The interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions plays an important role in the national emission reduction target among China's provinces. Furthermore, it will affect the smooth start-up of the national carbon...The interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions plays an important role in the national emission reduction target among China's provinces. Furthermore, it will affect the smooth start-up of the national carbon trade market as well as the implementation of targets in 2030 for dealing with the climate change. Based on constructed MRIO model, this paper analyzes the embodied carbon emission trade flows among Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The results indicate that six provinces have formed different patterns of carbon trade balance, where Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces are in a deficit position, while the other three provinces are in a surplus position.Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have transferred part of the carbon emissions to the other three provinces, which shows greater heterogeneity among various provinces and provincial different sectors. On basis of the conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on provincial decomposition, responsibility distribution, and provincial collaborative reduction for national emission reduction targets.展开更多
The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main i...The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China.展开更多
Land cover is one of the most basic input elements of land surface and climate models. Currently, the direct and indirect effects of land cover data on climate and climate change are receiving increasing attentions. I...Land cover is one of the most basic input elements of land surface and climate models. Currently, the direct and indirect effects of land cover data on climate and climate change are receiving increasing attentions. In this study, a high resolution(30 m) global land cover dataset(Globe Land30) produced by Chinese scientists was, for the first time, used in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM) to assess the influences of land cover dataset on land surface and climate simulations. A two-step strategy was designed to use the Globe Land30 data in the model. First, the Globe Land30 data were merged with other satellite remote sensing and climate datasets to regenerate plant functional type(PFT) data fitted for the BCC_CSM. Second, the up-scaling based on an area-weighted approach was used to aggregate the fine-resolution Globe Land30 land cover type and area percentage with the coarser model grid resolutions globally. The Globe Land30-based and the BCC_CSM-based land cover data had generally consistent spatial distribution features, but there were some differences between them. The simulation results of the different land cover type dataset change experiments showed that effects of the new PFT data were larger than those of the new glaciers and water bodies(lakes and wetlands). The maximum value was attained when dataset of all land cover types were changed. The positive bias of precipitation in the mid-high latitude of the northern hemisphere and the negative bias in the Amazon, as well as the negative bias of air temperature in part of the southern hemisphere, were reduced when the Globe Land30-based data were used in the BCC_CSM atmosphere model. The results suggest that the Globe Land30 data are suitable for use in the BCC_CSM component models and can improve the performance of the land and atmosphere simulations.展开更多
Future climate change is usually projected by coupled earth system models under specific emission sce- narios designed by integrated assessment models （IAMs）, and this offline approach means there is no interaction ...Future climate change is usually projected by coupled earth system models under specific emission sce- narios designed by integrated assessment models （IAMs）, and this offline approach means there is no interaction between the coupled earth system models and the IAMs. This paper introduces a new method to design possible future emission scenarios and corresponding climate change, in which a simple economic and climate damage component is added to the coupled earth system model of Beijing Normal University （BNU-ESM）. With the growth of population and technological expertise and the declining emission-to-output ratio described in the Dynamic Inte- grated Climate-Economy model, the projected carbon emission is 13.7 Gt C, resulting in a 2.4℃ warming by the end of the twenty-first century （2080-2099） compared with 1980-1999. This paper also suggests the importance of the land and ocean carbon cycle in determining the CO2 con- centration in the atmosphere. It is hoped that in the near future the next generation of coupled earth system models that include both the natural system and the social dimension will be developed.展开更多
基金sponsored by the Project in the National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period(Grant No.2011BAJ07B07)Program for the Philosophy and Social Sciences Research of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi(Grant No.115544901002)the National Research Foundation(NRF)Singapore(Grant No.FI 370074011)
文摘The interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions plays an important role in the national emission reduction target among China's provinces. Furthermore, it will affect the smooth start-up of the national carbon trade market as well as the implementation of targets in 2030 for dealing with the climate change. Based on constructed MRIO model, this paper analyzes the embodied carbon emission trade flows among Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The results indicate that six provinces have formed different patterns of carbon trade balance, where Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces are in a deficit position, while the other three provinces are in a surplus position.Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have transferred part of the carbon emissions to the other three provinces, which shows greater heterogeneity among various provinces and provincial different sectors. On basis of the conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on provincial decomposition, responsibility distribution, and provincial collaborative reduction for national emission reduction targets.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under No. 2010CB951903the National Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 41105054, 41205043the China Meteorological Administration under Grant No.GYHY201106022, GYHY201306048, CMAYBY2012-001
文摘The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2009AA122005)the Public Welfare Meteorology Research Project of China (Grant Nos. 201506023, 201306048)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275076, 40905046)
文摘Land cover is one of the most basic input elements of land surface and climate models. Currently, the direct and indirect effects of land cover data on climate and climate change are receiving increasing attentions. In this study, a high resolution(30 m) global land cover dataset(Globe Land30) produced by Chinese scientists was, for the first time, used in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM) to assess the influences of land cover dataset on land surface and climate simulations. A two-step strategy was designed to use the Globe Land30 data in the model. First, the Globe Land30 data were merged with other satellite remote sensing and climate datasets to regenerate plant functional type(PFT) data fitted for the BCC_CSM. Second, the up-scaling based on an area-weighted approach was used to aggregate the fine-resolution Globe Land30 land cover type and area percentage with the coarser model grid resolutions globally. The Globe Land30-based and the BCC_CSM-based land cover data had generally consistent spatial distribution features, but there were some differences between them. The simulation results of the different land cover type dataset change experiments showed that effects of the new PFT data were larger than those of the new glaciers and water bodies(lakes and wetlands). The maximum value was attained when dataset of all land cover types were changed. The positive bias of precipitation in the mid-high latitude of the northern hemisphere and the negative bias in the Amazon, as well as the negative bias of air temperature in part of the southern hemisphere, were reduced when the Globe Land30-based data were used in the BCC_CSM atmosphere model. The results suggest that the Globe Land30 data are suitable for use in the BCC_CSM component models and can improve the performance of the land and atmosphere simulations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41605036 and 41305053)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0602703)+1 种基金the National-Level Major Cultivation Project of Guangdong Province (2014GKXM058)the Open Project of the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science (SKLCS-OP-2016-09)
文摘Future climate change is usually projected by coupled earth system models under specific emission sce- narios designed by integrated assessment models （IAMs）, and this offline approach means there is no interaction between the coupled earth system models and the IAMs. This paper introduces a new method to design possible future emission scenarios and corresponding climate change, in which a simple economic and climate damage component is added to the coupled earth system model of Beijing Normal University （BNU-ESM）. With the growth of population and technological expertise and the declining emission-to-output ratio described in the Dynamic Inte- grated Climate-Economy model, the projected carbon emission is 13.7 Gt C, resulting in a 2.4℃ warming by the end of the twenty-first century （2080-2099） compared with 1980-1999. This paper also suggests the importance of the land and ocean carbon cycle in determining the CO2 con- centration in the atmosphere. It is hoped that in the near future the next generation of coupled earth system models that include both the natural system and the social dimension will be developed.
