气候变迁对中国东北森林影响的初步研究

研究了气候变迁对中国东北森林的影响，提出气候变迁与东北森林生态系统的长、中、短期响应的初步估计．（１）关于ＣＯ２浓度的监测．长白山地区的ＣＯ２浓度处于与全球平均一致的增长中，年均增长１．７×１０－６，并呈季节性周期变化．（２）关于瞬时响应．多因子多组合光合实验表明，在常见温度范围内，ＣＯ２浓度加倍可使各建群树种的净光合速率增加，短期内可使树木生产力提高５０％～７５％；主要树种在最适温区，温度增减５℃造成的光合速率变化小于３０％．（３）关于中时间尺度响应．１０００多个树木年轮样条与相应气候条件对应分析表明，东北主要树木生长与短时段升温一般没有显著相关，但不可逆的气候变暖或变冷则与树木生长密切相关．在特定区域，气候变暖１℃可使树木年轮宽增加约５０％．（４）关于森林分布的远景．运用ＫＩＲＡ的温暖指数分析可知，２℃增温可使现有森林各分布带普遍上移３００ｍ．（５）森林生态系统的生长演替ＰＡＴＣＨ动态模拟表明：各森林分布带的生产力（中时间尺度以上）的提高程度大不相同，山上部和山中部森林的生产力提高明显，森林树种组成（长时间尺度）发生很大变化．温带阔叶红松林将以落叶阔叶树占优势地位，兴安落叶松林将为蒙古栎林替代．由于可能?

The ocean response to climate change guides both adaptation and mitigation efforts

The ocean’s thermal inertia is a major contributor to irreversible ocean changes exceeding time scales that matter to human society.This fact is a challenge to societies as they prepare for the consequences of climate change,especially with respect to the ocean.Here the authors review the requirements for human actions from the ocean’s perspective.In the near term(∼2030),goals such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)will be critical.Over longer times(∼2050–2060 and beyond),global carbon neutrality targets may be met as countries continue to work toward reducing emissions.Both adaptation and mitigation plans need to be fully implemented in the interim,and the Global Ocean Observation System should be sustained so that changes can be continuously monitored.In the longer-term(after∼2060),slow emerging changes such as deep ocean warming and sea level rise are committed to continue even in the scenario where net zero emissions are reached.Thus,climate actions have to extend to time scales of hundreds of years.At these time scales,preparation for“high impact,low probability”risks—such as an abrupt showdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,ecosystem change,or irreversible ice sheet loss—should be fully integrated into long-term planning.

Attribution of the Present-Day Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing to Anthropogenic Emission Sectors

In this study,a general circulation model coupled with a gas-phase module and an aerosol chemistry module was employed to investigate the impacts of anthropogenic emission sectors on aerosol direct radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere （TOA） in the present-day climate.The predictions were based on the emission inventories developed in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）.Six emission sectors-agriculture,open biomass burning,domestic activities,industry,energy generation,and transport-were considered,with a special focus on nitrate aerosol that shows large uncertainties in current models.The results show that the energy sector accounts for the largest contribution （-222 mW m-2） to global aerosol radiative forcing,with substantial negative forcing from sulfate.Inclusion of nitrate results in the transport sector yielding a global nitrate radiative forcing of-92 mW rm-2 and an internally mixed aerosol radiative forcing of-85 mW m-2,which is opposite to the positive radiative forcing predicted in the past,indicating that the transport emissions could not be a potential control target to counteract climate warming as expected before.The maximum change in nitrate burden is found to be associated with agricultural emissions,which accounts for about 75％ of global ammonia gas （NH3） emissions.Agricultural emissions account for global nitrate radiative forcing of-186 mW m-2 and internally mixed aerosols direct radiative forcing of-149 mW m-2.Such agricultural radiative forcing exceeds the radiative forcing of the industrial sector and is responsible for a large portion of negative radiative forcing over the Northern Hemisphere.

Green Product Purchase Behaviour： Relevance for Muslims

Recent climate change phenomenon and other prevailing environmental problems have marked a need for human beings to rethinking their way of life, particularly in their relationship with the environment. In Islam, human beings are made responsible at his/her best efforts in preserving the environment including practising pro-environmental behaviour. Due to strong pressures by Western public movements since past decades, the emergence of green products in marketplace has provided an alternative and better way of consumption in reducing adverse environmental impacts. However, little attention has been paid on relating green product purchase behaviour with Islamic teachings. Therefore, the paper discusses the role of green products purchase behaviours in reducing adverse environmental impacts and its relationship with Islamic teachings as mentioned in AI-Quran and As-Sunnah. Besides, the importance of green product knowledge in determining green product purchase behaviour is also discussed. Implications from the study would provide some insights on links between green product purchase behaviours and Islamic teachings as well as improving understanding on the influence of knowledge on pro-environmental behaviours both in empirical manner and as being outlined in Islam.

Estonia： The Prospects of Nuclear Energy

This paper details the prospects for a civil nuclear power station in Estonia. Due to its climate change commitments, Estonia needs a new source of electricity provision. There is little academic literature on Estonia, and this research builds upon previous work but is more detailed in its analysis with primary data included in the form of interviews with Estonian energy industry experts. All the conditions that have led to nuclear energy being considered as an option are assessed, along with why it represents the most strategic path for Estonia in terms of electricity provision. Through the interview analysis a framework is established and advanced for the successful initiation of a national nuclear power plant project. This research is therefore of high value for small EU countries who intend to consider nuclear energy as an option in their energy mix or have more advanced plans to develop a nuclear program.

Impact of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China

Associated with global warming, climate extremes such as extreme temperature will significantly increase. Understanding how climate change will impact the airflights is important to the planning of future flight operations. In this study, the impacts of 1.5 and 2 degree's global warming on the aircraft takeoff performance in China are investigated using a unique climate projection data from an international collaboration project named HAPPI. It is found that the mean summer daily maximum temperature, which is a major factor that affects the flight through changing the aircraft's takeoff weight, will increase significantly with magnitude less than 1.5℃ over most parts of China except for the Tibetan Plateau. The half a degree additional global warming will lead to higher extreme temperature in the arid and semi-arid western China, the Tibetan Plateau and the northeastern China, while the change in eastern China is weak. Five airports including Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming, Lasa and Urumqi will see ～1.0°-2.0℃(1.4°-3.0℃) higher daily maximum temperature under 1.5℃(2.0℃) scenario. The half-degree additional warming will lead to a shift toward higher extreme temperature in these five sites. For both1.5° and 2.0℃ scenarios, the number of weight-restriction days will increase significantly at 3 airports including Beijing, Shanghai, and Lasa. Urumqi will witness an increase of weight-restriction days only in 2.0℃ future.

Climate change, migration, and regional administrative reform： A case study of Xinjiang in the middle Qing Dynasty(1760–1884)

Based on historical records of extreme climate events and population densities in Gansu and Shaanxi, and information on climate change, populations, new cultivated cropland, and administrative system reform in Xinjiang, this study explores the interaction between climate change, migration, and regional administrative reform in the middle Qing Dynasty. The results showed that the surge in population migration from Gansu and Shaanxi to Xinjiang during 1760–1820 was caused by extreme climate events(droughts and floods) and population pressure in Gansu and Shaanxi. During 1760–1880, the climate in Xinjiang was unusually cold and humid, which was highly conducive to abundant regional water resources. This provided favorable conditions for farmland irrigation and further promoted agricultural cultivation, population growth, and town development within this region. Additionally,the interactions between climate change and the above-mentioned social factors, which acted as driving forces, spurred the reform in the administrative system of Xinjiang whereby the military administration system was transformed to a province administration system. Through this reform, the Qing government managed to restore peace and stability in Xinjiang. This study contributes to a better understanding of climate-related population migration and enhances our knowledge of the impact-response chain between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies, especially in regional administrative reform.

Dengue: what it is and why there is more

In 2014, China experienced the worst outbreak of dengue fever in the last decade with over 40,000 dengue cases including six deaths by the end of October. As one of the ＂neglected＂ tropical diseases, dengue is affecting substantially increasing number of people and proportion of global population due to factors including globalization, human settlement, and possibly climate change. Here, the authors summarized the most recent data about dengue outbreaks in China and reviewed the global trend of dengue epidemiology. Future directions for dengue surveillance, control and prevention are also introduced.

Responding to Global Warming: Mitigation Policies and Actions of Stakeholders in China's Tourism Industry

China’s tourism industry has witnessed rapid progress in recent years, and is now an important part of global tourism in dealing with climate change. Within a framework of Pressure-State-Response(PSR), this paper focuses on the emission reduction pressure, carbon emission status, and responses of stakeholders in China’s tourism industry. Findings include: 1) The central government’s strategy and rapid growth of the industry scale exert rising pressure on China’s tourism to reduce carbon emissions. 2) Carbon emissions of China’s tourism account for 13%–14.6% of global tourism, and about 3% of China’s emissions overall. Chinese tourists’ per capita carbon emission is lower than half of the global level. 3) The Chinese government attaches great importance to energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. In the tourism industry, documents, standards and other regulative measures have been issued to ensure that business practitioners set up green operational and managerial systems. In the field of tourism transportation, China’s high-speed rail, new energy vehicles, and urban shared bicycles, have developed very rapidly in recent years, and they have effectively reduced the carbon emissions in traveling. Furthermore, this paper finds that Chinese tourists already have awareness and willingness for low-carbon tourism.

Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model

An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） expressed ＂substantial confidence＂ that near-term global warming would occur twice as fast as subsequent observation. Given rising CO2 concentration, few models predicted no wann- ing since 2001. Between the pre-final and published drafts of the Fifth Assessment Report, IPCC cut its near-term warming projection substantially, substituting ＂expert assessment＂ for models＇ near-term predictions. Yet its long-range predictions remain unaltered. The model indi- cates that IPCC＇s reduction of the feedback sum from 1.9 to 1.5 W m^-2 K^-1 mandates a reduction from 3.2 to 2.2 K in its central climate-sensitivity estimate; that, since feed- backs are likely to be net-negative, a better estimate is 1.0 K; that there is no unrealized global warming in the pipeline; that global warming this century will be 〈1 K;and that combustion of all recoverable fossil fuels will cause 〈2.2 K global warming to equilibrium. Resolving the discrepancies between the methodology adopted by IPCC in its Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports that are highlighted in the present paper is vital. Once those dis- crepancies are taken into account, the impact of anthro- pogenic global warming over the next century, and even as far as equilibrium many millennia hence, may be no more than one-third to one-half of IPCC＇s current projections.

Moose at their bioclimatic edge alter their behavior based on weather, landscape, and predators

Populations inhabiting the bioclimatic edges of a species＇ geographic range face an increasing amount of stress from alterations to their environment associated with climate change. Moose Alces alces are large-bodied ungulates that are sensitive to heat stress and have exhibited population declines and range contractions along their southern geographic extent. Using a hidden Markov model to analyze movement and accelerometer data, we assigned behaviors （rest, forage, or travel） to all locations of global positioning system-collared moose （n = 13, moose-years = 19） living near the southern edge of the species＇ range in and around Voyageurs National Park, MN, USA. We assessed how moose behavior changed relative to weather, landscape, and the presence of predators. Moose sig- nificantly reduced travel and increased resting behaviors at ambient temperatures as low as 15~C and 24~C during the spring and summer, respectively. In general, moose behavior changed season- ally in association with distance to lakes and ponds. Moose used wetlands for travel throughout the year, rested in conifer forests, and foraged in shrublands. The influence of wolves Canis lupus varied among individual moose and season, but the largest influence was a reduction in travel during spring when near a wolf home range core, primarily by pregnant females. Our analysis goes beyond habitat selection to capture how moose alter their activities based on their environment. Our findings, along with climate change forecasts, suggest that moose in this area will be required to further alter their activity patterns and space use in order to find sufficient forage and avoid heat stress.