This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforesta...This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation （REDD） mechanism. Basic data were obtained for implementing the REDD mechanism in the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） for scientific decision-making to prevent deforestation and forest degradation. The potential effects according to the implementation of the REDD mechanism in the DPRK based on forest status data （the latest） are as follows. If the deforestation rate is reduced to a level below 6% through a 20-year REDD mechanism beginning in 2011, 0.01-11.64 C-tons of carbon credit per ha could be issued for DPRK. Converted into C02-tons per ha, this amounts to 0.03-42.68 C02-tons, which translates to a minimum of 226,000 CO2-tons and a maximum of 289,082,000 C02-tons overall for forests in DPRK. In terms of carbon price, this measures up to 1.1o million USD- 1.4 billion USD, considering that the REDD carbon price in voluntary carbon markets in 2010 was around 5 USD.展开更多
The technology investment strategy under uncertainty is the key subject. However, the expected utility maximization often employed as the decision process fails to consider the high risk with low probability cases. On...The technology investment strategy under uncertainty is the key subject. However, the expected utility maximization often employed as the decision process fails to consider the high risk with low probability cases. On the other hand, the existing min-max regret strategy tends to be dominated by the ＂worst assumption＂ regardless of its probability. This research proposes a new framework by formulating the regret by the Minkowski＇s generalized distance. The authors then apply the formulation to the IAM （integrated assessment model） MARIA. This study focuses on the uncertainties of CCS （carbon capture and storage） costs and the global warming damages. This formulation is then extended to the multi-stage decision frame, known as ATL （act-then-learn） method. The simulation results suggest that the substantial changes in CCS and nuclear deployment strategies depending on the future uncertainty scenarios. The results also suggest that the minimum regret strategy favors the capital accumulation in the early stage.展开更多
文摘This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation （REDD） mechanism. Basic data were obtained for implementing the REDD mechanism in the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） for scientific decision-making to prevent deforestation and forest degradation. The potential effects according to the implementation of the REDD mechanism in the DPRK based on forest status data （the latest） are as follows. If the deforestation rate is reduced to a level below 6% through a 20-year REDD mechanism beginning in 2011, 0.01-11.64 C-tons of carbon credit per ha could be issued for DPRK. Converted into C02-tons per ha, this amounts to 0.03-42.68 C02-tons, which translates to a minimum of 226,000 CO2-tons and a maximum of 289,082,000 C02-tons overall for forests in DPRK. In terms of carbon price, this measures up to 1.1o million USD- 1.4 billion USD, considering that the REDD carbon price in voluntary carbon markets in 2010 was around 5 USD.
文摘The technology investment strategy under uncertainty is the key subject. However, the expected utility maximization often employed as the decision process fails to consider the high risk with low probability cases. On the other hand, the existing min-max regret strategy tends to be dominated by the ＂worst assumption＂ regardless of its probability. This research proposes a new framework by formulating the regret by the Minkowski＇s generalized distance. The authors then apply the formulation to the IAM （integrated assessment model） MARIA. This study focuses on the uncertainties of CCS （carbon capture and storage） costs and the global warming damages. This formulation is then extended to the multi-stage decision frame, known as ATL （act-then-learn） method. The simulation results suggest that the substantial changes in CCS and nuclear deployment strategies depending on the future uncertainty scenarios. The results also suggest that the minimum regret strategy favors the capital accumulation in the early stage.
