廊坊市气候变化对水资源环境的影响分析

利用廊坊市1964～2003年间气候、水资源等相关资料,分析了廊坊市气候变化及其对水资源环境的影响特征。随年代变化,廊坊市呈现出气温升高、降水减少的变化趋势,使得生态环境表现出水资源短缺、水位下降、水质恶化等脆弱性增强的特征,危机加重。尤其自1997年以来,廊坊市在气候持续变暖背景下,枯水、平水年份连年出现,加剧了人类破坏水资源环境的强度。加强节水意识、修建合理蓄水设施、高效利用汛期自然降水、扩大绿化面积、改善生态环境等是保护水资源环境和维持社会可持续发展的必然要求。

A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Birds:Implications of Long-term Studies

It is generally accepted that climate has changed greatly on a global scale, and that the earth＇s climate has already wanned by some degrees over the past century. Ample evidence shows that there have been apparent changes in avian population dynamics, life-history traits and geographic ranges in response to global climate change. This paper briefly reviews the possible effects of climate change on avian biology and ecology all over the world, with emphasis on new findings from several long-term studies in Europe and North America, which provide unique opportunities to investigate how long-term changes in climate affect birds at both individual and population levels. The implications of such long-term studies for future bird studies in China is discussed with hope that this review can contribute to the preparation and plan for studies of climatic effects on birds in China in the future.

Warming trend in northern East China Sea in recent four decades

Global warming has become a notable trend especially since an abrupt climate change in 1976. Response of the East China Sea （ECS） to the global warming trend, however, is not well understood because of sparse long-term observation. In this paper, hydrographic observation data of 1957-1996 are collected and reviewed to study climatological variability in northern ECS. Significant warming trends are found in both summer and winter. In summer, the average SST is about 0.46℃ higher during the period of 1977-1996 than that of 1957-1976, and the Taiwan Warm Current Water （TWCW） was strengthened. In winter, despite of the cooling effect in the coastal areas adjacent to the Changjiang （Yangtze） River Estuary （CRE）, the average SST increase was about 0.53℃ during the same period. The causes of this SST warming up in summer are different from in winter. The warming trend and intensification of the TWCW in summer were primarily influenced by the strengthening of the Kuroshio transport, while the warming in winter was mainly induced by the variability of the climate system.

Effect of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, Northwest China

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects of climate variability and human activities on the runoff. In this study, we analyzed 56-yr(1957–2012) runoff change and patterns in the Jinghe River Basin(JRB) in the arid region of northwest China. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and the precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve(PRDCC) were used to identify change trend and abrupt change points in the annual runoff. It was found that the runoff in the JRB has periodically fluctuated in the past 56 yr. Abrupt change point in annual runoff was identified in the JRB, which occurred in the years around 1964 and 1996 dividing the long-term hydrologic series into a natural period(1957 – 1964) and a climate and man-induced period(1965 – 1996 and 1997 – 2012). In the 1965 – 1996 period, human activities were the main factor that decreased runoff with contribution of 88.9%, while climate variability only accounted for 11.1%. However,the impact of climate variability has been increased from 11.1% to 47.5% during 1997 – 2012, showing that runoff in JRB is more sensitive to climate variability during global warming. This study distinguishes theeffect of climate variability from human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management.

Analysis of Surface Air Temperature Change in Macao During the Period 1901-2007

Change related to climate in Macao was studied on the basis of daily temperature observations over the period 1901-2007. The result shows that annual mean surface air temperature in Macao as a whole rose with a warming rate of about 0.066℃ per 10 years in the recent 107 years. The most evident warming occurred in spring and winter. The interdecadal variations of the seasonal mean temperature in summer and winter appeared as a series of waves with a time scale of about 30 years and 60 years, respectively. The annual mean minimum temperature increased about twice as fast as the annual mean maximum temperature, resulting in a broad decline in the annual mean diurnal range. The interdecadal variations of annual mean maximum temperature are obviously different from those of annual mean minimum temperature. It appears that the increase in the annual mean maximum temperature in the recent 20 years may be part of slow climate fluctuations with a periodicity of about 60 years, whereas that in the annual mean minimum temperature appears to be the continuation of a long-term warming trend.

Advancing Climate Dynamics Toward Reliable Regional Climate Projections

With a scientific consensus reached regarding the anthropogenic effect on global mean temperature, developing reliable regional climate projections has emerged as a new challenge for climate science. A national project was launched in China in 2012 to study ocean's role in regional climate change. This paper starts with a review of recent advances in the study of regional climate re-sponse to global warming, followed by a description of the Chinese project including the rationale, objectives, and plan for field ob-servations. The 15 research articles that follow in the special issue are highlighted, representing some of the initial results from the project.

Impact of Climatic Change on Agricultural Production and Response Strategies in China

A number of studies indicate that global climate warming has been increasing, especially in recent decades. Climate warming greatly affects global agro-production and food security-- becoming a hotspot of global environmental change. This paper proposes a structural and orientational framework for scientifically addressing climatic change impact on agroroduction. Through literature reviews and comparative studies, the paper systematically summarizes influencing mechanisms and impact of climate warming on such agro-production factors as light, temperature, soil quality and water environment. The impact of climate warm- ing on cultivation regions, cropping systems, crop pests, agro- production capacity, agro-economy and farm management is analyzed. Then, suitable climate-adapting agro-development strategies are put forward for different regions in China. The strategies are carefully selected from a repository of international tested climatic change countermeasures in agriculture at national or district level.

Trend in Observed and Projected Maximum and Minimum Temperature over N-W Himalayan Basin

Recently, study in past trends of climate variables gained significant consideration because of its contribution in adaptions and mitigation strategies for potential future changes in climate, primarily in the area of water resource management. Future interannual and inter-seasonal variations in maximum and minimum temperature may bring significant changes in hydrological systems and affect regional water resources. The present study has been performed to observe past(1970-2010) as well as future(2011-2100)spatial and temporal variability in temperature(maximum and minimum) over selected stations of Sutlej basin located in North-Western Himalayan region in India. The generation of future time series of temperature data at different stations is done using statistical downscaling technique. The nonparametric test methods, modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum chart are used for detecting monotonic trend and sequential shift in time series of maximum and minimum temperature. Sen's slope estimator test is used to detect the magnitude of change over a period of time on annual and seasonal basis. The cooling experienced in annual TMax and TMin at Kasol in past(1970-2010) would be replaced by warming in future as increasing trends are detected in TMax during 2020 s and 2050 s and in TMin during 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s under A1 B and A2 scenarios. Similar results of warming are also predicted at Sunnifor annual TMin in future under both scenarios which witnessed cooling during 1970-2010. The rise in TMin at Rampur is predicted to be continued in future as increasing trends are obtained under both the scenarios. Seasonal trend analysis reveals large variability in trends of TMax and TMin over these stations for the future periods.

Modeling the Roles of Precipitation Increasing in Glacier Systems Responding to Climate Warming—Taking Xinjiang Glaciated Region as Example

The studies on prediction of climate in Xinjiang almost show that the precipitation would increase in the coming 50 years, although there were surely some uncertainties in precipitation predictions. On the basis of the structure of glacier system and nature of equilibrium line altitude at steady state （ELAo）, a functional model of the glacier system responding to climate changes was established, and it simultaneously involved the rising of summer mean temperature and increasing of mean precipitation. The results from the functional model under the climatic scenarios with temperature increasing rates of 0.01, 0.03 and 0.05 K/year indicated that the precipitation increasing would play an evident role in glacier system responding to climate change： if temperature become 1 ℃ higher, the precipitation would be increased by 10%, which can slow down the glaciers retreating rate in the area by 4 %, accelerate runoff increasing rate by 8 % and depress the ELAo rising gradient by 24 m in northern Xinjiang glacier system where semi-continental glaciers dominate, while it has corresponding values of only 1%, 5 % and 18m respectively in southern Xinjiang glacier system, where extremely continental glaciers dominate.

Asian climate change under 1.5-4 ℃ warming targets

Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.

CLIMATIC FEATURES OF SUMMER TEMPERATURE IN NORTHEAST CHINA UNDER WARMING BACKGROUND

By using,summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China （NET） were analyzed based on the background of climate wanning. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15~C/10a in Northeast China, which was higher than that on the global, Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly, it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer; secondly, the temperature variability increased, which displayed the increase of climatic instability; thirdly, the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously, but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming background, which would be worthy of notice further.

Transaction Costs in Global Ecology Policy-Making

Global environmental meeting, legislating a reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases for planet earth, is what mankind now hopes for, having realized the enormous dangers in the process of climate change. Global warming is no longer denied by the so-called cornucopians （e.g. Lomberg）, but global policy-making originating in reunions of 190 governments or more stumble on collective action difficulties, spelled out in game theory. Paris will not succeed where Copenhagen failed, namely to arrive at a binding and enforceable global environment policy that will be implemented before it is too late. Instead, there will be massive transaction costs from negotiating and re-negotiating, endless voting, the making of promises exante and reneging ex post, as well as the futile attempts at any enforcement action, given state sovereignty. Mankind will have to learn how to cope with the outcomes of global warming, as resilience is the only hope.

Interannual Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northern Indian Ocean Associated with ENSO and IOD

The Northern Indian Ocean （NIO） sea surface temperature （SST） warming, associated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillations （ENSO） and the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） mode, is investigated using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set （ICOADS） monthly data for the period 1979-2010. Statistical analy- ses are used to identify respective contribution from ENSO and IOD. The results indicate that the first NIO SST warming in September-November is associated with an IOD event, while the second NIO SST warming in spring-summer following the mature phase of ENSO is associated with an ENSO event. In the year that IOD co-occurred with ENSO, NIO SST warms twice, rising in the ENSO developing year and decay year. Both short- wave radiation and latent heat flux contribute to the NIO SST variation. The change in shortwave radiation is due to the change in cloudiness. A cloud-SST feedback plays an important role in NIO SST warming. The latent heat flux is related to the change in monsoonal wind. In the first NIO warming, the SST anomaly is mainly due to the change in the latent heat flux. In the second NIO warming, both factors are important.

Vegetation Cover Variation in the Qilian Mountains and its Response to Climate Change in 2000-2011

An understanding 0f variati0ns in vegetati0n c0ver in resp0nse t0 climate change is critical f0r predicting and managing future terrestrial ec0system dynamics. Because scientists anticipate that m0untain ec0systems will be m0re sensitive t0 future climate change c0mpared t0 0thers, 0ur 0bjectives were t0 investigate the impacts 0f climate change 0n variati0n in vegetati0n c0ver in the Qilian M0untains （QLM）, China, between 2000 and 2011. T0 acc0mplish this, we used linear regressi0n techniques 0n 250-m MODIS N0rmalized Difference Vegetati0n Index （NDVI） datasets and mete0r0l0gical rec0rds t0 determine spati0temp0ral variability in vegetati0n c0ver and climatic fact0rs （i.e. temperature and precipitati0n）. Our results sh0wed that temperatures and precipitati0n have increased in this regi0n during 0ur study peri0d. In additi0n, we f0und that gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI was mainly distributed in the vertical z0ne fr0m 2,700 m t0 3,600 m in elevati0n. In the study regi0n, we 0bserved significant p0sitive and negative trends in vegetati0n c0ver in 26.71% and 2.27% 0f the vegetated areas. C0rrelati0n analyses indicated that rising precipitati0n fr0m May t0 August was resp0nsible f0r increased vegetati0n c0ver in areas with p0sitive trends in gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI. H0wever, there was n0 similar significant c0rrelati0n between gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI and precipitati0n in regi0ns where vegetati0n c0ver declined thr0ugh0ut 0ur study peri0d. Using spatial statistics, we f0und that veeetati0n c0ver freauentlvdeclined in areas within the 2,500-3,100 m vertical z0ne, where it has steep sl0pe, and is 0n the sunny side 0f m0untains. Here, the p0sitive influences 0f increasing precipitati0n c0uld n0t 0ffset the drier c0nditi0ns that 0ccurred thr0ugh warming trends. In c0ntrast, in higher elevati0n z0nes （3,900-4,500 m） 0n the shaded side 0f the m0untains, rising temperatures and increasing precipitati0n impr0ved c0nditi0ns f0r vegetati0n gr0wth. Increased precipitati0n als0 facilitated vegetati0n gr0wth in areas experiencing warming trends at l0wer elevati0ns （2,000-2,400 m） and 0n l0wer sl0pes where water was m0re easily c0nserved. We suggest that spatial differences in variati0n in vegetati0n as the result 0f climate change depend 0n l0cal m0isture and thermal c0nditi0ns, which are mainly c0ntr0lled by t0p0graphy （e.g. elevati0n, aspect, and sl0pe）, and 0ther fact0rs, such as l0cal hydr0l0gy.

Impact of Regional Development on Carbon Emission: Empirical Evidence Across Countries

Global warming is recently an urgent issue worldwide. The increase of carbon emissions induced by human economic activi- ties has become a major driving force behind global climate change. Thus, as a matter of social responsibility, reasonable carbon con- straints should be implemented to ensure environmental security and sustainable development for every country. Based on a summary of studies that examined the relationship between carbon emissions and regional development, this paper shows that human activity-led carbon emission is caused by the combination of several influencing factors, including population size, income level, and technical pro- gress. Thus, a quantitative model derived from IPAT-ImPACT-Kaya series and STIRPAT models was established. Empirical analysis using multivariate nonlinear regression demonstrated that the origins of growing global carbon emission included the increasing influ- encing elasticity of the population size and the declining negative effect of technical progress. Meanwhile, in context of classification of country groups at different income levels, according to the comparison of fluctuating patterns of the influencing elasticity, technical progress was found as the main factor influencing carbon emission levels in high-income countries, and population size might he the controlling factor in middle-income countries. However, for low-income countries, the nonlinear relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors was not significant, whereas population growth was identified as an important potential driving force in future carbon emissions. This study can therefore provide a reference for the formulation of policies on carbon constraints, especially to de- velop more efficient carbon mitigating policies for countries at different income levels.

Implications of Climate Change on Streamflow of a Snow-Fed River System of the Northwest Himalaya

Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends （＋0.11℃decade） reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming （＋0.7℃/decade） trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model （SRM） based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamfiow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5%-40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.

Rock chemical weathering by sulfuric acid: pathway, method and prospect

To investigate the role of sulfuric acid-based carbonate weathering in global CO_2 sequestration of climate changes, we systematically discussed the pathway of sulfuric acid in rock chemical weathering and its feedback mechanism for global warming. We showed the methods used to determine the accurate amount of sulfate flux,accounting for the sulfuric acid resulted from sulfide oxidation. Finally, we pointed out some prospects for further detailed work on the exact calculation of the sulfate fluxes for the CO_2 net-release.

Primary Discussion of a Carbon Sink in the Oceans

As a consequence of global warming and rising sea levels, the oceans are becoming a matter of concern for more and more people because these changes will impact the growth of living organisms as well as people＇s living standards. In particular, it is extremely important that the oceans absorb massive amounts of carbon dioxide. This paper takes a pragmatic approach to analyzing the oceans with respect to the causes of discontinuities in oceanic variables of carbon dioxide sinks. We report on an application of chemical, physical and biological methods to analyze the changes of carbon dioxide in oceans. Based on the relationships among the oceans, land, atmosphere and sediment with respect to carbon dioxide, the foundation of carbon dioxide in shell-building and ocean acidification, the changes in carbon dioxide in the oceans and their impact on climate change, and so on, a vital conclusion can be drawn from this study. Specifically, under the condition that the oceans are not disturbed by external forces, the oceans are a large carbon dioxide sink. The result can also be inferred by the formula： C=A-B and G=E＋F when the marine ecosystem can keep a natural balance and the amount of carbon dioxide emission is limited within the calrying capacity of the oceans.

Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems in Northeast China

This paper reviews the studies and research on climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems in Northeast China. The results show that in the context of global and regional warming, the growing season of coniferous forests has been increasing at an average rate of 3.9 d per decade. Regional warming favors the growth of temperate broad-leaved forests and has a detrimental effect on the growth of boreal coniferous forests. Over the past hundred years, the forest edge of the cool temperate zone in the southern Daxing＇anling region has retreated 140 km northward. From 1896 to 1986, the northern boundary of broad-leaved forests in Heilongjiang province has extended northwestward about 290 km. Future climatic changes （until 2060） may lead to the northern deciduous needle forests moving out of China＇s territory altogether. The occurrence cycles of pests and diseases have shortened; their distribution ranges have expanded. The life cycle of tent caterpillars （Malacosoma neustria testacea Motschulsky） has shortened from 14-15 years in the past to 8-10 years now. The pine caterpillar （Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu）, which has spread within western Liaoning province and the nearby areas, can now be found in the north and west. Lightning fires in the Daxing＇anling region have significantly increased since 1987, and August has become the month when lightning fires occur most frequently. Overall, the net primary productivity （NPP） of forest in Northeast China has increased. The NPP in 1981 was around 0.27 Pg C, and increased to approximately 0.40 Pg C in 2002. With the current climate, the broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem acts as a carbon sink, with a carbon sink capacity of 2.7 Mg C hm-2. Although the carbon sink capacity of the forest ecosystems in Northeast China has been weakened since 2003, the total carbon absorption will still increase. The forest ecosystems in Northeast China are likely to remain a significant carbon sink, and will play a positive role in the mitigation of climate change.

Progress in Research on the Impacts of Global Climate Change on Winter Ski Tourism

The impacts of global climate change on ski tourism, which depends heavily on climate conditions, have increasingly gained concern overseas. This paper systematically summarized the relevant research ideas, the technical methods used, and the obtained achievements through an extensive synthesis of the previous studies. Moreover, the major shortcomings and the limitations in the recent studies are pointed in order to present a useful reference for our Chinese investigators. It indicates that the future climate warming would cause the loss of skiable areas, the shortening of skiing seasons and the sharp drop of ski visitors in many low altitude and low latitude ski resorts. The paper finally stressed that future research should pay particular attention to strengthening interdisciplinary cooperation and consider more factors about the impacts of climate-induced environmental changes on tourist flows. In the future ski resort planning and management, the possible impacts of global climate change should be taken into account.