2014年9月22日,美国麻省理工学院＂全球变化科学和政策联合项目＂（MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change）发布题为《2014年能源与气候展望》（Energy and Climate Outlook 2014）的报告,使用自主开发的全球...2014年9月22日,美国麻省理工学院＂全球变化科学和政策联合项目＂（MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change）发布题为《2014年能源与气候展望》（Energy and Climate Outlook 2014）的报告,使用自主开发的全球系统综合模型（IGSM）框架。展开更多
这种方案有价值的特征之一是,一有所选站点的观测值,马上就可以作出预报。不象数值动力天气预报漠式那样需要3个多小时去收集和分析数据,把模式置于初始状态,然后才能作出预报。此外,象 MOS 一类可用的统计方法也需要首先完成数值天气...这种方案有价值的特征之一是,一有所选站点的观测值,马上就可以作出预报。不象数值动力天气预报漠式那样需要3个多小时去收集和分析数据,把模式置于初始状态,然后才能作出预报。此外,象 MOS 一类可用的统计方法也需要首先完成数值天气预报模式。人们已经指出,马尔柯夫(MarKov)展开更多
The Lima call for climate action adopted at the Lima Climate Conference on Climate Change specifies that the principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,including the principle of common bu...The Lima call for climate action adopted at the Lima Climate Conference on Climate Change specifies that the principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,including the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities,shall apply to the new climate agreement to be adopted at the Paris Conference on Climate Change in 2015.Decisions on other heavily debated items,including the intended nationally determined contributions,were also made at the Lima Conference.The significant achievements in Lima and the positive momentum have laid a solid foundation for the adoption of a new climate agreement in the Paris Climate Conference.Four measures are proposed for China to meet great challenges in addressing climate change beyond 2020,including early formulation and issuance of a climate change law,establishment of a greenhouse gas emission trading scheme,promotion of advanced climate technology investments,and further international engagement for climate change.展开更多
Reconstructing past climate is beneficial for researchers to understand the mechanism of past climate change, recognize the context of modern climate change and predict scenarios of future climate change. Paleoclimate...Reconstructing past climate is beneficial for researchers to understand the mechanism of past climate change, recognize the context of modern climate change and predict scenarios of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation(PDA), which was first introduced in 2000, is a promising approach and a significant issue in the context of past climate research. PDA has the same theoretical basis as the traditional data assimilation(DA) employed in the fields of atmosphere science, ocean science and land surface science. The main aim of PDA is to optimally estimate past climate states that are both consistent with the climate signal recorded in proxy and the dynamic understanding of the climate system through combining the physical laws and dynamic mechanisms of climate systems represented by climate models with climate signals recorded in proxies(e.g., tree rings, ice cores). After investigating the research status and latest advances of PDA abroad, in this paper, the background, concept and methodology of PAD are briefly introduced. Several special aspects and the development history of PAD are systematically summarized. The theoretical basis and typical cases associated with three frequently-used PAD methods(e.g., nudging, particle filter and ensemble square root filter) are analyzed and demonstrated. Finally, some underlying problems in current studies and key prospects in future research related to PDA are proposed to provide valuable thoughts on and a scientific basis for PDA research.展开更多
Global warming, as a result of an increase in the mean temperature of the planet, might lead to catastrophic events for humanity. This temperature increase is mainly the result of an increase in the atmospheric greenh...Global warming, as a result of an increase in the mean temperature of the planet, might lead to catastrophic events for humanity. This temperature increase is mainly the result of an increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gases （GHG） concentration. Water vapor, carbon dioxide （CO2）, methane （CH4） and nitrous oxide （N20） are the most important GHG, and human activities, such as industry, livestock and agriculture, contribute to the production of these gases. Methane, at an atmospheric concentration of 1.7 gmol tool-1 currently, is responsible for 16% of the global warming due to its relatively high global warming potential. Soils play an important role in the CH4 cycle as methanotrophy （oxidation of CH4） and methanogenesis （production of CH4） take place in them. Understanding methanogenesis and methanotrophy is essential to establish new agriculture techniques and industrial processes that contribute to a better balance of GHG. The current knowledge of methanogenesis and methanotrophy in soils, anaerobic CH4 oxidation and methanotrophy in extreme environments is also discussed.展开更多
Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in groun...Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in ground and satellite measurements have made the hydrometeorological information readily available, and advances in information technology have facilitated the data analysis in a real-time manner. New progress in climate research and modeling has enabled the prediction of seasonal climate with reasonable accuracy and increased resolution. These emerging techniques and advances have enabled more timely acquisition of accurate hydrological fluxes and status, and earlier warning of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper gives current state-of-the-art understanding of the uncertainties in hydrological monitoring and forecasting, reviews the efforts and progress in operational hydrological monitoring system assisted by observations from various sources and experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting, and briefly introduces the current monitoring and forecasting practices in China. The grand challenges and perspectives for the near future are also discussed, including acquiring and extracting reliable information for monitoring and forecasting, predicting realistic hydrological fluxes and states in the river basin being significantly altered by human activity, and filling the gap between numerical models and the end user. We highlight the importance of understanding the needs of the operational water management and the priority to transfer research knowledge to decision-makers.展开更多
文摘2014年9月22日,美国麻省理工学院＂全球变化科学和政策联合项目＂（MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change）发布题为《2014年能源与气候展望》（Energy and Climate Outlook 2014）的报告,使用自主开发的全球系统综合模型（IGSM）框架。
文摘The Lima call for climate action adopted at the Lima Climate Conference on Climate Change specifies that the principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,including the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities,shall apply to the new climate agreement to be adopted at the Paris Conference on Climate Change in 2015.Decisions on other heavily debated items,including the intended nationally determined contributions,were also made at the Lima Conference.The significant achievements in Lima and the positive momentum have laid a solid foundation for the adoption of a new climate agreement in the Paris Climate Conference.Four measures are proposed for China to meet great challenges in addressing climate change beyond 2020,including early formulation and issuance of a climate change law,establishment of a greenhouse gas emission trading scheme,promotion of advanced climate technology investments,and further international engagement for climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91425303, 91225302)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Interdisciplinary Innovation Team Project
文摘Reconstructing past climate is beneficial for researchers to understand the mechanism of past climate change, recognize the context of modern climate change and predict scenarios of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation(PDA), which was first introduced in 2000, is a promising approach and a significant issue in the context of past climate research. PDA has the same theoretical basis as the traditional data assimilation(DA) employed in the fields of atmosphere science, ocean science and land surface science. The main aim of PDA is to optimally estimate past climate states that are both consistent with the climate signal recorded in proxy and the dynamic understanding of the climate system through combining the physical laws and dynamic mechanisms of climate systems represented by climate models with climate signals recorded in proxies(e.g., tree rings, ice cores). After investigating the research status and latest advances of PDA abroad, in this paper, the background, concept and methodology of PAD are briefly introduced. Several special aspects and the development history of PAD are systematically summarized. The theoretical basis and typical cases associated with three frequently-used PAD methods(e.g., nudging, particle filter and ensemble square root filter) are analyzed and demonstrated. Finally, some underlying problems in current studies and key prospects in future research related to PDA are proposed to provide valuable thoughts on and a scientific basis for PDA research.
基金Supported by the Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del IPN,Mexico and the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología,Mexico(Nos.153216,232468 and 245119)
文摘Global warming, as a result of an increase in the mean temperature of the planet, might lead to catastrophic events for humanity. This temperature increase is mainly the result of an increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gases （GHG） concentration. Water vapor, carbon dioxide （CO2）, methane （CH4） and nitrous oxide （N20） are the most important GHG, and human activities, such as industry, livestock and agriculture, contribute to the production of these gases. Methane, at an atmospheric concentration of 1.7 gmol tool-1 currently, is responsible for 16% of the global warming due to its relatively high global warming potential. Soils play an important role in the CH4 cycle as methanotrophy （oxidation of CH4） and methanogenesis （production of CH4） take place in them. Understanding methanogenesis and methanotrophy is essential to establish new agriculture techniques and industrial processes that contribute to a better balance of GHG. The current knowledge of methanogenesis and methanotrophy in soils, anaerobic CH4 oxidation and methanotrophy in extreme environments is also discussed.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41425002National Basic Research Program of China,No.2012CB955403+2 种基金National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in ChinaChina Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(Major projects),No.GYHY201506001-7The Beijing Science and Technology Plan Project,No.Z141100003614052
文摘Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in ground and satellite measurements have made the hydrometeorological information readily available, and advances in information technology have facilitated the data analysis in a real-time manner. New progress in climate research and modeling has enabled the prediction of seasonal climate with reasonable accuracy and increased resolution. These emerging techniques and advances have enabled more timely acquisition of accurate hydrological fluxes and status, and earlier warning of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper gives current state-of-the-art understanding of the uncertainties in hydrological monitoring and forecasting, reviews the efforts and progress in operational hydrological monitoring system assisted by observations from various sources and experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting, and briefly introduces the current monitoring and forecasting practices in China. The grand challenges and perspectives for the near future are also discussed, including acquiring and extracting reliable information for monitoring and forecasting, predicting realistic hydrological fluxes and states in the river basin being significantly altered by human activity, and filling the gap between numerical models and the end user. We highlight the importance of understanding the needs of the operational water management and the priority to transfer research knowledge to decision-makers.
