基于BP神经网络的全球气候变化预测模型

考虑了大气中历年二氧化碳排放量、地球的吸热散热与海洋表面温度变化等因素,建立了基于BP神经网络的全球气候变化预测模型,对未来25年的气候变化进行预测。实验结果显示,未来25年全球平均气温呈现缓慢上升趋势,但上升率仅为0.02%,并最终趋于平缓。

金华地区未来30年气候变化的预测

本文用灰色系统拓扑预测方法，对金华地区的气候长期变化趋势的预测能力进行了研究。结果表明：该预测模型具有较高预测精度和预测准确率。用该预测模型对金华地区未来３０年气候变化趋势进行预测，结果与已有的研究结论一致。

黔南七星洞石笋古气候变化记录及末次间冰期终止点的确定

当前在全球气候变化预测研究中 ,洞穴石笋的高分辨定年和碳、氧同位素组成的变化规律研究 ,为这个领域的突破和填补空白做出了巨大贡献。通过对贵州都匀七星洞 1号石笋进行 11件TIMS U系测年和 79件碳、氧同位素分析 ,获得了距今 10 9.0 0kaB .P .至 6 5 .90kaB .P .的高分辨率古气候记录。石笋在大于 10 9.0 0kaB .P .前开始生长 ,于 6 5 .90kaB .P .后停止生长 ,平均沉积速率为 4 .5 8mm/ 10 0a,属晚更新世的沉积产物。七星洞 1号石笋剖面的研究揭示 ,其年龄和δ18O同位素的变化 ,可以与深海岩芯氧同位素记录所揭示的第五阶段中的 5a、5b、5c和第四阶段的早期进行对比。它的碳、氧同位素记录揭示 ,在 10 9.0～ 10 2 .5kaB .P .和 86 .6～ 78.92kaB .P .时段 ,显示受东亚夏季风影响较强 ,气温升高 ,降水增多 ,δ18O偏负 ,表现为温暖湿润的气候环境。在 10 2 .5～ 86 .6kaB .P .时段 ,显示受东亚夏季风影响强度减弱 ,受东亚冬季风影响强度增加 ,气温降低 ,大气降水减少 ,δ18O稍趋向偏正 ,表现为冷凉半湿润—温凉湿润的气候环境 ;而在 78.92～ 6 5 .6kaB .P .时段 ,显示东亚冬季风强盛和受西北风影响较强 ,海表温度下降 ,大气温度降低 ,降水量较少 ,δ18O偏重 ,δ13 C偏正 (C4植物占 95 % ) 。

辽河平原5～10a的气候影响诊断预测试验

利用沈阳地区 50a资料 ,以旱涝灾害过程为预测对象 ,提出了用气候灾害过程相关的异常现象演变规律 ,进行气候诊断分析 ,可提前预测辽河平原 5～ 1 0a的气候年景和气候灾害年。对 2 0世纪 90年代辽河平原的2次严重灾害过程均提前预测出来 ,并对未来 1

气候变化与海洋生物多样性关系研究进展

气候变化与生物多样性的关系研究已经成为落实《生物多样性公约》的焦点议题,海洋生物多样性是生物多样性的重要组成部分,研究气候变化与海洋生物多样性的关系对于保护全球生物多样性具有重要意义。作者分析讨论了气候变化与太平洋鲱鱼(Clupea pallasi)等海洋生物目标物种、东海浮游动物等海洋生物群落结构、珊瑚礁和红树林等敏感海洋生态系统的关系以及动态生物气候封闭式模型预测方面的研究进展,提出了我国在该领域需要深入研究的问题和对策,包括重视目标物种研究、加强生物区系和群落结构研究、加大敏感海洋生态系统研究、开展长时间尺度海洋生物多样性研究、开展预测研究和基于地理信息系统的气候变化与海洋生物多样性关系研究等。

中国碳排放峰值及其倒逼机制研究的发展动态

为了进一步应对气候变化,中国提出到2030年左右实现二氧化碳排放达到峰值。碳排放峰值目标的设定,必然会对经济转型产生一种倒逼机制。倒逼机制是中国在改革开放实践中成功实施的一种逆向运作的经济治理机制。探索碳排放峰值目标的倒逼机制的基本理论问题,研究如何在实践中完善和运用这种新型倒逼机制,对中国经济的低碳转型和可持续发展具有重要的理论参考价值。本文按照从"碳排放历史研究"到"碳排放趋势预测",从"峰值实现路径研究"到"峰值约束研究"的逻辑顺序,综述了近年来国内外有关中国碳排放及其峰值的研究现状和发展动态,并回顾了有关倒逼机制的基础理论研究和特定案例研究。结果表明:首先,现有研究都以顺向思维方式,预测碳排放峰值和研究实现峰值的路径,但没有文献以逆向思维方式,揭示峰值目标的倒逼机制;其次,现有研究虽然也提出了碳排放峰值的倒逼机制,但该倒逼机制目前在理论上仍处于一个黑箱之中,还没有文献曾试图打开这个黑箱,以揭示该机制的基本特征和运行机制;最后,现有研究也模拟了碳排放峰值目标约束对经济产生的影响,但没有系统性地研究在碳排放峰值目标倒逼机制下的经济转型路径,也没有深入探索在转型过程中采取的一系列政策措施的减排绩效和经济影响。基于该领域的现有成果和发展动态,本文提出了可进一步拓展的研究方向:要以逆向思维方式,从可持续发展的长期战略视角,在理论上解析和构建碳排放峰值目标的倒逼机制,系统性地研究在这种倒逼机制下的经济转型路径,并通过构建大型政策评估模型,量化评估在转型过程中采取的一系列政策措施的减排绩效和经济影响。

基于VAR模型简化预测气候

地球的吸热散热及海平面温度是气候变化重要因素,为建立刻画气候变化的模型,首先采用地球表面平均温度、海洋表面温度、降水量以及CO_(2)浓度作为模型的内生变量。考虑影响气候的因素之间也相互影响,选择不事先约束条件的VAR模型来分析气候变化,同时将月份作为外生变量用以去除时间上的趋势。模型经最优滞后阶数检验后选定滞后5阶,且模型通过了稳定经检验。然后经Granger因果检验和方差分解后,得出各变量普遍能Granger引起其他变量和各结构冲击对内生变量变化的贡献度。最后在此模型基础上,利用选取数据预测未来25年的气候变化,经预测在2045年全球表面温度约将上涨0.24℃,全球海平面温度约将上涨2.09℃,降水量约将上涨1.90mm,CO_(2)浓度约将上涨4.27ppm。

Climate Change over China in the 21st Century as Simulated by BCC_CSM1.1-RegCM4.0

Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.This is based on a period of transient simulations from 1950 to2099,with a grid spacing of 50 km.The present paper focuses on the annual mean temperature and precipitation in China over this period,with emphasis on their future changes.Validation of model performance reveals marked improvement of the RegCM4.0 model in reproducing present day temperature and precipitation relative to the driving BCC_CSM1.1 model.Significant warming is simulated by both BCC_CSM1.1 and RegCM4.0,however,spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the simulations.The high emission scenario RCP8.5 results in greater warming compared to RCP4.5.The two models project different precipitation changes,characterized by a general increase in the BCC_CSM1.1,and broader areas with decrease in the RegCM4.0 simulations.

Analyzing and Forecasting Climate Change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85℃/10yr if emission concentration of CO2 remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO2 decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65℃/10yr, 0.46℃/10yr and 0.27℃/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.

On assessing haze attribution and control measures in China

This paper analyzes the air pollution situation in China,particularly the severe intensifying tendency in central North China.Five major comments on the air pollution issue in China are proposed,emphasizing the scientific understanding on the mechanisms of air pollution formation processes,the interannual variability,the relative roles of climate change and pollutant emissions,the interaction between climate change and atmospheric chemical processes,and the seasonal prediction of air pollution.The viewpoints have significance for air pollution management in China and around the world.

Projected Climate Change in the Northwestern Arid Regions of China: An Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dy- namical downscaling simulations： the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0 （RegCM4） forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 （BCC_CSMI.1）; the Hadley Centre Global En- vironmental Model version 3 regional climate model （HadGEM3-RA） forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean cou- pled HadGEM version 2 （HadGEM2-AO）; and the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model （NorESM1-M）. Model validation indicated that the mul- timodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Path- ways scenarios （RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively） in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario, Precipitation shows a signifi- cant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCPS.5; but in summer, precipitation is pro- jected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.

Prediction of China's Submerged Coastal Areas by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 （IPCC, 2001）, and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.

About A New Complex Method of Climates Reconstruction and Forecasting of Climate Changes in the Future

This paper deals with a new integrated method of reconstruction and forecasting of climatic changes in future. The method is based on proxy data pollen-spore analysis method, 14C analysis method, nowadays meteorological data, and data about of solar activity expressed in numbers of W （Wolf）. Here we present the results of investigation of sediments of the 2nd Fomich River terrace, Taymyr Peninsula, Russia. The formation of the peat bog started 10500 ± 140 years BP and continued during the entire Holocene. The pollen analysis of the sediment samples of the 2nd Fomich River terrace and the analysis of surface samples from a larch forest, typical of this region, reveals two phytochrones： both climatically preconditioned--tundra phytochrone （I1-4） and forest phytochrone （Ⅱ1-4）. The techniques of reconstruction and forecasting of basic elements of climate are presented and discussed in details.

Sensitivity of Climate Changes to CO_2 Emissions in China

In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models project a robust response in changes of mean and climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of a 1% CO2 increase per year, surface temperature in China is projected to increase more rapidly than the global average, and the model ensemble projects more precipitation （2.2%/℃）. Responses in changes of climate extremes are generally much stronger than that of climate means. The majority of models project a consistent re- sponse, with more warm events but fewer cold events in China due to CO2 warming. For example, the ensemble mean indicates a high positive sensitivity for increasing summer days （12.4%/℃） and tropical nights （26.0%/℃）, but a negative sensitivity for decreasing frost days （-4.7%/℃） and ice days （-7.0%/℃）. Further analyses indicate that precipitation in China is likely to become more extreme, featuring a high positive sensitivity. The sensitivity is high （2.4%/℃） for heavy precipitation days （〉 10 mm d l） and increases dramatically （5.3%/℃） for very heavy precipitation days （〉 20 mm d-1）, as well as for precipitation amounts on very wet days （10.8%/℃） and extremely wet days （22.0%/℃）. Thus, it is concluded that the more extreme precipitation events generally show higher sensitivity to CO2 warming. Additionally, southern China is projected to experience an increased risk of drought and flood occurrence, while an increased risk of flood but a decreased risk of drought is likely in other regions of China.

Quality Control and Analysis of Global Gauge-Based Daily Precipitation Dataset from 1980 to 2009

A series of quality control(QC) procedures were performed on a gauge-based global daily precipitation dataset from the Global Telecommunication System(GTS) for the period 1980-2009.A new global daily precipitation(NGDP) dataset was constructed by applying those QC procedures to eliminate erroneous records.The NGDP dataset was evaluated using the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP) precipitation datasets.The results showed that the frequency distribution and spatial distribution pattern of NGDP had a nice match with those from the CMAP and GPCP datasets.The global mean correlation coefficients with the CMAP and GPCP data increased from 0.24 for original GTS precipitation data to about 0.70 for NGDP data.Correspondingly,the root mean square errors(RMSE) decreased from 12 mm per day to 1 mm per day.The interannual variabilities of NGDP monthly precipitation are consistent with the CMAP and GPCP datasets in Asia.Meanwhile,the seasonal variabilities for most land areas on the Earth of NGDP dataset are also consistent with the CMAP and GPCP precipitation products.

Global Research Trends Related to CO_2 Emissions and Their Enlightenment to China

Given the growing awareness of the likely catastrophic impacts of climate change and close association of climate change with global emissions of greenhouse gases （of which carbon dioxide is more prominent） , considerable research efforts have been devoted to the analysis of carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions and its relationship to sustainable development. Now GHG reduction programs have been coming into effect in many developed coun- tries that have more responsibility for historical CO2 emissions, and the studies have become mature. First, the GHG emissions accounting system is more all-inclusive and the methods are more rational with the effort of IPCC from 1995 and all other research- ers related. Second, the responsibility allocation is more rational and fair. Along with the clarity of ＂carbon transfer＂ and ＂carbon leakage＂, the perspective and methodology for allocating regional COz emissions responsibility is turning from production base to consumption base. Third, the decomposition method has become more mature and more complex. For example, the decomposition formulas are including KAYA expression and input-output expres- sion and the decomposition techniques are developed from index analysis to simple average divisia and then adaptive-weighting divisia. Fourth, projection models have become more integrated and long-term. The top-down model and bottom-up model are both inter-embedded and synergetic. Trends above give some advice for the research on CO2 in China, such as emissions factors database construction, deeper-going research on emissions responsibility and structure analysis, promotion of modeling technology and technology-environment database.

Revitalizing and Preparing Drainage Operation and Maintenance to Anticipate Climate Change in Semarang Heritage City

Semarang urban coastal areas are experiencing tidal flood. In addition, land subsidence of 5 to 10 centimetres per year is taking place. The climate change phenomenon provokes land areas that are lower than sea water level from time to time. This makes the situation with respect to flooding increasingly risky. Semarang Old City （heritage） as part of principal Semarang area is suffering also from regular flooding and pollution that hamper the revitalisation of the old city. These areas used to be productive lands, but flooding make the existing public infrastructure does no longer function, and residential areas have changed into unhealthy slams. To overcome these problems, the Government of Semarang chooses a polder drainage system to address the flooding in Semarang. In the framework of the cooperation between Indonesia and the Netherlands, these activities consist of research and workshops on Urban Heritage. The scope consists basically of five components： experiences with urban drainage and flood protection in Semarang with a focus on Semarang Old City, field visit to relevant places with respect to urban drainage and flood protection of Semarang Old City, lectures on the relevant aspects of urban drainage and flood protection, exercises to get an insight in the processes that can take place under normal and extreme conditions, formulation of a preliminary plan to improve the situation with respect to urban drainage and flood protection of Semarang Old City. In this paper, the various relevant points are described, such as scenarios analysis as well as the findings and recommendations for improvement of the urban drainage system and flood protection of Semarang Heritage City.

Climate Change Projections for Mediterranean Region with Focus over Alpine Region and Italy

Climate change projections over the Mediterranean region have been elaborated by using the outputs of ten ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations with an horizontal resolution of 25 km under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The analysis concerns some surface atmospheric variables： mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation and wind speed. At first, model validations have been performed by comparing model results with E-OBS and ERA-Interim data in reproducing the last decades over some Italian sub-areas and the Alpine region. In spite of the considerable spread in the models＇ performances to represent the reference climate, a multi-model reconstruction has been computed and some seasonal climate change projections have been elaborated. About the mean climate changes, the more significant signals expected by 2050 are a maximum warming （about 2 ~C） and maximum drying （about 20%） in the southern Europe in summer. Moreover, the results indicate an increasing risk for some severe weather conditions： more days of extremely high temperature in summer over the whole area, a greater occurrence of flooding and storms over coasts during spring and autumn seasons and a more serious wet-snow event over Alpine region in winter. No significant signals of wind changes have been detected.

Impact of Climate Change on Regional Hydroclimate Projection in Peninsular Malaysia

For the assessment of the impact of future climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia, it is necessary to downscale the climate change simulations of a coarse scale General Circulation Model to the region of Peninsular Malaysia at fine grid resolution. This paper presents a desktop review of the state of climate change parameters, namely rainfall and river flow over the Peninsular Malaysia for the 2041-2050 projection period. Analysis of the results from the models shows there will be a substantial increase in mean monthly precipitation over the North East Coastal region from historical 259.5 mm to 281.5 mm, from 289.0 mm to 299.0 mm and 221.8 mm to 239.5 mm over Terengganu and Kelantan, respectively. Meanwhile, for river flow projection, it will be an expected increase in interannual and intraseasonal variability with increased hydrologic extremes （higher high flows, and lower low flows） at Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu, and Kedah watersheds in the future.