Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） highlighted the complex linkages between climate change and water. The likely warmer climate induced by the climate change is set to alter hy...Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） highlighted the complex linkages between climate change and water. The likely warmer climate induced by the climate change is set to alter hydrological cycle and the shifting pattern of the rainfall would affect the spatial and temporal distribution of runoff, soil moisture, and surface and groundwater reserves. Therefore, there is an urgent need to assess the impacts of climate change on water and devise adaptation measures including management structures and processes by which one can deal with this challenge. The paper highlights with the global overview of climate change impacts on water in the arid region, supported and substantiated through scientific evidence drawn from IPCC reports and other relevant documents. This paper provides an overview of water resource management challenges including transboundary geopolitical concerns documented across the world and emphasizes the importance of an integrated framework for adaptive policy making. Further, it examines the viable water resource management options for various sectors and regions and showcases some of the international best practices in adaptation and mitigation. The paper also explains the complementary role of traditional knowledge in coping with climate change risks and uncertainties and the need for a balanced view in designing adaptation and mitigation strategies.展开更多
An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the Inter- governmenta...An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） expressed ＂substantial confidence＂ that near-term global warming would occur twice as fast as subsequent observation. Given rising CO2 concentration, few models predicted no wann- ing since 2001. Between the pre-final and published drafts of the Fifth Assessment Report, IPCC cut its near-term warming projection substantially, substituting ＂expert assessment＂ for models＇ near-term predictions. Yet its long-range predictions remain unaltered. The model indi- cates that IPCC＇s reduction of the feedback sum from 1.9 to 1.5 W m^-2 K^-1 mandates a reduction from 3.2 to 2.2 K in its central climate-sensitivity estimate; that, since feed- backs are likely to be net-negative, a better estimate is 1.0 K; that there is no unrealized global warming in the pipeline; that global warming this century will be 〈1 K;and that combustion of all recoverable fossil fuels will cause 〈2.2 K global warming to equilibrium. Resolving the discrepancies between the methodology adopted by IPCC in its Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports that are highlighted in the present paper is vital. Once those dis- crepancies are taken into account, the impact of anthro- pogenic global warming over the next century, and even as far as equilibrium many millennia hence, may be no more than one-third to one-half of IPCC＇s current projections.展开更多
文摘Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） highlighted the complex linkages between climate change and water. The likely warmer climate induced by the climate change is set to alter hydrological cycle and the shifting pattern of the rainfall would affect the spatial and temporal distribution of runoff, soil moisture, and surface and groundwater reserves. Therefore, there is an urgent need to assess the impacts of climate change on water and devise adaptation measures including management structures and processes by which one can deal with this challenge. The paper highlights with the global overview of climate change impacts on water in the arid region, supported and substantiated through scientific evidence drawn from IPCC reports and other relevant documents. This paper provides an overview of water resource management challenges including transboundary geopolitical concerns documented across the world and emphasizes the importance of an integrated framework for adaptive policy making. Further, it examines the viable water resource management options for various sectors and regions and showcases some of the international best practices in adaptation and mitigation. The paper also explains the complementary role of traditional knowledge in coping with climate change risks and uncertainties and the need for a balanced view in designing adaptation and mitigation strategies.
文摘An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） expressed ＂substantial confidence＂ that near-term global warming would occur twice as fast as subsequent observation. Given rising CO2 concentration, few models predicted no wann- ing since 2001. Between the pre-final and published drafts of the Fifth Assessment Report, IPCC cut its near-term warming projection substantially, substituting ＂expert assessment＂ for models＇ near-term predictions. Yet its long-range predictions remain unaltered. The model indi- cates that IPCC＇s reduction of the feedback sum from 1.9 to 1.5 W m^-2 K^-1 mandates a reduction from 3.2 to 2.2 K in its central climate-sensitivity estimate; that, since feed- backs are likely to be net-negative, a better estimate is 1.0 K; that there is no unrealized global warming in the pipeline; that global warming this century will be 〈1 K;and that combustion of all recoverable fossil fuels will cause 〈2.2 K global warming to equilibrium. Resolving the discrepancies between the methodology adopted by IPCC in its Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports that are highlighted in the present paper is vital. Once those dis- crepancies are taken into account, the impact of anthro- pogenic global warming over the next century, and even as far as equilibrium many millennia hence, may be no more than one-third to one-half of IPCC＇s current projections.
