基于温特斯法的夏季气温预测模型建立及应用

介绍了温特斯法的基本理论及 3个平滑方程的递推公式、初始值公式和预测模型公式 ,并依据其理论 ,采用VB 6 .0编程技术 ,设计了预测模型软件 ;同时 ,将夏季 6、7、8月的月平均气温看作具有随机性、线性、季节性变化的时间序列 ,利用商丘、民权、柘城、永城 4个代表站 1 96 1～ 1 999年夏季气温样本资料 ,建立了预测模型。对 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 2年夏季气温试报结果为 ,平均预测准确率 92 % ,其中 7月份 1 0 0 % ,6月份 92 % ,8月份 83%。

基于慢特征分析的哈尔滨市气温预测研究

慢特征分析方法(Slow Feature Analysis,SFA)是从已知的非平稳时间序列中提取缓变信息的有效方法。本文首先通过Logistic非平稳时间序列模型对SFA方法提取慢特征信息的能力进行了检验,然后以哈尔滨市为黑龙江省代表站,对月气温距平序列进行慢特征信号提取及预测研究。结果表明:慢特征分析方法可以有效地提取哈尔滨市气温距平序列中的慢特征信号。提取的慢特征信号能够反映原序列的变化趋势、极值等信息。拟合和预测试验表明,与平稳性模型相比,引入SFA信号后的气温预测模型可以在一定程度上提高预测能力,改善预测效果。对近48个月独立样本预测也得到相同结论。

A Modified Peng-Robinson Equation State for Prediction of Gas Adsorption Isotherm

This research proposes a modified two-dimensional Peng-Robinson equation model to predict adsorption isotherm in adsorbate-adsorbent systems. The parameters of the proposed model are calculated by using the optimization of experimental data for the different single gas adsorption systems at various temperatures. The experimental adsorption equilibrium data of adsorbate-adsorbent systems was compared with the calculated results in our proposed model and the two-dimensional Hill-deBoer equation model. The proposed model as indicated in the results shows a better prediction of the experimental results compared with two others.

Assessing the Seasonal Predictability of Summer Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin with Multiple APCC Models

Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated in this paper on the basis of 23-year(1981-2003) retrospective forecasts by 10 climate models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction system.It is found that the summer rainfall variance in this basin is largely internal,which leads to lower rainfall predictability for most individual climate models.By dividing the 10 models into three categories according to their sea surface temperature(SST) boundary conditions including observed,predicted,and persistent SSTs,the MME deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River basin is investigated.It is shown that the MME is effective for increasing the current seasonal forecast skill.Further analysis shows that the MME averaged over predicted SST models has the highest rainfall prediction skill,which is closely related to model's capability in reproducing the observed dominant modes of the summer rainfall anomalies in Huaihe River basin.This result can be further ascribed to the fact that the predicted SST MME is the most effective model ensemble for capturing the relationship between the summer rainfall anomalies over Huaihe River basin and the SST anomalies(SSTAs) in equatorial oceans.

Research on software development of air temperature prediction in coal face

With ever-increasing depth of coal mine and the continuous improvement of mechanization, heat damage has become one of the major disasters in coal mine exploitation. Established the temperature prediction models suitable for different kinds of tunnels through analysis of the heat of shafts, roadways and working faces. The average annual air temperature prediction equation from the inlets of shafts to the working faces was derived. The formula was deduced using combine method of iteration and direct calculation. The method can improve the precision of air temperature prediction, so we could establish the whole pathway air temperature prediction model with high precision. Emphasizing on the effects of leakage air to air temperature of working face and using the ideology of the finite difference method and considering the differential equation of inlet and outlet at different stages, this method can significantly improve the accuracy of temperature prediction. Program development uses Visual Basic 6.0 Language, and the Origin software was used to fit the relevant data. The predicted results shows that the air temperature generally tends to rapidly increase in the air inlet, then changes slowly on working face, and finally increases sharply in air outlet in the condition of goaf air leakage. The condition is in general consistent with the air temperature change tendency of working face with U-type ventilation system. The software can provide reliable scientific basis for reasonable ventilation, cooling measures and management of coal mine thermal hazards.

Global Research Trends Related to CO_2 Emissions and Their Enlightenment to China

Given the growing awareness of the likely catastrophic impacts of climate change and close association of climate change with global emissions of greenhouse gases （of which carbon dioxide is more prominent） , considerable research efforts have been devoted to the analysis of carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions and its relationship to sustainable development. Now GHG reduction programs have been coming into effect in many developed coun- tries that have more responsibility for historical CO2 emissions, and the studies have become mature. First, the GHG emissions accounting system is more all-inclusive and the methods are more rational with the effort of IPCC from 1995 and all other research- ers related. Second, the responsibility allocation is more rational and fair. Along with the clarity of ＂carbon transfer＂ and ＂carbon leakage＂, the perspective and methodology for allocating regional COz emissions responsibility is turning from production base to consumption base. Third, the decomposition method has become more mature and more complex. For example, the decomposition formulas are including KAYA expression and input-output expres- sion and the decomposition techniques are developed from index analysis to simple average divisia and then adaptive-weighting divisia. Fourth, projection models have become more integrated and long-term. The top-down model and bottom-up model are both inter-embedded and synergetic. Trends above give some advice for the research on CO2 in China, such as emissions factors database construction, deeper-going research on emissions responsibility and structure analysis, promotion of modeling technology and technology-environment database.

An Observational and Modeling Study of Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Sandy in 2012

Around 30 October 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the New Jersey shoreline after its completion of extratropical transition and transformation into an extratropical cyclone. The strong gale induced a catastrophic storm surge, and caused 72 death and damage of more than $50 billion. In this paper, the evolutionary process and spatial structure of the Hurricane Sandy during its extratropical transition were investigated by using Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） version 3.3.1 modeling resuits and National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） Coupled Forecast System model version 2 reanalysis datasets （CFSv2）. It is found that during the upper-level trough interaction on 29 October, Sandy gradually fused with a pre-existing mid-latitude low-pressure system, and finished the re-intensification. WRF modeling results showed that the second peak occurred mainly due to the enhanced vertical motion, reduced vertical wind shear as well as the supplement of potential vorticity resulting from trough interaction over the southeast of Great Lakes. The cold continental air from the back of trough was encircled within the warm core system cyclonically, forming the characteristic of warm seclusion.

ENSO Variability Simulated by a Coupled General Circulation Model:ECHAM5/MPI-OM

The accurate simulation of the equatorial sea surlhce temperature （SST） variability is crucial for a proper representation or prediction of the El Nino-Southern Os- cillation （ENSO）. This paper describes the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute （MPI） forr meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model （CGCM）. A control simulation with pre-industrial greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as SST, is compared with observa- tions. Results from the 400-yr control simulation show that the model＇s ENSO variability is quite realistic in terms of structure, strength, and period. Also, two related features （the annual cycle of SST and the-phase locking of ENSO events）, which are significant in determining the model＇s performance of realistic ENSO prediction, are further validated to be well reproduced by the MPI cli mate model, which is an atmospheric model ECHAM5 （which fuses the EC tbr European Center and HAM for Hamburg） coupled to an MPI ocean model （MPI-OM）, ECHAMS/MPI-OM.

Performance Prediction of Structured Packing Column for Cryogenic Air Separation with Hybrid Model

A detailed investigation of a thermodynamic process in a structured packing distillation column is of great impor- tance in prediction of process efficiency. In order to keep the simplicity of an equilibrium stage model and the accu- racy of a non-equilibrium stage model, a hybrid model is developed to predict the structured packing column in cryogenic air separation. A general solution process for the equilibrium stage model is developed to solve the set of equations of the hybrid model, in which a separation efficiency function is introduced to obtain the resulting tri-diagonal matrix and its solution by the Thomas algorithm. As an example, the algorithm is applied to analyze an upper column of a cryogenic air separation plant with the capacity of 17000 m3·h-1. Rigorous simulations are conducted using Aspen RATEFRAC module to validate the approach. The temperature and composition distributions are in a good agreement with the two methods. The effects of inlet/outlet position and flow rate on the temperature and composition distributions in the column are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the hybrid model and the solution algorithms are effective in analvzin~ the distillation process for a a cryogenic structured packing column.

Diffusivity Models and Greenhouse Gases Fluxes from a Forest,Pasture,Grassland and Corn Field in Northern Hokkaido,Japan

Information on the most influential factors determining gas flux from soils is needed in predictive models for greenhouse gases emissions. We conducted an intensive soil and air sampling along a 2 000 m transect extending from a forest, pasture, grassland and corn field in Shizunai, Hokkaido （Japan）, measured CO2, CH4, N20 and NO fluxes and calculated soil bulk density （Pb）, air-filled porosity （fa） and total porosity （Ф）. Using diffusivity models based on either fa alone or on a combination of fa and 4, we predicted two pore space indices： the relative gas diffusion coefficient （Ds/Do） and the pore tortuosity factor （T）. The relationships between pore space indices （Ds/Do and T） and C02, CH4, N2O and NO fluxes were also studied. Results showed that the grassland had the highest Pb while fa and Ф were the highest in the forest. CO2, CH4, N20 and NO fluxes were the highest in the grassland while N20 dominated in the corn field. Few correlations existed between fa, Ф, Pb and gases fluxes while all models predicted that Ds/Do and T significantly correlated with CO2 and CH4 with correlation coefficient （r） ranging from 0.20 to 0.80. Overall, diffusivity models based on fa alone gave higher Ds/Do, lower τ, and higher R2 and better explained the relationship between pore space indices （Ds/Do and τ） and gases fluxes. Inclusion of Ds/Do and τ in predictive models will improve our understanding of the dynamics of greenhouse gas fluxes from soils. Ds/Do and τ can be easily obtained by measurements of soil air and water and existing diffusivity models.