Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and...Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system′s behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system′s environmental and socio economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.展开更多
This paper presents a case study that demonstrates how models can be used to support water management decisions before sufficient data to verify the model are available. In developing areas, and for new reservoirs, ex...This paper presents a case study that demonstrates how models can be used to support water management decisions before sufficient data to verify the model are available. In developing areas, and for new reservoirs, extensive data for model calibration and validation are often not available. As a case study we developed a CE-QUAL-W2 model of Aguamilpa Reservoir using minimal data and used the model to create a data acquisition plan to support early planning decisions. We based the model on a two-year period and compared the model results to data recently collected with our acquisition plan. We present how we developed and used the model to design the data acquisition plan which identifies and collects data to update and calibrate the model to support future decisions. We show that a minimally calibrated model based on scarce data can support management decisions and be the first step in a spiral engineering approach to system management. Spiral engineering uses models and data to both support early decisions and to iteratively improve this information to support subsequent decisions and models. This case study can be used as a guide for developing water quality models with minimal data and uses the models to support early decision requirements.展开更多
文摘Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system′s behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system′s environmental and socio economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.
文摘This paper presents a case study that demonstrates how models can be used to support water management decisions before sufficient data to verify the model are available. In developing areas, and for new reservoirs, extensive data for model calibration and validation are often not available. As a case study we developed a CE-QUAL-W2 model of Aguamilpa Reservoir using minimal data and used the model to create a data acquisition plan to support early planning decisions. We based the model on a two-year period and compared the model results to data recently collected with our acquisition plan. We present how we developed and used the model to design the data acquisition plan which identifies and collects data to update and calibrate the model to support future decisions. We show that a minimally calibrated model based on scarce data can support management decisions and be the first step in a spiral engineering approach to system management. Spiral engineering uses models and data to both support early decisions and to iteratively improve this information to support subsequent decisions and models. This case study can be used as a guide for developing water quality models with minimal data and uses the models to support early decision requirements.
