基于多气象类型加权和改进高斯混合模型的光伏出力超短期概率预测

提出一种多气象类型加权和改进高斯混合模型,可实现对光伏出力提前15 min的超短期概率预测。首先,依据气象特征将历史数据划分为若干气象类型,然后,构建改进高斯混合模型获得每个气象类型出力数据的概率分布,其次,构建隶属度函数量化待预测时刻气象特征对于各气象类型的相似程度,最后,根据隶属度对各气象类型的概率分布加权。以实际光伏电站数据进行算例分析,结果表明相较于单一气象类型,多气象类型加权模型的MAPE平均减少16.87%,ACD平均提升10.45%,AW平均下降2.49%。

辽宁省煤烟型轻度污染典型气象类型解析

分析2005年以来辽宁省14个城市逐污染物逐日的污染指数API数据，针对煤烟型轻度污染，解析其发生的典型污染气象类型。研究表明：共有6个类型．分别为（1）长白山高压、地形槽型；（2）蒙古高压内部均压场型；（3）东北高压脊、西部倒槽形；（4）蒙古高压前均压场型；（5）蒙古低压前均压场型；（6）高压内部小范围均压场型。其中类型（1）、（2）、（4）、（6）最大的区别在于均压区的范围不同，他们可能对应冷空气影响的不同时段。高压内部小范围均压场型、高压内部大范围均压场型到长白山高压、地形槽、高压前部弱梯度，是一个连续的冷空气爆发、变性过程，而且这些类型并没有鲜明的界限，有些个例可能同属其中2个型，只是有些侧重。但必须指出。属于这些类型的个别个例受排放源的影响，可能并不严格对应Ⅲ级污染，需要用其他技术进行排除。

考虑气象因素的光伏AI发电功率预测技术研究

不同气象情况会影响太阳辐射强度,使光伏发电输出功率波动,为实时掌握光伏发电功率,有必要在考虑气象因素的基础上构建光伏发电功率预测模型。利用灰色关联度方法对历史气象数据进行气象类型量化处理后筛选样本数据;建立了光伏AI发电功率预测模型,将筛选后的气象样本数据作为模型输入并进行训练,输出训练后的光伏发电功率预测结果。实际应用结果表明:该技术在预测光伏发电功率时不存在过拟合情况,筛选气象数据样本时的关联度数值最高为0.90,可有效预测一天内不同时刻的光伏发电功率,且误差值较小。

沈阳市PM_(2.5)浓度ARIMA-SVM组合预测研究

首先利用回归树分类方法,对采暖期与非采暖期各日进行气象类型划分,识别出易造成重污染天气的气象类型.其次分别在各气象类型内,以污染源排放量为自变量,利用差分自回归滑动平均与支持向量机(ARIMA+SVM)组合方法建立起PM_(2.5)浓度日均值预测模型,并选取2013年01月～2017年06月间,沈阳市区内9个环境监测点PM_(2.5)浓度日均值进行实证分析.结果表明,使用气象分类下的ARIMA+SVM组合模型对PM_(2.5)浓度日均值进行预测,相比于不划分气象类型时的普通机器学习模型,其模型预测值与实测值趋势的吻合度更高,且对峰-谷值的识别能力更强.在采暖期与非采暖期,组合模型均具有平均绝对误差更低、预测正确率更高的优点.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MIDDLE EAST JET STREAM DURING SEASONAL TRANSITION AND ITS RELATION WITH INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

By using the NCEP/NCAR pentad reanalysis data from 1968 to 2009, the variation characteristics of Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and its thermal mechanism during seasonal transition are studied. Results show that the intensity and south-north location of MEJS center exhibit obvious seasonal variation characteristics. When MEJS is strong, it is at 27.5°N from the 67 th pentad to the 24 th pentad the following year; when MEJS is weak, it is at 45°N from the 38 th pentad to the 44 th pentad. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) mode of 200-hPa zonal wind field shows that MEJS is mainly over Egypt and Saudi Arabia in winter and over the eastern Black Sea and the eastern Aral Sea in summer. MEJS intensity markedly weakens in summer in comparison with that in winter. The 26th-31 st pentad is the spring-summer transition of MEJS, and the 54th-61 st pentad the autumn-winter transition. During the two seasonal transitions, the temporal variations of the 500-200 hPa south-north temperature difference(SNTD) well match with 200-hPa zonal wind velocity, indicating that the former leads to the latter following the principle of thermal wind. A case analysis shows that there is a close relation between the onset date of Indian summer monsoon and the transition date of MEJS seasonal transition. When the outbreak date of Indian summer monsoon is earlier than normal, MEJS moves northward earlier because the larger SNTD between 500-200 hPa moves northward earlier, with the westerly jet in the lower troposphere over 40°-90°E appearing earlier than normal, and vice versa.

EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON AUTUMN PRECIPITATION OVER MID-EASTERN CHINA

Long-term observational data indicated a decreasing trend for the amount of autumn precipitation(i.e. 54.3 mm per decade) over Mid-Eastern China, especially after the 1980s(~ 5.6% per decade). To examine the cause of the decreasing trend, the mechanisms associated with the change of autumn precipitation were investigated from the perspective of water vapor transportation, atmospheric stability and cloud microphysics. Results show that the decrease of convective available potential energy(i.e. 12.81 J kg-1/ decade) and change of cloud microphysics, which were closely related to the increase of aerosol loading during the past twenty years, were the two primary factors responsible for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Our results showed that increased aerosol could enhance the atmospheric stability thus weaken the convection. Meanwhile, more aerosols also led to a significant decline of raindrop concentration and to a delay of raindrop formation because of smaller size of cloud droplets. Thus, increased aerosols produced by air pollution could be one of the major reasons for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Furthermore, we found that the aerosol effects on precipitation in autumn was more significant than in other seasons, partly due to relatively more stable synoptic systems in autumn. The impact of large-scale circulation dominant in autumn and the dynamic influence on precipitation was more important than the thermodynamic activity.

POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG SOUTH CHINA SEA SSTA, SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN SOUTHWEST CHINA AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA

By using 1958-2001 NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST) data, ERA40 reanalysis soil moisture data and precipitation data of 444 stations in China(east of 100°E), the possible relationships among South China Sea(SCS) SST anomaly(SSTA), soil moisture anomalies(SMA) and summer precipitation in eastern China as well as their possible physical processes are investigated. Results show that the SSTA of SCS bears an evidently negative correlation with spring soil moisture in the east part of Southwest China. More(less) precipitation happens in the Yangtze River basin and less(more) in the Southeast China in summer when the SSTA of SCS is higher(lower) than normal and the soil in the east part of Southwest China is dry(wet) in spring. Further analysis shows that when the SSTA of SCS is high(low), the southwesterly wind at low level is weak(strong), decreasing(increasing) the water vapor transport in South China, resulting in reduced(increased) spring precipitation in the east part of Southwest China and more(less) soil moisture in spring. Through the evaporation feedback mechanism, the dry(wet) soil makes the surface temperature higher(lower) in summer, causing the westward extension(eastward retreat) of the West Pacific Subtropical High, eventually leading to the summer precipitation anomalies.

THE INTENSITY VARIATION OF THE SUMMER INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND ITS IMPACT ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

Based on the satellite data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the variation of the intensity of convection over the Intertropical Convergence Zone （ITCZ） in summer and its impacts on tropical cyclones are studied. In this paper, an intensity index of the ITCZ is proposed according to Outgoing Longwave Radiation （OLR） in the region of （5°-20°N, 120°-150°E） in the western North Pacific （WNP）. Then strong and weak ITCZ years are classified and different variables during the strong/weak ITCZ years are analyzed. The composite results show that the ITCZ anomaly is connected to the general atmospheric circulation and SST distribution. In the strong ITCZ years, the subtropical anticyclone weakens and shifts northward. Besides, there is salient cyclonic anomaly at the low level and anticyclonic anomaly at the high level. SST patterns in the preceding winter resemble to those of La Nifia. It could persist into the succeeding summer. However, it is opposite in the weak ITCZ years. The impact of the ITCZ anomaly on the tropical cyclone （TC） formation and track is also discussed. There are more TCs over the WNP （5°-20°N, 120°-150°E） in the strong ITCZ years and there is a significant increase in the northward recurving TCs. In the weak ITCZ years, fewer TCs occur and the frequency of the northwestward track is higher.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source(NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that:(1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain;(2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast;(3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR;(4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and(5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.

RETRIEVAL OF CLEAR SKY MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE PACIFIC USING MEASUREMENTS OF MICROWAVE HUMIDITY SOUNDER FROM FY-3A SATELLITE

An improved Smith iterative method, which generally applies to microwave bands, is described. The moisture profiles retrieved from the brightness temperature data of microwave humidity sounder onboard FY-3A satellite, pertaining to clear sky, are shown over western North Pacific by using a vector-discrete ordination radiative transfer model. The retrieved profiles are compared with those from MODIS products, and the results of single point show that they are in good agreement with the results for lower layers. The distribution of retrieved humidity at 500 hPa is basically consistent with the actual situation, and the values are lower than that of the MODIS products. Compared with MODIS products, RMS is within 5.76g/kg at every single level separately.

POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF FEBRUARY-APRIL ARCTIC OSCILLATION ON THE ITCZ ACTIVITY OF WESTERN-CENTRAL PACIFIC

The daily patterns and activity of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) in the Western-Central Pacific Ocean are analyzed using NOAA interpolated Outgoing Longwave Radiation dataset during the period from 1979 to 2008, and the relationships between ITCZ patterns and Arctic Oscillation(AO) is investigated in this paper. In accordance with the central activity region the daily ITCZ can be divided into six patterns—north, south, equator, double, full and weak pattern, respectively. The statistic result shows that the north(accounting for 30.98% of the total observations), south(31.11%) and weak(24.05%) ITCZ patterns are the most active daily patterns within a 30-year period, while the other three ITCZ patterns occur infrequently. Results show that the February-April AO index has a significant positive(negative) correlation with the frequency of the north(weak) ITCZ pattern from March-May to August-October, with the strongest correlation in April-June(March-May). At the same time, the lower tropospheric atmosphere circulation(850-hPa wind field) and SST anomalies corresponding to the AO change significantly in the tropical Pacific. When AO is in the positive phase, there is an anomalous westerly from the equator to 15°N and warmer SST in the critical north ITCZ active region, while there is an anomalous easterly and insignificant change of SST from the equator to 15°S. The wind and SST anomalies share the same characteristics of the equatorial asymmetry and thus enlarge the gradient between the south and north of equator, which would help reinforce convection in the north of equator and result in more frequent occurrence of the northern type of ITCZ.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE IMPACT OF LATENT HEAT FLUX ANOMALY IN THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC ON PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CHINA IN JUNES

Based on composite analysis and numerical simulations using a regional climate model(RegCM3), this paper analyzed the impact of the LHF anomaly in the tropical western Pacific on the precipitation over the south of China in June. The results are as follows.(1) Correlation analysis shows that the SC precipitation in June is negatively correlated with the LHF of the tropical western Pacific in May and June, especially in May. The SC precipitation in June appears to negatively correlate with low-level relative vorticity in the abnormal area of LHF in the tropical western Pacific.(2) The LHF anomaly in the tropical western Pacific is a vital factor affecting the flood and drought of SC in June. A conceptual model goes like this: When the LHF in the tropical western Pacific is abnormally increased(decreased), an anomalous cyclone(anticyclone) circulation is formed at the low-level troposphere to its northwest. As a result, an anomalous northeast(southwest) air flow affects the south of China, being disadvantageous(advantageous) to the transportation of water vapor to the region. Meanwhile, there is an anomalous anticyclone(cyclone) at the low-level troposphere and an anomalous cyclone(anticyclone) circulation at the high-level troposphere in the region, which is advantageous for downdraft(updraft) there. Therefore a virtual circulation forms updraft(downdraft) in the anomalous area of LHF and downdraft(updraft) in the south of China, which finally leads to the drought(flood) in the region.