In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which ...In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.展开更多
The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditio...The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.展开更多
In 2010, the debate over valuation of the Renminbi is again heating up and the Chinese currency has returned to appreciating against the dollar But is the Renminbi undervalued？ Drawing on the Balassa-Samuelson （B-S...In 2010, the debate over valuation of the Renminbi is again heating up and the Chinese currency has returned to appreciating against the dollar But is the Renminbi undervalued？ Drawing on the Balassa-Samuelson （B-S） effect on purchasing power parity, we conduct theoretical and empirical analyses of this issue. Theoretical analysis proves that a country＇s real exchange rate will appreciate with rising income, but the currencies of low-income countries tend to be undervalued. In order to avoid biased conclusions resulting from a single dataset or sampling method, we draw on three major publicly-available datasets to examine the B-S effect across 144 economies. Our results indicate that the degree of Renminbi misvaluation is highly dependent on the data source. Synthesizing analyses of diverse datasets, we estimate that the Renminbi was only undervalued by less than 8per cent in 2009. We conclude that China＇s external imbalance most probably results from deep-seated structural imbalances rather than Renminbi undervaluation.展开更多
Objective:Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation(PRFA) is known to be as effective as hepatectomy for small hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) in the long-term.We wished to ascertain how it is for recurrent small HCC.Methods...Objective:Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation(PRFA) is known to be as effective as hepatectomy for small hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) in the long-term.We wished to ascertain how it is for recurrent small HCC.Methods:From January 2009 to November 2011,a series of sixty-one patients were included in the study according to the criteria:each patient had one recurrent HCC,less than 5 cm in diameter.Twenty-six of the 61 patients were treated with PRFA and the other 35 were treated with repeat hepatectomy.Results:The interval from first surgery to recurrent for repeat hepatectomy and PRFA groups were(1,239.60±1,017.00) d and(903.42±975.11) d respectively(P=0.066).The tumor-free time after repeat hepatectomy and PRFA were(310.23±159.50) d and(278.27±123.29) d respectively(P=0.584).Size of tumor in repeat hepatectomy and PRFA were(7.34±3.16) cm^2 and(5.59±3.40) cm^2(P=0.215),the total expenditure for each patient of the two groups were(26,150.66±7,923.60) yuan and(21,135.00±1,156.76) yuan(RMB),and the time of hospitalization for each of the two groups were(15.29±4.28) d and(7.46±2.20) d(P<0.001).Conclusion:PRFA is proved to be as effective as repeat hepatectomy in the treatment of recurrent small HCC,and superior to repeat hepatectomy as it is less invasive.展开更多
China＇s current inflation differs from that of the 1980s. The Current inflation is being caused by factors from both the supply and demand sides, and should therefore be addressed from both sides as well With a new p...China＇s current inflation differs from that of the 1980s. The Current inflation is being caused by factors from both the supply and demand sides, and should therefore be addressed from both sides as well With a new policy analysis framework, we suggest that China now needs to adopt a policy combination of ＂supply expansion and demand tightening.＂ Demand tightening should mainly rely on the policy of quantitative monetary tightening, which specifically includes further tightening of capital controls and encouragement of outbound investment. Supply expansion should mainly rely on policies of tax cuts, Renminbi appreciation, reform, improvement of administration, and technological progress.展开更多
文摘In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.
基金Projects(71874210,71633006,71874207,71974208)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2020CX049)supported by Innovation-Driven Foundation of Central South University,China+1 种基金Project(2018dcyj031)supported by Postgraduate Survey Research Foundation of Central South University,ChinaProject(17K103)supported by the Innovation Platform Open Fund Project of Hunan Education Department,China。
文摘The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.
文摘In 2010, the debate over valuation of the Renminbi is again heating up and the Chinese currency has returned to appreciating against the dollar But is the Renminbi undervalued？ Drawing on the Balassa-Samuelson （B-S） effect on purchasing power parity, we conduct theoretical and empirical analyses of this issue. Theoretical analysis proves that a country＇s real exchange rate will appreciate with rising income, but the currencies of low-income countries tend to be undervalued. In order to avoid biased conclusions resulting from a single dataset or sampling method, we draw on three major publicly-available datasets to examine the B-S effect across 144 economies. Our results indicate that the degree of Renminbi misvaluation is highly dependent on the data source. Synthesizing analyses of diverse datasets, we estimate that the Renminbi was only undervalued by less than 8per cent in 2009. We conclude that China＇s external imbalance most probably results from deep-seated structural imbalances rather than Renminbi undervaluation.
基金Supported by the grant of Ministry of Science and Technology of the People' s Republic of China(2008ZX10002-25)National Natural Science Foundation of China(81070359)
文摘Objective:Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation(PRFA) is known to be as effective as hepatectomy for small hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) in the long-term.We wished to ascertain how it is for recurrent small HCC.Methods:From January 2009 to November 2011,a series of sixty-one patients were included in the study according to the criteria:each patient had one recurrent HCC,less than 5 cm in diameter.Twenty-six of the 61 patients were treated with PRFA and the other 35 were treated with repeat hepatectomy.Results:The interval from first surgery to recurrent for repeat hepatectomy and PRFA groups were(1,239.60±1,017.00) d and(903.42±975.11) d respectively(P=0.066).The tumor-free time after repeat hepatectomy and PRFA were(310.23±159.50) d and(278.27±123.29) d respectively(P=0.584).Size of tumor in repeat hepatectomy and PRFA were(7.34±3.16) cm^2 and(5.59±3.40) cm^2(P=0.215),the total expenditure for each patient of the two groups were(26,150.66±7,923.60) yuan and(21,135.00±1,156.76) yuan(RMB),and the time of hospitalization for each of the two groups were(15.29±4.28) d and(7.46±2.20) d(P<0.001).Conclusion:PRFA is proved to be as effective as repeat hepatectomy in the treatment of recurrent small HCC,and superior to repeat hepatectomy as it is less invasive.
文摘China＇s current inflation differs from that of the 1980s. The Current inflation is being caused by factors from both the supply and demand sides, and should therefore be addressed from both sides as well With a new policy analysis framework, we suggest that China now needs to adopt a policy combination of ＂supply expansion and demand tightening.＂ Demand tightening should mainly rely on the policy of quantitative monetary tightening, which specifically includes further tightening of capital controls and encouragement of outbound investment. Supply expansion should mainly rely on policies of tax cuts, Renminbi appreciation, reform, improvement of administration, and technological progress.
