Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tari...Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.展开更多
Accompanied by global climate change, the annual mean air temperature has experienced a strongly increasing trend in the western China, especially in Xinjiang. The Global Climate Model （GCM） provides an efficient an...Accompanied by global climate change, the annual mean air temperature has experienced a strongly increasing trend in the western China, especially in Xinjiang. The Global Climate Model （GCM） provides an efficient and direct method to assess the process of global climate change and project future climate driven by various factors, especially human activity. Since GCMs＇ low spatial resolution cannot capture the characteristics of local climate change due to the land surface＇s complexity, downscaling methods, including Regional Climate Model （RCM）, Bias Correction method and Statistical Method, are proposed to process raw data from GCMs for local climate change assessment. This study applied the delta method, one of Bias Correction methods, to make horizonta! resolution of 24 GCMs models＇ monthly outputs into 0.5~C for analyzing Xinjiang＇s future climate pattern under three IPCC SRES. A comparison between the results from downscaled dada and raw data from GCMs shows that downscaling methods can improve local climate changing feature in complex land surface and topography and to reduce the uncertainty of climate data generated from GCMs in Xinjiang. The results showed that scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 generated similar patterns and trends in annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation in the early 21st century with fluctuations in the middle of the 21st century. The annual mean air temperature will reach 10℃ 11.1℃ and 8.5℃ in A1B, A2 and B1 by the end of the 2Pt century, respectively, while the annual precipitation during the projection period will experience an increasing trend with a little fluctuation. During 2020 and 2070, the annual temperature in A1B scenario is greater than the other scenarios on regional average. The annual precipitation in the A1B scenario is also greater than other scenarios during 2020 and 2040 on regional average. However, there exists a large uncertainty within different SRES with an range of 6℃ in annual temperature and about 200 mm in annual precipitation. Regionally, annual temperature increases less in the middle Tianshan Mountains, Yili River Basin, the Southern Tianshan Mountains, and downstream of Tarim River than in the Junggar Basin, Pamirs and the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains by the late 21st century. In the western portion of southern Xinjiang, the annual precipitation shows a slightly decreasing trend, but a significant increasing trend was found in eastern Changji, Turpan, Hami and northern Kunlun-Altun Mountains.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No KZCX2-XB2-03,KZCX2-YW-127)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No 40671014)Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No B410)
文摘Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.
基金supported by the Natural Sciences Foundation of China (No. 40871027)the Project of State Key Basic R & D Program of China (973 Program, 2012CB956204)supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Funding
文摘Accompanied by global climate change, the annual mean air temperature has experienced a strongly increasing trend in the western China, especially in Xinjiang. The Global Climate Model （GCM） provides an efficient and direct method to assess the process of global climate change and project future climate driven by various factors, especially human activity. Since GCMs＇ low spatial resolution cannot capture the characteristics of local climate change due to the land surface＇s complexity, downscaling methods, including Regional Climate Model （RCM）, Bias Correction method and Statistical Method, are proposed to process raw data from GCMs for local climate change assessment. This study applied the delta method, one of Bias Correction methods, to make horizonta! resolution of 24 GCMs models＇ monthly outputs into 0.5~C for analyzing Xinjiang＇s future climate pattern under three IPCC SRES. A comparison between the results from downscaled dada and raw data from GCMs shows that downscaling methods can improve local climate changing feature in complex land surface and topography and to reduce the uncertainty of climate data generated from GCMs in Xinjiang. The results showed that scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 generated similar patterns and trends in annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation in the early 21st century with fluctuations in the middle of the 21st century. The annual mean air temperature will reach 10℃ 11.1℃ and 8.5℃ in A1B, A2 and B1 by the end of the 2Pt century, respectively, while the annual precipitation during the projection period will experience an increasing trend with a little fluctuation. During 2020 and 2070, the annual temperature in A1B scenario is greater than the other scenarios on regional average. The annual precipitation in the A1B scenario is also greater than other scenarios during 2020 and 2040 on regional average. However, there exists a large uncertainty within different SRES with an range of 6℃ in annual temperature and about 200 mm in annual precipitation. Regionally, annual temperature increases less in the middle Tianshan Mountains, Yili River Basin, the Southern Tianshan Mountains, and downstream of Tarim River than in the Junggar Basin, Pamirs and the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains by the late 21st century. In the western portion of southern Xinjiang, the annual precipitation shows a slightly decreasing trend, but a significant increasing trend was found in eastern Changji, Turpan, Hami and northern Kunlun-Altun Mountains.
