水库地震诱震区预测与强度评估

以四川西部地区几个水库诱发地震预测评估资料为基础，总结了水库诱发地震研究中对库区内诱震区段的５条预测依据及３条诱震强度（震级上限）评估判断方法，其最终结论意见应以各条依据或方法为基础。

Simultaneous Inversion of Earthquake Relocation and Velocity Structure in the Shanxi-reservoir,Wenzhou

Using the data of P-wave network and Zhejiang and travel time recorded at the Shanxi-reservoir seismological Fujian local networks, we implemented a simultaneous inversion of earthquake relocation and velocity structure and determined the new locations of earthquakes in the Shanxi-reservoir. The results show that： （1） the overall epicenter distribution is NW directed, and the Shanxi reservoir induced seismicity has a close relationship to the Shuangxi-Jiaoxiyang fault; （2） the focal depth of the Shanxi reservoir induced seismicity is 5.4km in average, less than the average focal depth in the South China earthquake zone; （3） the focal depth is shallower on the reservoir shore and deeper in the reservoir inundation area. At the beginning of the reservoir induced seismicity, the focal depth increased gradually. This may be due to the gradual penetration of water into a larger depth that induced deeper earthquakes; and （4） there is a low P-wave velocity anomaly in the study area, located at the intersection of multiple faults in the reservoir inundation area. The Shanxi reservoir induced seismicity mostly occurred in this lowvelocity anomaly zone. This may be related to water penetration.

Determination of reservoir induced earthquake using support vector machine and gaussian process regression

The prediction of magnitude （M） of reservoir induced earthquake is an important task in earthquake engineering. In this article, we employ a Support Vector Machine （SVM） and Gaussian Process Regression （GPR） for prediction of reservoir induced earthquake M based on reservoir parameters. Comprehensive parameter （E） and maximum reservoir depth] （H） are considered as inputs to the SVM and GPR. We give an equation for determination oil reservoir induced earthquake M. The developed SVM and GPR have been compared with] the Artificial Neural Network （ANN） method. The results show that the developed SVM and] GPR are efficient tools for prediction of reservoir induced earthquake M. /

Intensive Observation of Reservoirinduced Seismicity and Preliminary Analysis on the Causes of Earthquakes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Yangtze River

In accordance with the requirements of the National Key Technology R＆D Program of the 11th ＂Five-year Plan＂, a densified seismic network consisting of 26 seismic stations was established at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in the section of Hubei Province in March 2009 （21 short-period seismographs, 5 broadband digital seismographs）. From March to December, 2009, a total of 2,995 ML -0. 8 - 2. 9 earthquakes were detected during the trial impounding of the Three Gorges Reservoir （ water level rose from 145 m to 172.8m）. Using the double difference earthquake location algorithm, 2,837 earthquakes were precisely re-located. The results show that the pattern of small local earthquake swarms in the Three Gorges Reservoir area took on a linear distribution or mass-like cluster distribution, the mass-like clusters of events were generally within a distance of 5 km from waterfront, and the linear distribution of the earthquakes could be extended to a distance of 16 km away from the waterfront. In the Hubei section of the Three Gorges Reservoir, earthquakes were mainly concentrated in the northern end of the Xiannvshan and Jiuwanxi faults near the Xiangxihe River, and along the banks of the Yangtze River at the west of Xietan township and the Shenlongxi area on the northern bank in the Badong region, with focal depths less than 10km, and 4km in average. Earthquake frequency in the reservoir region had a positive correlation with reservoir water level fluctuations, indicating that the seismicity belongs to reservoir induced earthquakes. Along the Shenlong River in the reservoir area, earthquakes showed three linear distributions in the northern Badong county, and distributed according to Karst distribution. There are underground rivers in the carbonate strata. When the reservoir was impounded, water permeated into the underground rivers, thus inducing earthquakes. Earthquakes in the areas on the crossriver segment of Xiannvshan fault, the Jiuwanxi fault and at the areas west of Xietan, Shazhen and Xizhen, may be related to the softening of discontinuities, such as the Nukou fault, the Xiannvshan fault, or the bedding joints, which would lead to failure of rock masses, thus, inducing earthquakes. However, convincing conclusions about the triggering mechanism still need further study. Additionally, near the areas south of Wenhua and Yanglin of Zigui county and at Rangkou town east of Badong county, mininginduced earthquakes occurred at the mines nearby, and on the shores of the reservoir are some collapse earthquakes.

On the Occurrence Time of an Earthquake Cluster in the Shanxi Reservoir

An earthquake cluster occurred in the Shanxi reservoir, located around Wenzhou city in Zbejiang Province. From February 4 to February 11, 2006, 9 earthquakes with ML ≥ 4.0 occurred, and the greatest magnitude was ML4.6. The correlations of earthquake occurrence time with reservoir level changes and tides are discussed, and the possible factors that induced the reservoir earthquakes and the trend of seismic activity are analyzed based on the characteristics of earthquake occurrence time. Finally, we suggest that it is necessary to slow down the speed of storing water and to maintain a level below the highest historical level to avoid greater earthquakes in the reservoir.

The research and demonstration of some major geological problems of Three Gorges Project

The research process,main contents,methods and conclusions for some major engineering geological problems of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) are reviewed and introduced,including dam site selection,regional tectonic stability and seismic activity,stability of reservoir bank and reservoir-induced earthquake.Meanwhile,the above mentioned engineering geological problems are evaluated according to the preliminary test results since TGP operation and impoundment in 2003.

Research and Practice on the Crustal Deformation Mobile Monitoring Network Layout in the Hydropower Station Reservoir Area

According to the construction project of the crustal deformation mobile monitoring network in the cascade hydropower stations built in the lower reaches of Jinsha River,this paper analyzes the design ideas and layout principles of crustal deformation mobile monitoring used in the monitoring of reservoir induced earthquakes. This paper introduces three types of monitoring networks used in the Xiluodu reservoir and Xiangjiaba reservoir, as well as the work already undertaken,in order to provide a kind of reference for the related engineering construction and comprehensive monitoring of reservoir induced earthquakes.

Relocation and Genetic Analysis of Earthquakes in the West of Xietan Area of Three Gorges Reservoir

136 earthquakes,taking place in the west of Xietan area,recorded by portable stations deployed in the Three Georges reservoir area were relocated using the double difference algorithm.The relocations show that the root-mean-square deviations of the relocations in the directions of E-W,N-S and U-D are 0.38km,0.33km and 0.98km,respectively.The earthquakes in clasolite area with focal depths of about 4km～5km take on linear distributions from the shallow to deep parts.These earthquakes were deduced to be reservoir-induced earthquakes of fault fracture type.In contrast,the earthquakes in limestone pavement with the focal depths about 2km～3km take on slightly divergent distributions and have the characteristics of reservoir-induced earthquakes of the karst collapse type.

The M_S 4.1 Reservoir-induced Hujiaping Earthquake in the Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir Region

In this paper,based on the collected data and earthquake field investigation,characteristics of the MS4.1 Hujiaping earthquake of November 22,2008 at Guizhou town in Zigui county,Hubei Province and the geological and hydrogeological conditions and seismicity background of the area are analyzed,and the earthquake disaster is presented. Some scientific issues relating to earthquake precursors and the cause of the earthquake is discussed. The authors consider that the earthquake is a tectonic type reservoir-induced earthquake,occurring along the Xiannvshan fault under the joint action of reservoir water loading and water infiltration,and that there were certain suspected anomalies appearing in the gravity field before the earthquake. The cause of the earthquake may also be related to the effect of the Wenchuan earthquake on the local stress field.

Finite element investigation of the poroelastic effect on the Xinfengjiang Reservoir-triggered earthquake

Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) are used in the study of reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) generation.The threshold value of ΔCFS that can trigger earthquakes is an important issue that deserves thorough research.The M s 6.1 earthquake in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir in 1962 is well acknowledged as the largest reservoir-induced earthquake in China.Therefore, it is a logical site for quantitative calculation of ΔCFS induced by the filling of the reservoir and for investigating the magnitude of CFS that can trigger reservoir seismic activities.To better understand the RIS mechanism, a three-dimensional poroelastic finite element model of the Xinfengjiang Reservoir is proposed here, taking into consideration of the precise topography and dynamic water level.We calculate the instant changes of stress and pore pressure induced by water load, and the time variation of effective stresses due to pore water diffusion.The CFS on the seismogenesis faults and the accumulation of strain energy in the reservoir region are also calculated.Primary results suggest that the reservoir impoundment increases both pore pressure and CFS on the fault at the focal depth.The diffusion of pore pressure was likely the main factor that triggered the main earthquake, whereas the elastic stress owing to water load was relatively small.The magnitude of CFS on seismogenesis fault can reach approximately 10 kPa, and the ΔCFS values at the hypocenter can be about 0.7-3.0 kPa, depending on the fault diffusion coefficient.The calculated maximum vertical subsidence caused by the water load in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir is 17.5 mm, which is in good agreement with the observed value of 15 mm.The accumulated strain energy owing to water load was only about 7.3×10 11 J, even less than 1% of the seismic wave energy released by the earthquake.The reservoir impoundment was the only factor that triggered the earthquake.

Influences of the Three Gorges Project on seismic activities in the reservoir area

Reservoir-induced earthquakes related with the construction of the Three Gorges Project have attracted great concerns of the public. Since the first water impoundment on May 25, 2003, a number of earthquakes have occurred during the water storage stages, in which the largest was the Badong M5.1 earthquake on December 16, 2013. In this paper, the relationships between seismic activities, b value, seismic parameters, and reservoir water level fluctuations are studied. In addition, based on the digital seismic waveform data obtained since 2000, the focal depth changes and focal mechanism characteristics before and after the water impoundment are studied as well. These provide us important information to understand the earthquake mechanisms. The results show that these earthquakes are typical reservoir-induced earthquakes, which are closely related to water infiltration, pore pressure, and water level fluctuations.The majority of the micro and small earthquakes are caused by karst collapse, mine collapse, bank reformation, superficial unloading, and so on. The larger earthquakes are related to the fault structures to some extent. Due to the persistent effects of water impoundment on the seismic and geological environments around the reservoir and water infiltration into the rocks, the influences on the crustal deformation field, gravity field, seepage field, and fault medium-softening action may vary gradually from a higher strength to a weaker one. Therefore, it is possible that small earthquakes and few medium earthquakes(M≤5.5) will occur in the reservoir area in the future.