It is well known that suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) induces an anticyclonic anomaly,and this anticyclonic anomaly results in more rainfall along the East Asian rain band through more...It is well known that suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) induces an anticyclonic anomaly,and this anticyclonic anomaly results in more rainfall along the East Asian rain band through more water vapor transport during summer, as well as early and middle summer. However, the present results indicate that during late summer(from mid-August to the beginning of September), the anomalous anticyclone leads to more rainfall over central southern China(CSC), a region quite different from preceding periods. The uniqueness of late summer is found to be related to the dramatic change in climatological monsoon flows: southerlies over southern China during early and middle summer but easterlies during late summer. Therefore, the anomalous anticyclone, which shows a southerly anomaly over southern China, enhances monsoonal southerlies and induces more rainfall along the rain band during early and middle summer. During late summer,however, the anomalous anticyclone reflects a complicated change in monsoon flows: it changes the path, rather than the intensity, of monsoon flows. Specifically, during late summers of suppressed convection in the tropical WNP, southerlies dominate from the South China Sea to southern China, and during late summers of enhanced convection, northeasterlies dominate from the East China Sea to southern China, causing more and less rainfall in CSC, respectively.展开更多
For the assessment of the impact of future climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia, it is necessary to downscale the climate change simulations of a coarse scale General Circ...For the assessment of the impact of future climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia, it is necessary to downscale the climate change simulations of a coarse scale General Circulation Model to the region of Peninsular Malaysia at fine grid resolution. This paper presents a desktop review of the state of climate change parameters, namely rainfall and river flow over the Peninsular Malaysia for the 2041-2050 projection period. Analysis of the results from the models shows there will be a substantial increase in mean monthly precipitation over the North East Coastal region from historical 259.5 mm to 281.5 mm, from 289.0 mm to 299.0 mm and 221.8 mm to 239.5 mm over Terengganu and Kelantan, respectively. Meanwhile, for river flow projection, it will be an expected increase in interannual and intraseasonal variability with increased hydrologic extremes (higher high flows, and lower low flows) at Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu, and Kedah watersheds in the future.展开更多
This study evaluates the simulation of summer rainfall changes in the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) based on the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs of 20 CMIP5 coupled Gene...This study evaluates the simulation of summer rainfall changes in the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) based on the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs of 20 CMIP5 coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs) are analyzed. The Multi-Model ensemble (MME) of the CMIP5 models well reproduces the general feature of NIO summer rainfall. For a short period 1979?2005, 14 out of 20 models show an increased trend in the mean rainfall and a similar spatial distri-bution to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations in MME. The increasing of the convergence in the equatorial IO results in the increase of rainfall significantly. The equatorial rainfall trend patterns seem modulated by the SST warm-ing in the tropical Indian Ocean, which confirm the mechanism of 'warmer-get-wetter' theory. For a long period 1950?2005, the trend of monsoon rainfall over India shows a decrease over the most parts of the India except an increase over the south corn er of the Indian Peninsula, due to a weakened summer monsoon circulation. The pattern is well simulated in half of the CMIP5 models. The rainfall over the north India is different for a short period, in which rainfall increases in 1979?2005, implying possible decadal varia-tion in the NIO summer climate.展开更多
This study evaluates the seasonal cycle of the activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves(CCEWs),including mixed Rossby-gravity(MRG) and tropical depression-type(TD-type) waves,based on the twentieth century ex...This study evaluates the seasonal cycle of the activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves(CCEWs),including mixed Rossby-gravity(MRG) and tropical depression-type(TD-type) waves,based on the twentieth century experiments of 18 global climate models(GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP3).The ensemble result of the 18 GCMs shows that the observed seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity cannot be well reproduced.The seasonal transition of wave activity from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere is delayed from April in the observations to May in the simulations,indicating that the simulated active season of tropical waves in the northern hemisphere is delayed and shortened.This delayed seasonal transition of tropical wave activity is associated with a delayed seasonal transition of simulated mean precipitation.The mean precipitation in April and May shows a double-ITCZ problem,and the horizontal resolution is important to the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity.Because of the coincident seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity and tropical cyclone(TC) geneses,the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity may imply a similar problem of TC genesis in the GCMs,namely,a delayed and shortened TC season in the northern hemisphere.展开更多
Natural convection heat transfer in eccentric annuli made of two isothermal horizontal circular cylinders is numerically investigated. Bipolar coordinates are used for the eccentric annuli. The governingequations are ...Natural convection heat transfer in eccentric annuli made of two isothermal horizontal circular cylinders is numerically investigated. Bipolar coordinates are used for the eccentric annuli. The governingequations are transformed into finite difference equations (FDE) by the central difference approach.Heat transfer and flow convection pattern results are simulated for 5.0≤RaL≤1.0×105, withPr = 0.3 - 100, Do/Di = 1.25 - 5.0, andε= 0.01-0.95. The axis of the inner cylinder lies onan inclined plane with θp= 0°- 180°.A Mach-Zehnder interferometer is used for the experimentalstudy. The range is for RaL = 5.3×102-2.41×104, with Do/Di = 2.0, 2.5 and 3.125,ε= 0.0-0.85,and θp= 0°-180°.Air is used as the medium. Comparison of the numerical results with the experimental data shows good agreement.展开更多
This paper presents a review on the impact of El Nio on the interannual variability of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China through the anomalous anticyclone over western North Pacific(WNPAC)....This paper presents a review on the impact of El Nio on the interannual variability of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China through the anomalous anticyclone over western North Pacific(WNPAC). It explains the formation mechanisms of the WNPAC and physical processes by which the WNPAC affects the rainfall in China. During the mature phase of El Nio, the convective cooling anomalies over western tropical Pacific caused by the weakened convections trigger up an atmospheric Rossby wave response, resulting in the generation of the WNPAC. The WNPAC can persist from the winter when the El Nio is in its peak to subsequent summer, which is maintained by multiple factors including the sustained presence of convective cooling anomalies and the local air-sea interaction over western tropical Pacific, and the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in tropical Indian and tropical North Atlantic. The WNPAC can influence the atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China not only simultaneously, but also in the subsequent summer after an El Nio year, leading to more rainfall over southern China. The current paper also points out that significant anomalies of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall over southern China occur in El Nio winter but not in La Nio winter, suggesting that El Nio and La Nio have an asymmetric effect. Other issues, including the impact of El Nio diversity and its impact as well as the relations of the factors affecting the persistence of the WNPAC with summer rainfall anomalies in China, are also discussed. At the end of this paper some issues calling for further investigation are discussed.展开更多
Spring is the critical period for atmospheric circulation transition from winter to summer. The spring water cycle is very im- portant to agriculture in planting crop and the initial growth of crop. Note that there wa...Spring is the critical period for atmospheric circulation transition from winter to summer. The spring water cycle is very im- portant to agriculture in planting crop and the initial growth of crop. Note that there was a significant abrupt decadal change in the water budget increase during early spring over eastern China in the late 1970s. Studied here are the decadal variations of water budgets over the key regions and the associated change of water cycle over East Asia and atmospheric circulation over Asia-West Pacific region in early spring, using the observed (OBS) precipitation, the ECMWF (ERA) and NCEP/NCAR rea- nalysis (NRA), and the Mantua's Pacific decadal oscillation index (PDOI). The water budget increments from March to April exhibited a sharp decrease over the key region around Huaihe River basin (HHR) (111°-120°E; 31°-36°N) after year 1978. Before 1977 the water vapor flux through south boundary of the HHR region increased greatly during March to April by 1.52 mm d^-1 in ERA and 1.88 mm d^-1 in NRA. Concurrently the moisture convergence and precipitation over the region also in- creased greatly. The increment for the moisture convergence was 1.11 mmd^-1 in ERA and 1.22 mm d^-1 in NRA, and for the precipitation was 1.05 mm d^-1 in observation and 1.05 mm d^-1 in ERA. April was the time that the water budgets over HHR increased most rapidly before 1977. But after 1978 the water budgets decreased conversely from Mach to April. The water vapor flux increment through the south boundary was -0.03 mmd^-1 in ERA and 0.01 mm d^-1 in NRA, the moisture conver- gence increment was -0.91 mm d^-1 in ERA and -0.53 mm d^-1 in NRA, and precipitation increment was -0.08 mm d^-1 in ob- servation and -0.15 mm d^-1 in ERA. Further investigation has shown that the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the early spring has correspondingly changed significantly after the late 1970s. During March to April, the weakening of the trough over East Asia became significantly slower, and the strengthening of the ridge over the west China became significantly faster in the middle troposphere after the late 1970s. At the same time, in the lower troposphere, the strengthening and northward extending of the west pan of the subtropical high and the weakening of the trough over the southwest part of the Aleutian low in the early spring became slower, and the weakening of the main part of Asian high became slower, but the strengthening of its west part became faster. This significant decadal change of circulation caused a sharp decrease in the northward extending speed of wa- ter vapor transport, and in the water budgets increasing speed over the southeastern China during early spring after the late 1970s.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41721004 and 41320104007)
文摘It is well known that suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) induces an anticyclonic anomaly,and this anticyclonic anomaly results in more rainfall along the East Asian rain band through more water vapor transport during summer, as well as early and middle summer. However, the present results indicate that during late summer(from mid-August to the beginning of September), the anomalous anticyclone leads to more rainfall over central southern China(CSC), a region quite different from preceding periods. The uniqueness of late summer is found to be related to the dramatic change in climatological monsoon flows: southerlies over southern China during early and middle summer but easterlies during late summer. Therefore, the anomalous anticyclone, which shows a southerly anomaly over southern China, enhances monsoonal southerlies and induces more rainfall along the rain band during early and middle summer. During late summer,however, the anomalous anticyclone reflects a complicated change in monsoon flows: it changes the path, rather than the intensity, of monsoon flows. Specifically, during late summers of suppressed convection in the tropical WNP, southerlies dominate from the South China Sea to southern China, and during late summers of enhanced convection, northeasterlies dominate from the East China Sea to southern China, causing more and less rainfall in CSC, respectively.
文摘For the assessment of the impact of future climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia, it is necessary to downscale the climate change simulations of a coarse scale General Circulation Model to the region of Peninsular Malaysia at fine grid resolution. This paper presents a desktop review of the state of climate change parameters, namely rainfall and river flow over the Peninsular Malaysia for the 2041-2050 projection period. Analysis of the results from the models shows there will be a substantial increase in mean monthly precipitation over the North East Coastal region from historical 259.5 mm to 281.5 mm, from 289.0 mm to 299.0 mm and 221.8 mm to 239.5 mm over Terengganu and Kelantan, respectively. Meanwhile, for river flow projection, it will be an expected increase in interannual and intraseasonal variability with increased hydrologic extremes (higher high flows, and lower low flows) at Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu, and Kedah watersheds in the future.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB955603,2010CB-950302)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA 05090404,LTOZZ1202)
文摘This study evaluates the simulation of summer rainfall changes in the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) based on the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs of 20 CMIP5 coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs) are analyzed. The Multi-Model ensemble (MME) of the CMIP5 models well reproduces the general feature of NIO summer rainfall. For a short period 1979?2005, 14 out of 20 models show an increased trend in the mean rainfall and a similar spatial distri-bution to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations in MME. The increasing of the convergence in the equatorial IO results in the increase of rainfall significantly. The equatorial rainfall trend patterns seem modulated by the SST warm-ing in the tropical Indian Ocean, which confirm the mechanism of 'warmer-get-wetter' theory. For a long period 1950?2005, the trend of monsoon rainfall over India shows a decrease over the most parts of the India except an increase over the south corn er of the Indian Peninsula, due to a weakened summer monsoon circulation. The pattern is well simulated in half of the CMIP5 models. The rainfall over the north India is different for a short period, in which rainfall increases in 1979?2005, implying possible decadal varia-tion in the NIO summer climate.
基金supported financially by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2010CB950403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Major Research,Grant No. 40890151+2 种基金Grant Nos.40921160379 and 41105047)supported by the National Science Council (Grant No. NSC98-2745-M-001-005-MY3)supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy
文摘This study evaluates the seasonal cycle of the activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves(CCEWs),including mixed Rossby-gravity(MRG) and tropical depression-type(TD-type) waves,based on the twentieth century experiments of 18 global climate models(GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP3).The ensemble result of the 18 GCMs shows that the observed seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity cannot be well reproduced.The seasonal transition of wave activity from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere is delayed from April in the observations to May in the simulations,indicating that the simulated active season of tropical waves in the northern hemisphere is delayed and shortened.This delayed seasonal transition of tropical wave activity is associated with a delayed seasonal transition of simulated mean precipitation.The mean precipitation in April and May shows a double-ITCZ problem,and the horizontal resolution is important to the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity.Because of the coincident seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity and tropical cyclone(TC) geneses,the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity may imply a similar problem of TC genesis in the GCMs,namely,a delayed and shortened TC season in the northern hemisphere.
文摘Natural convection heat transfer in eccentric annuli made of two isothermal horizontal circular cylinders is numerically investigated. Bipolar coordinates are used for the eccentric annuli. The governingequations are transformed into finite difference equations (FDE) by the central difference approach.Heat transfer and flow convection pattern results are simulated for 5.0≤RaL≤1.0×105, withPr = 0.3 - 100, Do/Di = 1.25 - 5.0, andε= 0.01-0.95. The axis of the inner cylinder lies onan inclined plane with θp= 0°- 180°.A Mach-Zehnder interferometer is used for the experimentalstudy. The range is for RaL = 5.3×102-2.41×104, with Do/Di = 2.0, 2.5 and 3.125,ε= 0.0-0.85,and θp= 0°-180°.Air is used as the medium. Comparison of the numerical results with the experimental data shows good agreement.
基金supported by the National Key Project for Basic Science Development (Grant No. 2015CB453203)the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2016YFA0600602)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41661144017)
文摘This paper presents a review on the impact of El Nio on the interannual variability of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China through the anomalous anticyclone over western North Pacific(WNPAC). It explains the formation mechanisms of the WNPAC and physical processes by which the WNPAC affects the rainfall in China. During the mature phase of El Nio, the convective cooling anomalies over western tropical Pacific caused by the weakened convections trigger up an atmospheric Rossby wave response, resulting in the generation of the WNPAC. The WNPAC can persist from the winter when the El Nio is in its peak to subsequent summer, which is maintained by multiple factors including the sustained presence of convective cooling anomalies and the local air-sea interaction over western tropical Pacific, and the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in tropical Indian and tropical North Atlantic. The WNPAC can influence the atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China not only simultaneously, but also in the subsequent summer after an El Nio year, leading to more rainfall over southern China. The current paper also points out that significant anomalies of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall over southern China occur in El Nio winter but not in La Nio winter, suggesting that El Nio and La Nio have an asymmetric effect. Other issues, including the impact of El Nio diversity and its impact as well as the relations of the factors affecting the persistence of the WNPAC with summer rainfall anomalies in China, are also discussed. At the end of this paper some issues calling for further investigation are discussed.
基金supported by Key Project for Integration and Ap-plicaion of Key Meteorological Technology (Grant No.CMAGJ2012Z08)Public Welfare Scientific Research Project (Meteorology) Foundation (Grant No.GYHY201106010)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.40821092,40810059005 and 41105097)
文摘Spring is the critical period for atmospheric circulation transition from winter to summer. The spring water cycle is very im- portant to agriculture in planting crop and the initial growth of crop. Note that there was a significant abrupt decadal change in the water budget increase during early spring over eastern China in the late 1970s. Studied here are the decadal variations of water budgets over the key regions and the associated change of water cycle over East Asia and atmospheric circulation over Asia-West Pacific region in early spring, using the observed (OBS) precipitation, the ECMWF (ERA) and NCEP/NCAR rea- nalysis (NRA), and the Mantua's Pacific decadal oscillation index (PDOI). The water budget increments from March to April exhibited a sharp decrease over the key region around Huaihe River basin (HHR) (111°-120°E; 31°-36°N) after year 1978. Before 1977 the water vapor flux through south boundary of the HHR region increased greatly during March to April by 1.52 mm d^-1 in ERA and 1.88 mm d^-1 in NRA. Concurrently the moisture convergence and precipitation over the region also in- creased greatly. The increment for the moisture convergence was 1.11 mmd^-1 in ERA and 1.22 mm d^-1 in NRA, and for the precipitation was 1.05 mm d^-1 in observation and 1.05 mm d^-1 in ERA. April was the time that the water budgets over HHR increased most rapidly before 1977. But after 1978 the water budgets decreased conversely from Mach to April. The water vapor flux increment through the south boundary was -0.03 mmd^-1 in ERA and 0.01 mm d^-1 in NRA, the moisture conver- gence increment was -0.91 mm d^-1 in ERA and -0.53 mm d^-1 in NRA, and precipitation increment was -0.08 mm d^-1 in ob- servation and -0.15 mm d^-1 in ERA. Further investigation has shown that the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the early spring has correspondingly changed significantly after the late 1970s. During March to April, the weakening of the trough over East Asia became significantly slower, and the strengthening of the ridge over the west China became significantly faster in the middle troposphere after the late 1970s. At the same time, in the lower troposphere, the strengthening and northward extending of the west pan of the subtropical high and the weakening of the trough over the southwest part of the Aleutian low in the early spring became slower, and the weakening of the main part of Asian high became slower, but the strengthening of its west part became faster. This significant decadal change of circulation caused a sharp decrease in the northward extending speed of wa- ter vapor transport, and in the water budgets increasing speed over the southeastern China during early spring after the late 1970s.