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水文-水动力学模型分析山丘区洪水风险 被引量:3
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作者 郝振智 桑国庆 +1 位作者 王海军 刘驰 《济南大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 北大核心 2023年第5期527-534,544,共9页
为了更好地分析山丘区洪水淹没风险,以界河流域为例,提出一种基于水文-水动力学模型的山丘区洪水风险分析方法;以整个流域为计算单元,局部网格加密处理,根据实测降雨洪峰数据对水文-水动力学模型进行验证,利用该模型计算不同降雨频率时... 为了更好地分析山丘区洪水淹没风险,以界河流域为例,提出一种基于水文-水动力学模型的山丘区洪水风险分析方法;以整个流域为计算单元,局部网格加密处理,根据实测降雨洪峰数据对水文-水动力学模型进行验证,利用该模型计算不同降雨频率时洪水淹没范围,并结合层次分析法进行洪水风险分析。结果表明:50 a一遇、100 a一遇降雨频率时界河流域洪水淹没面积分别为3.22、5.04 km^(2),最大综合风险性指数分别为15.45、49.41;风险区均沿河道方向狭长分布,垂直河道方向延伸较少;模拟河道洪峰流量与实测河道洪峰流量误差小于10%,可准确模拟山丘区洪水淹没情况。 展开更多
关键词 洪水模拟 洪水风险 水文-水动力学模型 界河流域
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基于水文-水力学耦合的辽河中游河道洪水预报及不确定性分析 被引量:6
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作者 董湃 《水利技术监督》 2018年第5期165-167,183,共4页
文章对辽河中游干流内主要支流和干流的洪水演算采用MIKE11水动力学模型进行预报,而流域上游及区间的入流预报采用新安江模型,并以此构建辽河中游河道用水预报分析方案。结合2000—2015年期间的典型洪水场次实测资料,分别对模型参数和... 文章对辽河中游干流内主要支流和干流的洪水演算采用MIKE11水动力学模型进行预报,而流域上游及区间的入流预报采用新安江模型,并以此构建辽河中游河道用水预报分析方案。结合2000—2015年期间的典型洪水场次实测资料,分别对模型参数和系数采用SCE-UA法进行验证和率定,采用HUP法对耦合模型预测结果的不确定性进行定量分析。研究表明:所构建的洪水预报模型的不确定程度较低并具有较高的精确性和可靠性;相关成果可为相似流域的洪水预报及防洪减灾措施的制定提供决策依据和理论支持。 展开更多
关键词 水文-力学耦合 洪水预报 MIKE11模型 SCE-UA 新安江模型
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山前小流域水文—水力学耦合洪水预报研究 被引量:8
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作者 孙映宏 姬战生 +1 位作者 向小华 吴晓玲 《水利水电技术》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第11期9-13,共5页
为了提高受人类活动影响显著的小流域洪水预报精度,以浙江省杭州市东苕溪流域为研究对象,分别以半分布式新安江模型、平原区水文模型、分洪区水动力模型以及一维河网模型模拟山区、平原区、分洪区以及河道的洪水过程,在卡尔曼滤波实时... 为了提高受人类活动影响显著的小流域洪水预报精度,以浙江省杭州市东苕溪流域为研究对象,分别以半分布式新安江模型、平原区水文模型、分洪区水动力模型以及一维河网模型模拟山区、平原区、分洪区以及河道的洪水过程,在卡尔曼滤波实时校正技术的支持下,建立流域水文—水力学耦合预报模型。通过对1996年以来瓶窑站典型洪水进行率定和验证,表明该模型符合东苕溪预报的精度要求。在2012年"海葵"台风的实时预报应用中,该模型发挥了辅助决策的作用,可作为后期防汛决策的参考。 展开更多
关键词 水文-力学耦合模型 洪水预报 实时校正 卡尔曼滤波
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湄公河-洞里萨湖河湖关系与水文情势驱动响应研究——关键科学问题与技术实现路径 被引量:4
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作者 李昌文 黄艳 《人民长江》 北大核心 2022年第6期1-13,共13页
湄公河与洞里萨湖河湖关系是世界上著名江湖关系的典型代表,同时受上游来流、下游潮汐、区域风浪、洪泛区调蓄等影响,水情叠加互馈效应(遭遇、倒灌、补水、漫滩、顶托、调蓄)巨大,水文过程集成度高。从河湖水文情势变化规律、河湖耦合... 湄公河与洞里萨湖河湖关系是世界上著名江湖关系的典型代表,同时受上游来流、下游潮汐、区域风浪、洪泛区调蓄等影响,水情叠加互馈效应(遭遇、倒灌、补水、漫滩、顶托、调蓄)巨大,水文过程集成度高。从河湖水文情势变化规律、河湖耦合水文水动力学模型、河湖水量交换关系及水情驱动机制3个方面阐述了湄公河-洞里萨湖河湖关系与水文情势驱动响应机理研究进展,并研究了其关键科学问题与技术实现路径。结果表明:①湄公河与洞里萨湖水文-水动力作用机理复杂且尚不明晰,成为制约湄公河和洞里萨湖综合治理的瓶颈问题;②未来亟需加强研究的重点方向主要包括构建湄公河与洞里萨湖大型连通水网水文-水动力耦合模型,精细模拟河湖水情组合叠加效应的时空量演变特征,定量揭示洞里萨湖河湖互相转换特性,理清河湖交互规律的宏微观格局,定量评估径流、潮汐、风浪遭遇组合对河湖水量交换的影响量,阐明河湖水情-水动力条件-水通量交互-湖区水文节律的驱动机制和耦合协变响应规律,以及创建河湖水量交换关系内涵变化量与洞里萨湖全区域全过程水文情势变化量的定量关系知识图谱。研究成果对丰富江湖关系内涵、指导柬埔寨洪旱灾害应对、提高水文预报精度、确保河湖健康具有极其重要的科学理论意义和实践应用价值。 展开更多
关键词 河湖关系 河湖水量交换 驱动-响应机理 河湖耦合水文-水动力学模型 定量知识图谱 洞里萨湖 湄公河
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Applicability of Fractal Models in Estimating Soil Water Retention Characteristics from Particle-Size Distribution Data 被引量:8
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作者 LIU JIANLI and XU SHAOHUIInstitute of Soil Science, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China) 《Pedosphere》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2002年第4期301-308,共8页
Soil water retention characteristics are the key information required in hydrological modeling. Frac-tal models provide a practical alternative for indirectly estimating soil water retention characteristics frompartic... Soil water retention characteristics are the key information required in hydrological modeling. Frac-tal models provide a practical alternative for indirectly estimating soil water retention characteristics fromparticle-size distribution data. Predictive capabilities of three fractal models, i.e, Tyler-Wheatcraft model,Rieu-Sposito model, and Brooks-Corey model, were fully evaluated in this work using experimental datafrom an international database and literature. Particle-size distribution data were firstly interpolated into20 classes using a van Genuchten-type equation. Fractal dimensions of the tortuous pore wall and the poresurface were then calculated from the detailed particle-size distribution and incorporated as a parameter infractal water retention models. Comparisons between measured and model-estimated water retention cha-racteristics indicated that these three models were applicable to relatively different soil textures and pressurehead ranges. Tyler-Wheatcraft and Brooks-Corey models led to reasonable agreements for both coarse- andmedium-textured soils, while the latter showed applicability to a broader texture range. In contrast, Rieu-Sposito model was more suitable for fine-textured soils. Fractal models produced a better estimation of watercontents at low pressure heads than at high pressure heads. 展开更多
关键词 fractal model particle-size distribution soil water retention characteristics
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The Development of a Physical Conservation Fidelity Global Spectral Model-From Dynamic Framework to a Full Model 被引量:1
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作者 ZHONG Qi ZHONG Qing 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2008年第1期33-35,共3页
The fidelity scheme of physical conservation laws has been applied in the dynamic framework of a global spectral model. In this study, a set of diabatic physical processes are also involved. Based on six 30-day numeri... The fidelity scheme of physical conservation laws has been applied in the dynamic framework of a global spectral model. In this study, a set of diabatic physical processes are also involved. Based on six 30-day numerical integrations of real-time data, we show that the full model is able to reproduce the primary features of global energy cycle and hydrological distribution. Additionally, the root-mean-square error is dramatically decreased when diabatic processes are considered. Another advantage is that the false structure of "double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)" is not seen in the result, although the orecioitation rate becomes lower. 展开更多
关键词 fidelity of physical conservation laws spec-tral model energy cycle systematic error
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NUMERICAL GEODYNAMIC MODELLING OF COUPLED MECHANO-THERMO-HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES AND ITS APPLICATION IN PREDICTIVE EXPLORATION IN THE FENGHUANGSHAN ORE FIELD, TONGLING 被引量:1
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作者 LIU Liangming PENG Shenglin ZHANG Yanhua 《Geotectonica et Metallogenia》 2005年第2期164-173,共10页
Mineralisation is the result of the coupled multi-geodynamic processes in the crust. The coupled mechano-thermo-hydrological (MTH) processes are the basic physical processes that govern the location of the hydrother... Mineralisation is the result of the coupled multi-geodynamic processes in the crust. The coupled mechano-thermo-hydrological (MTH) processes are the basic physical processes that govern the location of the hydrothermal mineralization, which can be simulated in the computer by using of the numerical codes, such as FLAC. The numerical modeling results can be used not only to explain the features of existing ore deposits, but also to predict the fhvorable mineralization locations. This paper has summarized the basic equations describing coupled MHT processes in the water-saturated porous rocks, the principles of FLAC, and its application to the MHT processes related to copper mineralization in the Fenghuangshan ore field. We used the FLAC to simulate the syn-deformation cooling and fluid flowing evolution after the intrusion was emplaced and solidified. The modeling results suggest a most prospective exploration area where the subsequent exploration supported the prediction and the test bore hole disclosed the high quality copper ore bodies in the target, demonstrating a positive role of the numerical MTH modeling in facilitating predictive ore discovery. 展开更多
关键词 mechano-thermo-hydrological coupling geodynamics numerical modeling mineral prediction Fenghuangshan
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With the Measuring Rod against the Floods: Ferdinand Verbiest and His Forgotten Introduction of Benedetto Castelli’s River Hydraulics to China
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作者 Albert KOENIG Sabine KINK 《Chinese Annals of History of Science and Technology》 2022年第2期49-119,共71页
The monumental Studies to Fathom Principles(Qiongli xue窮理學;1683)by Ferdinand Verbiest S.J.(Nan Huairen南懷仁,1623–1688)was never printed,and its exact content is not known.A section of the only extant,though incom... The monumental Studies to Fathom Principles(Qiongli xue窮理學;1683)by Ferdinand Verbiest S.J.(Nan Huairen南懷仁,1623–1688)was never printed,and its exact content is not known.A section of the only extant,though incomplete,manuscript deals with fluvial flood prevention and river control measures,a subject that until then had not cropped up in any Chinese-language work of the Jesuits.In this section,Verbiest not only described the already well-known Aristotelian theory of the origin of rivers,but also introduced to China new scientific propositions,concepts,and numerical examples originating from the seminal Renaissance work Della misura dell’acque correnti(Of the Mensuration of Running Waters;1628)by Benedetto Castelli(1578–1643).In addition,Verbiest presented to his readers some noteworthy examples of pertinent Western achievements such as the pound-lock with miter gate,and he provided them with a simple economic analysis of flood control options.The significance and possible influence of Verbiest’s text on further developments in Chinese approaches to water engineering are discussed,highlighting a hitherto largely disregarded facet of Western science and technology transfer in the field of river hydraulics and flood management. 展开更多
关键词 Ferdinand Verbiest Benedetto Castelli Qiongli xue Della misura dell’acque correnti HYDROLOGY river hydraulics flood prevention Kangxi period
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Influence of drainage of aquifer on settling of ground surface in mining area with high ground water level
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作者 WANG Zhi-rong CHEN Ling-xia YANG Zhan-jun 《Journal of Coal Science & Engineering(China)》 2010年第3期296-299,共4页
Based on the basic principles of hydrogeology and soil mechanics, studied thegenesis mechanism and control factors of settling of ground surface caused by the drainageof the aquifer in the construction of coal mines, ... Based on the basic principles of hydrogeology and soil mechanics, studied thegenesis mechanism and control factors of settling of ground surface caused by the drainageof the aquifer in the construction of coal mines, and put forward a corresponding calculatingmodel demonstrated by practical example.The study provides mining areas,which are covered with a very thick Quaternary soil layer and abundant ground water, witha theoretical basis aimed at forecasting the settling of ground surface. 展开更多
关键词 drainage of aquifer settling of ground surface gravity stress permeation stress
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The standards for skill assessment of operational marine forecast system
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作者 张爱军 范文静 纪风颖 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2007年第1期27-35,共9页
To support navigational and environmental applications in coastal waters, marine opera- tional forecast models must be developed and implemented. A forecast model must guarantee that it is scientifically sound and pra... To support navigational and environmental applications in coastal waters, marine opera- tional forecast models must be developed and implemented. A forecast model must guarantee that it is scientifically sound and practically robust for performance and must meet or excel all target frequencies or durations before being released to the public. This paper discusses the standard policies and procedures for evaluation of operational marine forecast models. The primary variables to be evaluated are water lev- els, currents and water density (water temperature and salinity). 展开更多
关键词 skill assessment hydrodynamic models FORECAST
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降雨滑坡多指标监测预警方法研究 被引量:42
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作者 杨宗佶 王礼勇 +3 位作者 石莉莉 付校龙 刘世皓 乔建平 《岩石力学与工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2020年第2期272-285,共14页
降雨滑坡是发生最频繁,损失最严重的地质灾害,但如何实现其准确预警仍是目前所面临的主要挑战。而探究降雨滑坡的物理机制是开展预警的关键突破口。结合典型震后滑坡5个水文年的长时间序列实时监测数据和非饱和水-力耦合分析方法,开展... 降雨滑坡是发生最频繁,损失最严重的地质灾害,但如何实现其准确预警仍是目前所面临的主要挑战。而探究降雨滑坡的物理机制是开展预警的关键突破口。结合典型震后滑坡5个水文年的长时间序列实时监测数据和非饱和水-力耦合分析方法,开展都江堰银洞子沟滑坡现场实测数据的物理机制研究及长时间序列边坡稳定性分析。基于非饱和边坡稳定性分析方法,结合长时间序列实测大数据的实时计算和分析,提出基于降雨强度-概率(I-P)、饱和度、基质吸力、地表倾斜角度和稳定性实时计算分析的多参数指标预警方法体系,基于多参数预警体系和实时监测数据,分别于2017年8月和2018年6月在银洞子沟两次实现成功临灾预警,成功临灾预警实例验证了多参数阈值预警模型的可靠性和实用性,研究旨在为降雨型滑坡的准确预警提供新的参考和预警模式。 展开更多
关键词 边坡工程 降雨型滑坡 水文-力学 多参数阈值 监测预警 成功预警案例
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基于现代高新信息技术的小流域山洪预报系统建设
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作者 潘晓彬 《水利科技》 2019年第1期1-4,9,共5页
小流域山洪灾害严重,监测预警预报难,进一步精准小流域山洪监测预警预报将有助于提升小流域山洪灾害综合防御能力。该文分析目前我国小流域山洪灾害特点及监测预警预报技术现状,提出基于无人机航测及倾斜摄影技术和水文-水动力学模型技... 小流域山洪灾害严重,监测预警预报难,进一步精准小流域山洪监测预警预报将有助于提升小流域山洪灾害综合防御能力。该文分析目前我国小流域山洪灾害特点及监测预警预报技术现状,提出基于无人机航测及倾斜摄影技术和水文-水动力学模型技术的小流域山洪预报系统,并应用于泉州梅溪小流域山洪预报系统建设中,以期为当前全国小流域山洪监测预警预报系统建设和山洪灾害防治提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 倾斜摄影 水文-水动力学模型 山洪灾害 小流域
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