水量平衡与能量平衡模式下的VIC模型在喀什河流域的应用研究

【目的】寻找合适的拟合模式。【方法】以天山西部山区的喀什河流域为研究区,基于1990―2000年的水文气象站点实测资料和同时间段的CFSR再分析数据,通过VIC模型模拟日和月时间尺度下水量平衡和能量平衡2种模式的径流过程,并分析了研究区内2种模式下空间分布差异较大的水文要素。【结果】在日和月时间尺度下,能量平衡模式的径流模拟效果在模型的率定期与验证期均优于水量平衡模式;依据实际气候和地理条件,因为缺乏对降雨和降雪的条件判断,并且未能够考虑到冰冻圈层对产汇流的影响,致使水量平衡模式不能够详细合理地解释水文要素的空间分布特点与差异性。【结论】总体而言,VIC模型能量平衡模式能够更好地模拟研究区径流过程及水文要素的空间分布特征。

雨水径流截集试验与集水量计算模式的分析研究

通过雨水径流截集试验研究，初步明确了四种防渗处理集流下垫面的单位面积造价、适用范围条件及其集流效率与降水特性、集流面坡度以及防渗材料种类的定性定量关系。分析研究结果：集水量计算模式的一般形式Ｐ０ｉ＝Ｅｉ·Ｐｉ；各时段内的实际总集水量Ｑｉ＝ａ·∑ｎｉ＝１Ｐ０ｉ。建议在今后应继续试验发掘出集流效率高、价格低廉且处理方便的材料、方法或处理措施，弄清其集水特征，以便建立形式多样、更为经济有效的人工集流场，最大限度截集天然降水。

遥控式消防车水量控制模式

介绍的遥控消防车水量控制模式是一种较实用的模式 ,该控制模式采用性能稳定的遥控专用发射和接收电路模块以及专用的编码和解码芯片 ,提高了控制的稳定性。

VIC模型在西北干旱半干旱地区的应用研究

以黑河莺落峡流域为例,分析了陆面模式VIC能量平衡模式与水量平衡模式在干旱、半干旱地区水文模拟的适用性。实例结果表明,在干旱、半干旱地区,能量平衡模式比水量平衡模式的模型模拟效果更好,对实际蒸发的计算精度更高。

黄河流域土壤水资源评估

应用区域水量平衡模式计算了黄河全流域、上、中、下游地区和西北黄河区的土壤水资源量。全流域土壤水资源量多年平均为2681.4亿m3,占降水量的81.5%,是水资源总量的4.47倍。西北黄河区的土壤水资源量为2436.8亿m3,占全流域的土壤水资源量的90.9%,占降水量的81%,是水资源总量的4.27倍。黄河流域土壤水资源量是水资源重要组成部分,是极宝贵的农业水资源。

Influence of Different Irrigation Models and Amounts on Jujube under Jujube-cotton intercropping

[Objective] The aim was to explore the differences of jujube growth by intercropping with cotton and mono-cropping and to research effects of three irrigation models and quantity on jujube. [Method] The field experiment with three factors and two levels were applied for the study in order to research the effect of all treatments with the yield, quality, bearing branch, flower, fruit diameter of jujube. [Result]With different irrigation patterns, the result of comparing the length of bearing branch was drip irrigation furrow irrigation micro spray, and the result of comparing the number of bearing branch, the bud number, the flower number, fruit diameter was the same, as follows： drip irrigation microjet irrigation furrow irrigation; the result of comparing the yield was drip irrigation furrow irrigation microjet irrigation with significant differences. With different irrigation quantities, high irrigation water quantity treatment was proved higher than low irrigation quantity treatment in every survey index. [Conclusion] The analysis indicates that drip irrigation, microjet irrigation and furrow irrigation increased the irrigation water quantity can significantly promote the growth and the yield of jujube and the effects of the three kinds of irrigation patterns are drip irrigation furrow irrigation microjet irrigation.

蒲州水源地地下水数值模拟研究

采用地下水水量模型对蒲州水源地进行数值模拟评价,结果表明:模型可靠性高、参数合理,并求得水源地最佳开采方案,为同类研究提供了有价值的参考。

VIC模型在季节性冻土区水文模拟适用性研究

为了探讨VIC(Variable infiltration capacity)水文模型在季节性冻土区水文模拟中的适用性,以大凌河复兴堡站以上流域为研究区,构建了考虑能量平衡模式的VIC大尺度水文模型,评价了VIC模型在东北季节性冻土区水文模拟的适用性,并对不考虑能量平衡模式的水文模拟进行了比较分析。结果表明,考虑能量平衡模式的VIC模型率定期和验证期径流模拟效率系数在0.63以上,相对误差在6.0%以内。与不考虑能量平衡模式的水文过程模拟差异性比较显示,考虑了能量平衡模式的VIC模型可以更好地刻画由于冻土冻融过程引起的径流变化特征,模拟的土壤含水量和蒸散发量的空间分布特征更加合理。

Regional Climate Change and Uncertainty Analysis based on Four Regional Climate Model Simulations over China

Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.

Century-long variability and trends in daily precipitation characteristics at three Finnish stations

Long-term variations and trends in a wide range of statistics for daily precipitation characteristics in terms of intensity, frequency and duration in Finland were analysed using precipitation records during 1908e2008 from 3 meteorological stations in the south(Kaisaniemi),centre(Kajaani) and north(Sodankyl€a). Although precipitation days in northern part were more frequent than in central and southern parts, daily precipitation intensity in the south was generally higher than those in the centre and north of the country. Annual sum of very light precipitation(0 mm < daily precipitation long-term 50 th percentile of daily precipitation more than 0 mm) significantly( p < 0.05) decreased over time,with the highest rate in northern Finland. These decreasing trends might be the result of significant increases in frequency of days with very light precipitation at all the stations, with the highest and lowest rates in northern and southern Finland, respectively. Ratio of annual total precipitation to number of precipitation days also declined in Finland over 1908e2008, with a decreasing north to south gradient. However, annual duration indices of daily precipitation revealed no statistically significant trends at any station. Daily precipitation characteristics showed significant relationships with various well-known atmospheric circulation patterns(ACPs). In particular, the East Atlantic/West Russia(EA/WR)pattern in summer was the most influential ACP negatively associated with different daily precipitation intensity, frequency and duration indices at all three stations studied.

Development of neutron moisture gauge in China

According to measuring mode (in-hopper,surface,transmitted and scattered neutron moisture gauge),this paper introduced the development and application of neutron moisture gauge in China since 1970s.

Effects of the Percolation Patterns and the Thickness of Soil Dressing on Reducing Cadmium Uptake and and Yields of Rice Plants （Oryza Sativa L.）

The objective of this study is to clarify the effects of the thickness of soil dressing, the percolation patterns of plowsole and subsoil on reducing cadmium （Cd） uptake, and growth and yields of rice plants. Six stratified paddy field models, three patterns of soil dressing layer and two percolation patterns were used for the experiments. These models had 12.5 cm, 15.0 cm and 25.0 cm thickness of soil dressing layer and 15 cm thickness of underlying polluted soil layer, whose Cd concentration was about 1.81 mg·kg^-1. As a result Cd concentration of brown rice was lower than 0.04 mg·kg^-1 for the models with the close system percolation, while that in the open system percolation models were lower than 0.17 mg.kgl.When the thickness of soil dressing became lower, Cd concentrations with the open system percolation models showed significantly higher values than those of the other models （5% of significant level）. But any significant difference was not found in the growth and yield among these models. As above mentioned, it was found that Cd concentration in rice grains was affected by the thickness of soil dressing and percolation patterns.

Change in Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5

The changes in a selection of extreme climate indices(maximum of daily maximum temperature(TXx),minimum of daily minimum temperature(TNn),annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation(very wet days,R95p),and the maximum number of consecutive days with less than 1 mm of precipitation(consecutive dry days,CDD))were projected using multi-model results from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in the early,middle,and latter parts of the 21st century under different Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emissions scenarios.The results suggest that TXx and TNn will increase in the future and,moreover,the increases of TNn under all RCPs are larger than those of TXx.R95p is projected to increase and CDD to decrease significantly.The changes in TXx,TNn,R95p,and CDD in eight sub-regions of China are different in the three periods of the 21st century,and the ranges of change for the four indices under the higher emissions scenario are projected to be larger than those under the lower emissions scenario.The multi-model simulations show remarkable consistency in their projection of the extreme temperature indices,but poor consistency with respect to the extreme precipitation indices.More substantial inconsistency is found in those regions where high and low temperatures are likely to happen for TXx and TNn,respectively.For extreme precipitation events(R95p),greater uncertainty appears in most of the southern regions,while for drought events(CDD)it appears in the basins of Xinjiang.The uncertainty in the future changes of the extreme climate indices increases with the increasing severity of the emissions scenario.

Full 2D Hydrodynamic Modelling of Rainfall-induced Flash Floods

Mountain catchments are prone to flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Enhanced understanding of the generation and evolution processes of flash floods is essential for effective flood risk management. However, traditional distributed hydrological models based on kinematic and diffusion wave approximations ignore certain physical mechanisms of flash floods and thus bear excessive uncertainty. Here a hydrodynamic model is presented for flash floods based on the full two-dimensional shallow water equations incorporating rainfall and infiltration. Laboratory experiments of overland flows were modelled to illustrate the capability of the model. Then the model was applied to resolve two observed flash floods of distinct magnitudes in the Lengkou catchment in Shanxi Province, China. The present model is shown to be able to reproduce the flood flows fairly well compared to the observed data. The spatial distribution of rainfall is shown to be crucial for the modelling of flash floods. Sensitivity analyses of the model parameters reveal that the stage and discharge hydrographs are more sensitive to the Manning roughness and initial water content in the catchment than to the Green-Ampt head. Most notably, as the flash flood augments due to heavier rainfall, the modelling results agree with observed data better, which clearly characterizes the paramount role of rainfall in dictating the floods. From practical perspectives, the proposed model is more appropriate for modelling large flash floods.

Combined Effect of Nutrient and Pest Managements on Substrate Utilization Pattern of Soil Microbial Population in Hybrid Rice Cropping System

A field experiment was conducted to study the combined effect of nutrient andpest managements on soil biomass phospholipid contents, functional biodiversity and substrateutilization patterns of soil microbial populations in hybrid rice cropping system. The mineral N, Pand K fertilizers (as urea, calcium superphosphate and KCl respectively) were incorporated at 100,25, and 100 kg ha^(-1), respectively, and the various pesticides were applied at the recommendedrates. The results of the experiment demonstrated a decline in the microbial abundance and soilmicrobial biomass phospholipid contents with the advancement of crop growth, and significant changesin substrate utilization pattern of soil microbial population studied were observed with differentmanagement practices and at different growth stages. The principal component analysis (PCA) usingall 95-carbon sources (BIOLOG plates) gave good differentiation among the treatments, indicatingthat they have different patterns of carbon utilization under different habitats. The data showedthat diversity in microbial community continuously changed with the progression in crop stage,particularly at physiological maturity (PM) stage that was evident from the utilization of differentcarbon sources at various crop stages.

Analysis of interaction between surface and sewer pipe system based on computational fluid dynamics

To verify the accuracy of weir and orifice formula and analyze the hydraulic characteristics of exchange flow in a manhole,a three-dimensional numerical model was proposed to assess the exchange flow rate between the surface and sewer pipe systems based on the real-world scale model.The hydrodynamic model is based on the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations including the standard k-εmodel for turbulence processes,and the volume of fluid(VOF)method for capturing the free surface.The results of the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)simulation are compared with the conventional overflow equations,showing that the weir and orifice formula is appropriate to determine the exchange flow rate between two systems in this specific study case.Streamlines and velocity contours at the center profile under both the inflow and surcharge conditions show that the exchange flow is directly related to the water level on the surface and the junction area between the manhole and right pipe.The results demonstrate the potential application of CFD in analyzing the interaction of urban flood flows,which can provide much clearer details of the interaction process.

Impact of Climate Change on Regional Hydroclimate Projection in Peninsular Malaysia

For the assessment of the impact of future climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia, it is necessary to downscale the climate change simulations of a coarse scale General Circulation Model to the region of Peninsular Malaysia at fine grid resolution. This paper presents a desktop review of the state of climate change parameters, namely rainfall and river flow over the Peninsular Malaysia for the 2041-2050 projection period. Analysis of the results from the models shows there will be a substantial increase in mean monthly precipitation over the North East Coastal region from historical 259.5 mm to 281.5 mm, from 289.0 mm to 299.0 mm and 221.8 mm to 239.5 mm over Terengganu and Kelantan, respectively. Meanwhile, for river flow projection, it will be an expected increase in interannual and intraseasonal variability with increased hydrologic extremes （higher high flows, and lower low flows） at Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu, and Kedah watersheds in the future.

STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCING SYSTEMATIC ERRORS ON MONTHLY REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL FORECAST

A nested-model system is constructed by embedding the regional climate model RegCM3 into a general circulation model for monthly-scale regional climate forecast over East China. The systematic errors are formulated for the region on the basis of 10-yr (1991-2000) results of the nested-model system, and of the datasets of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the temperature analysis of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), U.S.A., which are then used for correcting the original forecast by the system for the period 2001-2005. After the assessment of the original and corrected forecasts for monthly precipitation and surface air temperature, it is found that the corrected forecast is apparently better than the original, suggesting that the approach can be applied for improving monthly-scale regional climate dynamical forecast.

The Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China under RCP Scenarios using a CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

Climate changes in 21st century China are described based on the projections of 11 climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results show that warming is expected in all regions of China under the RCP scenarios, with the northern regions showing greater warming than the southern regions. The warming tendency from 2011 to 2100 is 0.06°C/10 a for RCP2.6, 0.24°C/10 a for RCP4.5, and 0.63°C/10 a for RCP8.5. The projected time series of annual temperature have similar variation tendencies as the new greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario pathways, and the warming under the lower emission scenarios is less than under the higher emission scenarios. The regional averaged precipitation will increase, and the increasing precipitation in the northern regions is significant and greater than in the southern regions in China. It is noted that precipitation will tend to decrease in the southern parts of China during the period of 2011-2040, especially under RCP8.5. Compared with the changes over the globe and some previous projections, the increased warming and precipitation over China is more remarkable under the higher emission scenarios. The uncertainties in the projection are unavoidable, and further analyses are necessary to develop a better understanding of the future changes over the region.

Delayed Seasonal Transition of Tropical Wave Activity in the CMIP3 Global Climate Models

This study evaluates the seasonal cycle of the activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves(CCEWs),including mixed Rossby-gravity(MRG) and tropical depression-type(TD-type) waves,based on the twentieth century experiments of 18 global climate models(GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP3).The ensemble result of the 18 GCMs shows that the observed seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity cannot be well reproduced.The seasonal transition of wave activity from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere is delayed from April in the observations to May in the simulations,indicating that the simulated active season of tropical waves in the northern hemisphere is delayed and shortened.This delayed seasonal transition of tropical wave activity is associated with a delayed seasonal transition of simulated mean precipitation.The mean precipitation in April and May shows a double-ITCZ problem,and the horizontal resolution is important to the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity.Because of the coincident seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity and tropical cyclone(TC) geneses,the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity may imply a similar problem of TC genesis in the GCMs,namely,a delayed and shortened TC season in the northern hemisphere.