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运用带跳过程的死亡力度对死亡率的估计 被引量:1
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作者 孙荣 《系统工程》 北大核心 2021年第1期43-49,共7页
死亡率是分析各类寿险精算函数的基础。在传统的精算实务中实质上是假定了死亡率是静态不变的,然而,根据世界各国的历史人口统计数据,死亡率却是随时间而变动的,具有随机性和非连续性。人口老龄化所带来的长寿风险对社会养老保险精算带... 死亡率是分析各类寿险精算函数的基础。在传统的精算实务中实质上是假定了死亡率是静态不变的,然而,根据世界各国的历史人口统计数据,死亡率却是随时间而变动的,具有随机性和非连续性。人口老龄化所带来的长寿风险对社会养老保险精算带来巨大的挑战,准确的预测死亡率,提高精算结果的科学性是防范长寿风险的主要技术手段。本文对带跳随机死亡力度模型的参数提出估计方法,进而对死亡率进行预测。通过实证研究,总体来看,利用这种方法对死亡率的预测结果具有较好的预测精度。 展开更多
关键词 死亡力度 跳过程 死亡 预测
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分数年龄假设与生存函数的插值 被引量:10
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作者 吴贤毅 王静龙 《华东师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2001年第4期34-40,共7页
在生存函数的估计与相关的计算中 ,特别是在人寿保险的计算中 ,人们从寿命表上只能知道生存函数在某些年龄点 (最常见的是整数年龄 )上的值 ,对于非整数年龄 (分数年龄 )点的生存函数 ,通用的做法是在某些假设之下由整数年龄的生存函数... 在生存函数的估计与相关的计算中 ,特别是在人寿保险的计算中 ,人们从寿命表上只能知道生存函数在某些年龄点 (最常见的是整数年龄 )上的值 ,对于非整数年龄 (分数年龄 )点的生存函数 ,通用的做法是在某些假设之下由整数年龄的生存函数而得到 ,本文首先讨论了经典的三种分数年龄假设的插值形式及其对生存函数及期望寿命计算的影响 。 展开更多
关键词 生存函数 死亡力度函数 整数年龄 分数年龄 最小二乘估计 期望寿命 人寿保险 插值
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Differences in the predictive value of red cell distribution width for the mortality of patients with heart failure due to various heart diseases 被引量:10
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作者 Yang ZHANG Yan WANG +4 位作者 Jin-Suo KANG Jin-Xing YU Shi-Jie YIN Xiang-Feng CONG Xi CHEN 《Journal of Geriatric Cardiology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第6期647-654,共8页
Background Increased red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). The objective of this study was to compare the differences in the predictive va... Background Increased red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). The objective of this study was to compare the differences in the predictive value of RDW in patients with HF due to different causes. Methods We retrospectively investigated 1,021 HF patients from October 2009 to December 2011 at Fuwai Hospital (Beijing, China). HF in these patients was caused by three diseases; coronary heart disease (CHD), dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and valvular heart disease (VHD). Patients were followed-up for 21 ~ 9 months. Results The RDW, mortality and survival duration were significantly different among the three groups. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the cumulative survival decreased significantly with increased RDW in patients with HF caused by CHD and DCM, but not in those with HF patients caused by VHD. In a multivariable model, RDW was identified as an independent predictor for the mortality of HF patients with CHD (P 〈 0.001, HR 1.315, 95% CI 1.122-1.543). The group with higher N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and higher RDW than median had the lowest cumulative survival in patients with HF due to CHD, but not in patients with HF due to DCM. Conclusions RDW is a prognostic indicator for patients with HF caused by CHD and DCM; thus, RDW adds important information to NT-proBNP in CHD caused HF patients. 展开更多
关键词 Coronary heart disease Dilated cardiomyopathy Heart failure Red blood cell distribution width Valvular heart disease
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Kinetics of Infection-Driven Growth Model with Birth and Death
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作者 YANG Shun-You ZHU Sheng-Qing KE Jian-Hong LIN Zhen-Quan 《Communications in Theoretical Physics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第9期787-792,共6页
We propose a two-species infection model, in which an infected aggregate can gain one monomer from a healthy one due to infection when they meet together. Moreover, both the healthy and infected aggregates may lose on... We propose a two-species infection model, in which an infected aggregate can gain one monomer from a healthy one due to infection when they meet together. Moreover, both the healthy and infected aggregates may lose one monomer because of self-death, but a healthy aggregate can spontaneously yield a new monomer. Consider a simple system in which the birth/death rates are directly proportional to the aggregate size, namely, the birth and death rates of the healthy aggregate of size k are J1 k and J2k while the self-death rate of the infected aggregate of size k is J3k. We then investigate the kinetics of such a system by means of rate equation approach. For the J1 〉 J2 case, the aggregate size distribution of either species approaches the generalized scaling form and the typical size of either species increases wavily at large times. For the J1 = J2 case, the size distribution of healthy aggregates approaches the generalized scaling form while that of infected aggregates satisfies the modified scaling form. For the J1 〈 J2 case, the size distribution of healthy aggregates satisfies the modified scaling form, but that of infected aggregates does not scale. 展开更多
关键词 kinetic behavior INFECTION birth/death scaling law
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