综合分析了外界干扰下的塔里木河流域生态水流情势,采用组合回归模型建立了适应生态变化的水流利用关系,修正了水文-生态响应关系和生态水流估算结果,进一步讨论了适应生态过程的水流情势利用策略。结果表明:自20世纪60年代以来,塔里木...综合分析了外界干扰下的塔里木河流域生态水流情势,采用组合回归模型建立了适应生态变化的水流利用关系,修正了水文-生态响应关系和生态水流估算结果,进一步讨论了适应生态过程的水流情势利用策略。结果表明:自20世纪60年代以来,塔里木河源流与干流水流情势变化不一致,源流来水保证率递减,源流区间耗水量呈增加趋势。相比ARMA(auto-regressive and moving average)模型,基于不同利用方式的生态水流组合回归模型模拟效果较好,可作为参考性预报;结合生态水流预测方程,制定了适应生态的水量调度对策。展开更多
Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 ...Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.展开更多
文摘综合分析了外界干扰下的塔里木河流域生态水流情势,采用组合回归模型建立了适应生态变化的水流利用关系,修正了水文-生态响应关系和生态水流估算结果,进一步讨论了适应生态过程的水流情势利用策略。结果表明:自20世纪60年代以来,塔里木河源流与干流水流情势变化不一致,源流来水保证率递减,源流区间耗水量呈增加趋势。相比ARMA(auto-regressive and moving average)模型,基于不同利用方式的生态水流组合回归模型模拟效果较好,可作为参考性预报;结合生态水流预测方程,制定了适应生态的水量调度对策。
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40830535, 41001110, 41101092, 41171092)National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2010CB951304)the CAS/SAFEA (Chinese Academy of Sciences/State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs) International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams, Eleventh Five-Year' Key Technological Projects of Heilongjiang Province Farm Bureau (No. HNK10A-10-01, HNK10A-10-03)
文摘Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.
