册亨县早熟蔬菜种植的气候发展前景分析

通过对册亨县气象站记录的39 a观测资料,从光、热、水和气象自然灾害等多个方面进行分析,寻找出适宜册亨县早熟菜蔬种植的气候指标,充分利用册亨县的气候资源,促进其早熟蔬菜产业的发展。规划出册亨县早熟蔬菜的最佳适宜种植区域和一般性适宜种植区域。

全球发展倡议下的中国-东盟气候合作

中国与东盟的多数国家都是发展中国家,在气候合作领域具有相同需求,但也面临不少挑战。为此,对全球发展倡议下的中国—东盟气候合作进行研究,提出应从凝聚东盟内部共识、技术共享、科学评估、统筹资源等多维度拓宽合作场景,助力绿色发展转型和联合国可持续发展目标的实现。

安理会气候变化与安全辩论:共识、分歧及其逻辑

联合国安理会内气候变化与安全的辩论已经持续十几年之久,但是这些辩论并未达成有关气候变化与安全的普遍性决议。既有的研究文献大多利用安全化理论来描述和解释这个过程,但是缺乏解释力和叙事的完整性。安全化理论的一个重要局限是忽视安全化进程中听众的能动性,因此无法对安理会气候变化与安全辩论的整个进程和结果提供令人信服的解释。作者建立了一个新的比较分析框架,据此对这些辩论的逐字会议记录进行了较为完整的分析,并提出辩论中其实存在着两种话语实践,代表着对气候变化的安全风险和应对途径的两种认知和逻辑,而不仅仅是安全化的途径和逻辑。从政策的角度看,安理会内气候变化与安全辩论虽然存在有限的共识,但面临着巨大的认知差异、话语竞争和逻辑分歧,通过具有约束力的普遍性决议的政治可行性较低,以《联合国气候变化框架公约》为基础的全球气候变化治理机制是应对气候变化问题的最具权威性、合法性、普遍性和专业性的治理安排。中国作为安理会常任理事国,不仅应维护该机制的主渠道地位,也应在安理会气候变化与安全辩论中发挥更大作用。

IPCC AR6报告关于气候恢复力发展的解读

文中对IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第二工作组(WGII)报告关于气候恢复力发展(CRD)相关内容进行解读。CRD的概念最初由IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)引入,AR6在AR5的基础上进行了更新,正式将CRD定义为实施温室气体减缓和适应措施的过程,以支持所有人的可持续发展。新的定义更加强调了公平性原则,并且在评估内容中对不同社会选择进行了细致的描述,增强了CRD的可操作性,也强调了其紧迫性与不可逆性。报告主要从适应的角度阐述了如何在人类系统和自然系统中促成CRD的实现:城市化趋势为CRD同时带来了机遇与挑战,城市化在加剧气候变化风险的同时也会通过带动周边乡村地区的适应行动来推动CRD;保护生态系统多样性有助于保护生态系统也有助于提高其自身的恢复力,但在较高温升水平下部分适应行动将会无法实施。AR6 WGII报告评估显示,比起AR5报告的时间节点(2014年)的评估结论,当前全球CRD行动更紧迫,实行有效的、公平的应对气候变化措施迫在眉睫。

迈向“正气候”目标的中国城市规划建设路径图

我国的《国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》于2016年3月17日发布,其中应对全球气候变化内容包括具体任务如"推进工业、能源、建筑、交通等重点领域低碳发展。支持优化开发区域率先实现碳排放达到峰值。深化各类低碳试点,实施近零碳排放区示范工程"。我们要从城区空间与多元化手段整合的要求上,通过创新规划、设计、运营路径达到零碳排放的整体净效应。我们需要提出"正气候"的城市项目发展模式,作为未来我国城市通过城区建设更新带来的机遇,迈向零碳排放的手段。正气候发展模式一方面要求把未来新建城区的碳排放量最少化,同时也要把握城区发展和更新的机遇,使周边地区碳排放量减低的正外部性(如城市空间(如土地-交通)结构重组、推动绿色建筑、周边社区减碳项目的投资、既有建筑节能改造、推动市场手段与体制改革等,最后使在运营阶段达到"净负排放"整体效果。这就是"正气候"效果。迈向正气候的城区发展模式,需要在目前我国法定城市规划与建设流程上提出创新体制,引入"场地内"与"场地外"的减缓碳排放机制,编制正气候城区建设路径图,在建设全生命周期内保障减碳排放目标能够被贯彻,于项目完成后在运营阶段达到正气候效果。正气候城区建设模式是我国未来迈向近零碳排放区建设的有效路径。。

沙尘暴雨土与冰后期古气候进程

当前沙尘暴活动愈益受到人们关注,或以为其是近期以来人为破坏荒漠植被的结果。分析第四纪黄土生成历史,以及历史时期大量雨土记录可见,其实沙尘暴古已有之,古时活动剧烈程度较今日有过之无不及。黄土堆积乃沙尘暴的直接产物,雨土是其过程和现象。第四纪冰期结束以来的全新世期间,存在2500-3000年的冷暖干湿变化周期。经历了大约2500年的亚大西洋期行将结束,新的灾变时期即将来临。在此总的大自然气候发展背景下,沙尘暴活动加强是不可避免的,人为活动并非主要因素,只不过加剧其程度而已。

全球应对气候变化灾害风险的进展与对策

灾害风险内化于发展进程,是经济社会发展的伴生产物。应对气候变化、降低灾害风险是联合国人类可持续发展的重要目标。随着全球极端天气气候事件不断增加,联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出“气候韧性发展”理念。2022年6月,生态环境部等17部门联合发布《国家适应气候变化战略2035》,提出到2035年基本建成气候适应型社会。为此,应发挥气候适应的“三重红利”,在后疫情时代提升经济韧性和民生福祉,在碳中和目标下加强适应与减排的协同效应,发掘传统文化中的减灾智慧,建设韧性社会。

气候安全的作用机制、风险评估与治理路径

气候变化是全球性的新型非传统安全问题,对人类社会产生深刻影响。气候风险的溢出性对国家安全和国际安全造成严重威胁。气候变化引发传统安全问题,加剧非传统安全问题,激化发展中国家资源竞争与武装冲突,地缘政治竞争和气候变化安全风险的跨国扩散加剧全球安全风险。从国家安全和人类安全两大概念入手,遵循“后果—影响—风险”的逻辑链条,构建气候安全评价指标体系,有助于开展气候风险评估。目前,发达国家率先开展气候安全治理,国际组织积极推动各国采取行动,但是国际社会应对气候变化的政策与行动不能适应气候风险的范围和规模。借鉴发达国家的成功经验,提升全球气候安全治理水平,应当加强针对气候安全风险的分析评估与管理,结合气候风险特征完善区域气候安全治理路径,协同推进气候变化的减缓、适应和灾害风险管理,制定并完善气候安全风险分级管理政策框架,通过气候外交与大国合作构建全球气候共同体。

能源战略下的能源电力发展方向和碳排放问题

[目的]发展经济和保护环境是各学科学者对社会未来发展关注的重点。在世界能源格局中,我国的能源战略的指导方针,能源发展调整的方向,具体落实到低碳减排、节能的措施等等,成为了广大处于能源电力行业的人员迫切关注的问题。[方法]基于对我国能源战略的解读,阐述了能源革命是一个政策导向的、目标倒逼的过程。在当前国际国内背景下,考虑资源和环境两大因素,引入了能源强度、气候强度以及能源技术效率等衡量指标概念,比照当前的能源结构、效率和碳排放系数,对能源电力发展的方向做了梳理:一是提高能源效率,二是调整能源结构。而对与能源电力发展不可分割的低碳减排问题,则从减少排放和排放后的集中处理两个方面进行了量化分析和应用前景探讨。[结果]文章论证了能源发展的关键在于依靠科技创新,顺应能源结构调整的趋势,提高能源效率,大力开发可再生能源、加快从传统能源向清洁能源的转变。[结论]中国面临从化石燃料推动的经济发展模式向可持续性发展的模式的转变,低碳能源战略是中国能源的可持续发展之路。

低碳旅游概念辨识及其实现途径

随着节能减排、应对气候变化等概念的实践和推广,低碳旅游也越来越多的被提及和实践。低碳旅游由于其新,无国际经验可循,在概念、内涵以及实现途径等方面认识还不够深入,甚至形成了一些认识的误区,实践中可能因为认识的偏误,阻碍旅游业的发展,而忽略了"低碳发展"所特有的协同发展与控制温室气体排放的积极意义。本文认为,低碳发展是异于传统旅游业发展模式的一种转型发展方式,具有明确的保护气候环境的目的。同时,旅游业是主张消费和体验的行业,低碳旅游不应该以刻意减少或约束消费和体验为手段来实现,低碳旅游的实现途径是多样的,不仅仅有节能减排,还可以根据不同地区的资源条件,选择以成本最低的方式实现低碳发展。我国正处于经济和旅游业的快速发展期,实践低碳旅游发展必然会面临更多挑战,但尽早实现低碳旅游发展转型,不仅对发展低碳经济、保障气候安全做出贡献,也能为改善生态环境,保障能源安全,实现可持续发展做出贡献。

IPCC第六次评估报告第二工作组报告解读

IPCC第六次评估报告第二工作组报告《气候变化2022:影响、适应和脆弱性》凝练了当前和未来气候变化的影响、脆弱性和风险,同时提出了应对气候变化的解决方案。报告警示全球实现气候韧性发展的机会窗口正在快速缩小,需要迅速采取适应与减缓相结合的行动来应对气候变化。中国应科学认识并准确把握IPCC报告及主要结论,认识IPCC报告对全球气候治理的潜在影响,为继续积极主动参与全球气候治理贡献中国智慧。

Glacier changes since the early 1960s, eastern Pamir, China

Glaciers in the eastern Pamir are important for water resources and the social and economic development of the region.In the last 50 years,these glaciers have shrunk and lost ice mass due to climate change.In order to understand recent glacier dynamics in the region,a new inventory was compiled from Landsat TM/ETM+ images acquired in2009,free of clouds and with minimal snow cover on the glacierized mountains.The first glacier inventory of the area was also updated by digitizing glacier outlines from topographical maps that had been modified and verified using aerial photographs.Total glacier area decreased by 10.8%±1.1%,mainly attributed to an increase in air temperature,although precipitation,glacier size and topographic features also combined to affect the general shrinkage of the glaciers.The 19.3–21.4 km^3 estimated glacier mass loss has contributed to an increase in river runoff and water resources.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Tourism Climate Suitability in Qinghai Province, China

Qinghai Province is an important component of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Scientific evaluation of the suitability of Qinghai's climate for tourism can contribute to overcoming obstacles posed by climate on sustainable tourism development in Qinghai Province, including disparities between the low and high seasons, high altitude health concerns, and weather events. A tourism climate suitability evaluation model of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is constructed (Tourism Climate Suitability Index, or TCSI), and tourism climate suitability is comprehensively evaluated for Qinghai Province from climate data from 1960 to 2009. Results show that: (I) There is clear distributional characteristics of spatial-temporal variability of TCSI values in Qinghai Province. (II) Tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province has significant seasonal and regional differences. The year is divided into a very suitable period (July and August), suitable tourism periods (from April and October), less suitable periods (From Nov to Mar). June to August is the most suitable tourism period in Qinghai. Qinghai Province is divided into five levels of tourism climate suitability: most suitable regions, very suitable regions, suitable regions, less suitable regions, and unsuitable region. (III) The key factor which influences regional differences in tourism climatic suitability is atmospheric oxygen. And the key factors which chiefly influence seasonal differences of tourism climate suitability are temperature and humidity, the wind chill factor, and barrier weather.

Agriculture Development-induced Surface Albedo Changes and Climatic Implications Across Northeastern China

To improve the understandings on regional climatic effects of past human-induced land cover changes,the surface albedo changes caused by conversions from natural vegetation to cropland were estimated across northeastern China over the last 300 years,and its climatic effects were simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Essential natural vegetation records compiled from historical documents and regional optimal surface albedo dataset were used.The results show that the surface albedo decreased by 0.01-0.03 due to conversions from grassland to cropland in the Northeast China Plain and it increased by 0.005-0.015 due to conversions from forests to cropland in the surrounding mountains.As a consequence,in the Northeast China Plain,the surface net radiation increased by 4-8 W/m 2,2-5 W/m 2,and 1-3 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore warmed by 0.1℃-0.2℃、0.1℃-0.2℃、 0.1℃-0.3 ℃ in the spring,autumn and winter,respectively.In the surrounding mountain area,the net radiation decreased by less than 1.5 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore cooled too slight to be detected.In summer,effects of surface albedo changes on climate were closely associated with moisture dynamics,such as evapotranspiration and cloud,instead of being merely determined by surface radiation budget.The simulated summer climatic effects have large uncertainties.These findings demonstrate that surface albedo changes resulted in warming climate effects in the non-rainy seasons in Northeast China Plain through surface radiation processes while the climatic effects in summer could hardly be concluded so far.

Coping with climate change and China's wind energy sustainable development

Greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of today's climate change. To address this problem, the world is in an era of new round energy transformation, and the existing energy structure is being reformed. In this paper, according to the Chinese government's action plan for coping with climate change, the China's wind energy sustainable development goals and development route are discussed, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Wind energy is currently a kind of important renewable energy with matured technology which can be scale-up developed and put into commercial application, and in this transformation, wind energy will play a key role with other non-fossil energy sources. The development and utilization of wind energy is a systematic project, which needs to be solved from the aspects of policy, technology and management. At present, China is in the stage of transferring from "large wind power country" to "strong wind power country", opportunities and challenges coexist, and the advantages of China's socialist system could be fully used, which can concentrate power to do big things and make contribution in the process of realizing global energy transformation.

Addressing the trade-climate change-energy nexus: China's explorations in a global governance landscape

We have arrived at a critical juncture when it comes to understanding the numerous ways in which trade interacts with climate change and energy(trade-climate-energy nexus).Trade remains crucial for the sustainable development of the world's greatest trading nation:China.After clarifying the linkages within the trade,climate change and energy nexus,this article delves into China's specific needs and interests related to trade,climate change and energy.Then it explores the ways in which trade can contribute to China's needs,to sustainable energy development and to the goals of the global climate agreement that is under negotiation.One main findings are China is a key participant in negotiations on trade liberalization of environmental technologies and services.These negotiations are in China's interests in terms of innovative industries,technological upgrading,employment and public health.China could stand up for the interests of other emerging and developing countries and serve as an example in terms of transitioning to a low-carbon economy.Beyond trade barriers issues of domestic(energy)regulation such as fossil-fuel subsidies as well as investment,competition-policy,tradefacilitation and transit issues related to clean energy need to be addressed.Building trust between relevant actors across sectors and national borders will be of the essence in order to foster long-term cooperation on technological innovation.As a way forward,different approaches towards the governance of trade and climate change will be highlighted.Besides discussing the specific aspects of Chinese participation in global trade and climate change governance,this paper aims at offering broader insights into the nexus between trade,energy and climate governance in China.

Global Trend of Low-carbon Economy and China's Responses

Based on the analysis on the global economic crisis,climate change crisis and their mutual underlying reasons,the authors believe that low-carbon economy has become an inevitable choice to break through the dual crises,coordinate the economic development,and protect the global climate.The global trend of low-carbon economy finds expression in Green Recovery currently,while,in a long run,it will give rise to a new pattern of world competition in politics,economy,technology,trade and finance.The impact of the global trend of low-carbon economy on China can not be overlooked,and it is both a challenge and an opportunity for China＇s future development.Based on comparative studies on the low-carbon economy of China,the U.S.,EU and Japan,the authors conclude that China should blaze a new path of lowcarbon economy development with Chinese characteristics,and the authors have put forward relevant countermeasures for China to address the global trend of low-carbon economy from angles of countries,enterprises and the public

The Concept and Theoretical Implications of Carbon Emissions Rights Based on Individual Equity

Climate change has become a hot topic in international environmental negotiations.For post-Kyoto international climate regime negotiations,many countries have proposed a variety of frameworks to share the emission reduction responsibilities and allocate carbon emission rights,and have tried to quantify the emission reduction obligations of all countries based on the perspectives of international equity and individual equity.In this paper,the authors have distinguished the concepts of carbon emissions rights based on these two perspectives respectively,have analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development,and have calculated and compared the proportion of cumulative emissions per capita of different countries in history and future,and then authors conclude that emission reduction obligations should be allocated based on each country's conditions,including historical emissions,development stage,and future demands.Developed countries should take the initiative to significantly reduce their emissions because they have already accomplished their industrialization process.However,developing countries are still in the process of industrialization,which requires more emission rights to meet their development needs.For China,the concept of carbon emissions based on individual equity can be used as a theoretical tool for the allocating the international carbon emissions rights.

Identifi cation of national priority areas for adaptation to climate change in China

The problem of global warming has been identif ied as the f irst in the list of the top ten environmental prob-lems in the world.As climate change will seriously affect the social and natural world that people live in,so it may lay serious repercussions on economic progress,social improvement,and sustainable development.International bodies everywhere and many of the countries' governments are responding urgently to this call.In recent years,climate change has affected different regions in China in different ways.In its national agenda,the Chinese government should address the problem of climate change and its negative impact on socio-economic development.In this endeavor the nation should introduce policies which will help its people and economy to adapt to these effects and changes.Priorityf ields of adaptation to climate change are the sensitive areas or departments which are more vulnerable to the negative influences of climate change.The negative impacts of climate change in some parts of China are considered to be very serious indeed as they affect the whole economy and community.As a result,priority should be given to these more affected regions for the limited state f inancing.This paper def ines adaptation and discusses the basic principles and programs in the identif ication of national priority areas where adaptation should be exercised.Based on the past studies,four priority areas in China are identif ied,namely,disaster prevention and mitigation,water resources,agriculture,and ecosystem.An analysis on the identifi cation procedures,and the reasons and tasks involved are given for each.