe is becoming increasingly important what with the depth of the economic crisis that started in 2008. In addition to a continuous growth in the number of the unemployed, the crisis particularly emphasizes the chronic level of energy dependence. The energy saving measures ~energy efficiency）, diversification of sources （stability of supply）, and the creation of substitutes in renewable energy （energy transition）, intertwine with administrative measures and form the response of European countries to the growing energy dependence. At the same time, although facing the threatening warming （or cooling） of the Earth, Europe, as a big advocate of reducing CO2 remains passively dependent on NATO （North Atlantic Treaty Organization） policy in the field of defense in the context of energy dependence. However, for the first time after many decades, Europe and America do not have the same energy, and consequently geo-strategic objective： The US has become energy independent while Europe is chronically energy dependent.展开更多
The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based up...The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based upon the daily NAO index, we have calculated the frequency of in-situ NAO events in winter during 1950-2011 by defining the Eastern-type NAO(ENAO) and Western-type NAO(WNAO) events according to its position at the east(west) of 10°W. Then, the composites of the blocking frequency, temperature and precipitation anomalies for different types of NAO events are performed. Results show that the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking events is distributed along the northwest-southeast(southwest-northeast) direction for the negative(positive) phase. Two blocking action centers in Greenland and European continent are observed during the negative phase while one blocking action center over south Europe is seen for the positive phase. The action center of blocking events tends to shift eastward as the NAO is shifted toward the European continent. Moreover, the eastern-type negative phase(ENAO) events are followed by a sharp decline of surface air temperature over Europe(especially in central, east, and south Europe), which have a wider and stronger impact on the weather over European continent than the western-type negative phase(WNAO) events do. A double- branched structure of positive precipitation anomalies is seen for the negative phase event, besides strong positive precipitation anomalies over south Europe for ENAO event. The eastern-type and western-type positive phase(ENAO+ and WNAO+) can lead to warming over Europe. A single-branched positive precipitation anomaly dominant in central and north Europe is seen for positive phase events.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund(No.201302172003,201502172003)Research Grants Council of Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China(No.HKU758712H,HKU745113H,HKU17610715)
文摘Recently, the desiccation effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) is found to be positively correlated with violent conflict in pre-industrial Europe, with agricultural shrinkage and its subsequent economic shocks to be their causal link. However, it remains unexplored whether the correlation persists if the study period is extended backward in time, a different definition of violent conflict is applied, or the relationship is examined at lower geographic levels. In this study, we based on 835 internal disturbance incidents in Europe during 1049–1800 to conduct long-temporal and multi-scalar examination on the NAO-conflict nexus. ′Time-series′ and ′panel data′ disaggregation approaches, together with Granger Causality, Multiple Regression, and Survival Analyses were applied to verify the nexus quantitatively. Results show that the positive NAO-conflict correlation was significant at the continent and physiographic zone levels. During the positive NAO phases, the annual probability of internal disturbance outbreak increased by 70.0% in the southern Europe and the Mediterranean, a zone most affected by the NAO-induced desiccation effect. Yet, the NAO-conflict correlation was rather inconsistent when it was downscaled to the sub-regional level. Moreover, the NAO-conflict correlation was inflated under the time-series approach, while the panel data approach demonstrated the region-specific nature of the NAO forcing more clearly. The associated implications in examining climate-conflict nexus are discussed. Our findings may be crucial in examining violent conflict in the northwestern Africa, a highly agricultural region affected by the NAO.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375067)
文摘The impact on temperature and precipitation anomalies over the European continent of the different action centers of blocking events in the Euro-Atlantic sector was investigated. It was found that the position of the blocking action center in the Euro-Atlantic region seems to dominate European climates. When the center of the blocking action is in the Greenland region, there is a strong negative temperature anomaly over Central and Northern Europe, as well as a strong positive precipitation anomaly over southern Europe. However, there tends to be a strong negative temperature anomaly in the west(east) part of Europe when the center of the blocking action is shifted to the Eastern Atlantic and west Europe(east Europe). In particular, when the blocking action center is closer to the European continent, the fall in temperature becomes more evident over Central and south Europe than over other regions. Moreover, it was found that when the region where the blocking action center exists changes from the Eastern Atlantic and west Europe region to the east Europe region, the existing region of dominant positive precipitation anomalies varies from southwest Europe to southeast Europe and the Middle East.
文摘The conditions for regional circulation of the atmosphere in the periods of severe droughts in Ukraine are described by two circulation indexes. In analogy with experimental index EBI （European Blocking Index） for the Eastern Atlantic and Western Europe is proposed a new index ECBI （European Continental Blocking Index）, which describes the blocking of zonal flow over the European continent. The obtained time series of the ECBI for the spring-summer seasons with the severe droughts in Ukraine were analyzed. Katz circulation index was used for the estimating of intensity of the meridional atmospheric processes during the same droughts. It is shown that there registered a high frequency of blocking processes which was accompanied by positive phases of ECBI and an increase in the meridional component of an atmospheric flow over the region of Europe. In years with droughts in average 60% consecutive pentads were with a positive value of ECBI, mostly in April to May. The absolute maximum duration of blocking was the 10 consecutive pentads and observed in 1963. The high positive values of the ECBI and Katz index were connected with strong anomalies in seasonal and monthly fields of wind over territory of Eastern Europe. A close relationship between the ECBI and the Katz index was obtained, which allowed to determine the critical value of the Katz index for the beginning of blocking situation,
文摘The issue of the future of Europe is becoming increasingly important what with the depth of the economic crisis that started in 2008. In addition to a continuous growth in the number of the unemployed, the crisis particularly emphasizes the chronic level of energy dependence. The energy saving measures ~energy efficiency）, diversification of sources （stability of supply）, and the creation of substitutes in renewable energy （energy transition）, intertwine with administrative measures and form the response of European countries to the growing energy dependence. At the same time, although facing the threatening warming （or cooling） of the Earth, Europe, as a big advocate of reducing CO2 remains passively dependent on NATO （North Atlantic Treaty Organization） policy in the field of defense in the context of energy dependence. However, for the first time after many decades, Europe and America do not have the same energy, and consequently geo-strategic objective： The US has become energy independent while Europe is chronically energy dependent.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375067)
文摘The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based upon the daily NAO index, we have calculated the frequency of in-situ NAO events in winter during 1950-2011 by defining the Eastern-type NAO(ENAO) and Western-type NAO(WNAO) events according to its position at the east(west) of 10°W. Then, the composites of the blocking frequency, temperature and precipitation anomalies for different types of NAO events are performed. Results show that the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking events is distributed along the northwest-southeast(southwest-northeast) direction for the negative(positive) phase. Two blocking action centers in Greenland and European continent are observed during the negative phase while one blocking action center over south Europe is seen for the positive phase. The action center of blocking events tends to shift eastward as the NAO is shifted toward the European continent. Moreover, the eastern-type negative phase(ENAO) events are followed by a sharp decline of surface air temperature over Europe(especially in central, east, and south Europe), which have a wider and stronger impact on the weather over European continent than the western-type negative phase(WNAO) events do. A double- branched structure of positive precipitation anomalies is seen for the negative phase event, besides strong positive precipitation anomalies over south Europe for ENAO event. The eastern-type and western-type positive phase(ENAO+ and WNAO+) can lead to warming over Europe. A single-branched positive precipitation anomaly dominant in central and north Europe is seen for positive phase events.
