桦甸市综合气象业务现状及完善措施

本文主要围绕吉林省桦甸市气象局综合气象业务现状,阐述了开展综合气象业务的重要性,并剖析了综合气象业务开展中存在的问题,最后提出了一些完善措施,以供同行人士参考借鉴。

巴基斯坦的气象业

1992年9月,巴基斯坦发生特大洪灾,损失巨大。乌尔都文《战斗报》的“战斗论坛”于10月邀请有关人士座谈,分析洪灾发生的原因。巴基斯坦气象局局长卡西姆·马立克在座谈会上介绍了巴基斯坦的气象事业。巴基斯坦气象局是联邦政府的一个机构,隶属于国防部航空部门。气象局主要由以下四个部门组成。一、各机场的气象观测站。其任务是向来往飞机提供气象情况,保证飞机安全起降。全国34个机场均建有此种观测站。二、洪水预报中心与环境中心,设在拉合尔。创建于1953年。

乳业气象保障服务研究——以江苏省气象服务中心为例

通过实地调查和问卷调查等方法 ,对当前我国乳业市场现状和江苏省气象服务中心开展的乳业气象服务现状进行分析研究,同时在服务对象南京卫岗乳业集团开展乳业气象服务效益评估分析,得出气象服务效益值,分析服务对象气象服务需求,最终得出乳业气象服务保障发展建议,提出了生态科技牧场服务、物流气象服务、零售气象服务等服务方向和思路。

国家级专业气象科技创新体系建立的思考与实践

分析了中国气象局专业气象研究所的定位、现状以及所面临的机遇和挑战;并从一个长期从事科学实践者的视角和专业气象研究所的具体特点,探索性地提出了创建我国一流国家级专业气象科技创新体系的一些重要问题;并结合中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所的实际,阐述了该所在创建干旱气象科技创新体系过程中的实践经验。

云南气象事业的奠基人——陈一得

陈一得,原名陈秉仁,字彝德,1886年生于云南盐津县,他是一位从大山深处走出来的农民的儿子,学生时代就勤奋好学,尤好数理,偏爱观测天地、山川,探究其奥秘。20世纪上半叶,由于他在气象、天文和地理方面的成就,使他成为云南气象业的拓荒者。创下了许多第一:创办云南第一个、全国第二个私立气象测候所,首创全国第一个天文观测仪器——"步天规",绘制了云南第一幅"昆明恒星图",筹建云南第一个公立气象测候所,第一次把定量分析法引人云南气象学研究,第一个在云南推行标准时制等等。1951年任云南省气象学会主席,1958年去世。

北京市蜂业气象指数保险需求调查与分析

蜜蜂产业对人类健康、农民致富和生态环境具有重要作用,但受自然天气影响程度较大。探索如何建立政府支持的农业巨灾风险转移与分摊机制就成为了政府和行业管理部门不断思考和期望解决的课题,而农业政策性保险是全面构建蜂业生产扶持保障体系的重要举措。本研究针对北京市养蜂农户对农业政策性保险的需求特点、参加保险的意愿及对蜂业生产影响较大的天气因素,开展了蜂业气象指数保险需求调查,对气象指标的选择、政府财政补贴的方式和参与保险的蜂农条件进行了分析和论述,为制订科学的蜂业气象指数保险条款提供重要的参考依据。

青海气象影视业发展途径的探讨

青海省气象影视业的发展，一方面要受本省经济条件的约束和限制，另一方面还要面对拓展业务服务领域，增强气象科技竞争力的严峻挑战。如何适应社会经济的快速发展和加入WTO后面临的新形势，青海省气象影视业的出路何在?如何开发电视气象资源将提上日程。

基于CIMISS的宁夏气象数据存储应用扩展研究

全国综合气象信息共享平台(CIMISS)为各省提供了统一标准的数据环境,但由于各级气象部门对数据需求的多样性和复杂性造成CIMISS承受巨大的处理压力,尤其对非结构化数据的存储和处理显得略微不足。针对上述问题,提出了基于CIMISS扩展的气象数据存储应用系统,并给出了基于Hadoop HDFS的非结构化数据存储应用扩展。目前,该系统已经开始试运行,运行效果良好,能够对气象业务起到一定的支撑作用。

黄河“96.8”致洪暴雨过程和数值模式预报分析

黄河“96.8”洪水是一次重要的强降水过程引起的。黄河流域地形复杂 ,而且降水时间分布极不均匀 ,预报难度较大。应用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 REM模式 (简称 LASGREM)对这次洪水暴雨过程进行了模拟预报。同时应用 L ASGREM的输出产品对该过程进行了分析。结果表明 ,该模式对黄河“96.8”致洪暴雨的模拟预报能力较强 ,适合于黄河水文气象业务预报。

Analysis on Agricultural Meteorological Condition of Osmanthus Blooming

Osmanthus, an ornamental plants, is favored by people, and forecast of Osmanthus florescence is of vital significance for enjoying the sight. Based on 15 years of flowering observation data, analysis was made on agricultural meteorologi- cal conditions of Osmanthus in Guilin and the results showed that ground tempera- ture, humidity, precipitation, sunshine have significant effects on Osmanthus flores- cence. In forecasting florescence, therefore, it is necessary to take comprehensive consideration of weather conditions and changes in the future, to release Osman- thus flowering forecast as per method of combination of long-term forecasting and short-term forecast.

Path Analysis on the Meteorological Factors Impacting Soil Respiration Rate of Wheat Field

[Objective]The experiment aimed to study the effects of meteorological factors under different weather conditions on soil respiration. [ Method] The path analysis was used to analyze meteorological factors which influenced soil respiration of wheat field under different weather condition and at jointing stage. [ Result] In sunny day, the correlations between ground temperature at 5 cm, solar radiation, air relative humidity, air temperature and soil respiration were all at significant level while solar radiation and ground temperature at 5 cm were the major factors which influenced soil respiration. In cloudy day, solar radiation was a major factor which influenced soil respiration.[ Conclusion] The soil respiration and surplus path coefficient in sunny day were all higher than these in cloudy day, which demonstrated that except influenced by ground temperature, air temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity, the soil respiration was also influenced by other factors especially biological factor.

Validation and intercomparison of HY-2A/MetOp-A/Oceansat-2 scatterometer wind products

Sea surface winds are of great significance in scientific research. In the last few years,three series of scatterometers were launched to measure these winds,including the Advanced Scatterometer(ASCAT) aboard Meteorological Operational Satellite A(Met Op-A) and Met Op-B,Oceansat-2 Scatterometer(OSCAT),and HY-2A Scatterometer(HY-2A SCAT). Based on buoy wind data,validation and intercomparison of these scatterometers were performed. Scatterometer-derived wind and buoy wind data were collected only if the spatial difference was less than 0.1 degree and temporal difference less than 5 min. After discarding wind direction data outside five times the standard deviation,ASCAT wind products showed high accuracy in both wind speed and direction,with root-mean-square error(RMSE) 0.86 m/s and 17.97 degrees,respectively. HY-2A SCAT nearly meets the mission requirement,with RMSE for wind speed 1.23 m/s and 22.85 degrees for wind direction. OSCAT had poor performance when compared with the others. RMSE for wind speed was 1.54 m/s and 39.86 degrees for wind direction,which greatly exceeds the mission requirement of 20 degrees. In addition,the RMSE for wind direction shows a high-low pattern on buoy wind speed. However,a wind speed range from 14 to 15 m/s was found to be abnormal,and the reason remains unclear. There was no systematic dependency of both wind speed and direction residuals on buoy wind speed and cross-track location of the wind vector cells across the entire range. No seasonal variation was found for any scatterometer.

STUDY ON THE METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION MODEL USING THE LEARNING ALGORITHM OF NEURAL ENSEMBLE BASED ON PSO ALGORITHMS

Because of the difficulty in deciding on the structure of BP neural network in operational meteorological application and the tendency for the network to transform to an issue of local solution, a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm based on Artificial Neural Network (PSO-BP) model is proposed for monthly mean rainfall of the whole area of Guangxi. It combines Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with BP, that is, the number of hidden nodes and connection weights are optimized by the implementation of PSO operation. The method produces a better network architecture and initial connection weights, trains the traditional backward propagation again by training samples. The ensemble strategy is carried out for the linear programming to calculate the best weights based on the "east sum of the error absolute value" as the optimal rule. The weighted coefficient of each ensemble individual is obtained. The results show that the method can effectively improve learning and generalization ability of the neural network.

Multiple Cropping Intensity in China Derived from Agro-meteorological Observations and MODIS Data

Double-and triple-cropping in a year have played a very important role in meeting the rising need for food in China.However,the intensified agricultural practices have significantly altered biogeochemical cycles and soil quality.Understanding and mapping cropping intensity in China′s agricultural systems are therefore necessary to better estimate carbon,nitrogen and water fluxes within agro-ecosystems on the national scale.In this study,we investigated the spatial pattern of crop calendar and multiple cropping rotations in China using phenological records from 394 agro-meteorological stations(AMSs)across China.The results from the analysis of in situ field observations were used to develop a new algorithm that identifies the spatial distribution of multiple cropping in China from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS)time series data with a 500 m spatial resolution and an 8-day temporal resolution.According to the MODIS-derived multiple cropping distribution in 2002,the proportion of cropland cultivated with multiple crops reached 34%in China.Double-cropping accounted for approximately 94.6%and triple-cropping for 5.4%.The results demonstrat that MODIS EVI(Enhanced Vegetation Index)time series data have the capability and potential to delineate the dynamics of double-and triple-cropping practices.The resultant multiple cropping map could be used to evaluate the impacts of agricultural intensification on biogeochemical cycles.

Study on Agro-meteorological Conditions for Film Mulching Planting in Autum

The agro-meteorological conditions for film mulching planting in autumn in Xiji, Ningxia was studied by using the meteorological data from the national basic stations over the years, including the mulching planting of corn in autumn in differ- ent stages from 1985 to 1986, the mulching planting in different stages after the appearance of effective precipitation in October, and the wind simulation experimen- tal data of blower. Precipitation suitability analysis model before autumn film mulching and crop growth period was simulated to analyze the effective precipitation weather before mulching planting in autumn, and simulations were also made to temperature suitability analysis model during soil preparation and film mulching peri- ods in autumn, the suitability function of optimal sowing time about the soil moisture dynamic changes in autumn in different times, the best water conservation effect in film mulching period at different time after the appearance of effective precipitation, the wind resistance function of film mulching in autumn. All the simulation work was of high referential value to carry out meteorological service and agricultural weather forecast about film mulching in autumn.

Research Overview of Chinese Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment

This paper summarized the key concepts, evaluation principle and meth-ods of the agricultural meteorological disaster risk, then reviewed the research progress of main agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment. The aim is to provide the reference of the system theory and method of agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment.

An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. This chain includes both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. The analysis is focused on Maggiore Lake basin, an Alpine basin between North-West of Italy and Southern Switzerland. Two hindcasts during the D-PHASE period are discussed in order to evaluate certain effects regarding discharge forecasts due to hydro-meteorological sources of uncertainties. In particular, in the June convective event it is analysed how the effect of meteorological model spatial resolution can influence the discharge forecasts over mountain basins, while in the November stratiform event how the effect of the initial conditions of soil moisture can modify meteorological warnings. The study shows how the introduction of alert codes appears to be useful for decision makers to give them a spread of forecasted QDFs with the probability of event occurrence, but also how alert warnings issued on the basis of forecasted precipitation only are not always reliable.

Climate Change in Southwest China during 1961–2010:Impacts and Adaptation

Due to climate change, the regional agro-climatic conditions in Southwest China have undergone changes. The heat sources for the growth of crops have been improved. The number of days with temperatures steadily above 0℃ and 10℃ （two criteria） have increased during 1960-2010. The area suitable for multiple cropping has increased; the growth period has shortened; the climatic potential productivity has declined; the pest damage has worsened. During 1986-2010, the desired cooling degree days in Southwest China has increased at 38.9℃ d per decade. Forest fires and pests have increased. The area of meadow and wetlands has decreased. Heterogeneous invasion has intensified; endangered animal and plant species have increased. The tourism landscape has been damaged.＇ The risk of human health has increased. In the 21st century, with the increase of temperature and precipitation, the number of days with temperature steadily above 10℃ and the accumulated temperature will continue to increase, most notably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The area of intercropping will expand; multiple cropping will move to higher altitudes. The impacts of agro- meteorological disasters, pests and diseases will intensify. The summer cooling energy consumption continues to increase; energy supply will show larger variability; the gap between energy supply and demand will be widened. The phenology will keep on changing, and the habitat will be worsening. Biological population will move northward and to higher altitudes. Some species are at risk of extinction. Negative effects on health will increase.

Effects of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters on Agricultural Production in Chuzhou City of Anhui Province

According to data of agricultural disasters in Chuzhou City of Anhui Province during 1988-2012, types, characteristics and effects on agricultural produc- tion of major major meteorological disasters in the city were analyzed, and then measures to prevent meteorological disasters adopted by meteorological departments of the city in recent years were discussed.