本文基于2000年1月到2008年12月的月度数据,使用VAR(Value at risk)模型对人民币汇率对CPI的影响进行分析。结果表明,人民币汇率变动无论在长期还是短期对CPI的影响都很微弱,货币政策制定者在考虑通胀问题时不必过高估计人民币汇率变动...本文基于2000年1月到2008年12月的月度数据,使用VAR(Value at risk)模型对人民币汇率对CPI的影响进行分析。结果表明,人民币汇率变动无论在长期还是短期对CPI的影响都很微弱,货币政策制定者在考虑通胀问题时不必过高估计人民币汇率变动的作用,但在长期要注意货币供给的流动性结构,同时可以适当实行更加有弹性的汇率形成机制。此外,不同于以往采用绝对量指标(M1或M2)的分析方法,本文站在结构分析视角,使用了货币供给的流动性指标(即M1占M2的比例)。展开更多
One of most challenging problems from applying the Black-Scholes model to financial derivatives, is reconciling the deviation between the expected and observed values. This study derives an extension of the Black-Scho...One of most challenging problems from applying the Black-Scholes model to financial derivatives, is reconciling the deviation between the expected and observed values. This study derives an extension of the Black-Scholes model and recovers the real drift of binary call options from their market prices. For space-dependent real drift, we obtain stable linearization and an integral equation. We also find that using market prices of options with different strike prices enables us to identify the term structure of the real drift. Results demonstrate that our new approach can confirm the existence of arbitrage opportunities in a binary option transaction.展开更多
Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchang...Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.展开更多
Textile industry is the biggest industry that gains foreign exchange through export in China, and the dependence rate of either export or import is high. RMB continuous appreciation brings China both chance and challe...Textile industry is the biggest industry that gains foreign exchange through export in China, and the dependence rate of either export or import is high. RMB continuous appreciation brings China both chance and challenge. On the one hand, it reduces the import cost of raw materials and equipments; on the other hand, it weakens the price advantage of textile industry in China; at the same time, it promotes the transformation and the integration of textile business enterprise.展开更多
Applying ＂General to Specific＂ （GETS） modeling and using PcGets software, this paper studies the relationship between inflation, money supply, output gap, the exchange rate and crude oil prices in China. The empir...Applying ＂General to Specific＂ （GETS） modeling and using PcGets software, this paper studies the relationship between inflation, money supply, output gap, the exchange rate and crude oil prices in China. The empirical study supports the view that a long-term positive correlation exists between inflation and money supply. However, inflation is not an entirely ＂monetary phenomenon. ＂In addition to money supply, other variables also affect inflation. Similarly, there is significant correlation between output gap and inflation. In addition, we cannot overlook the impact of exchange rates on inflation.展开更多
文摘本文基于2000年1月到2008年12月的月度数据,使用VAR(Value at risk)模型对人民币汇率对CPI的影响进行分析。结果表明,人民币汇率变动无论在长期还是短期对CPI的影响都很微弱,货币政策制定者在考虑通胀问题时不必过高估计人民币汇率变动的作用,但在长期要注意货币供给的流动性结构,同时可以适当实行更加有弹性的汇率形成机制。此外,不同于以往采用绝对量指标(M1或M2)的分析方法,本文站在结构分析视角,使用了货币供给的流动性指标(即M1占M2的比例)。
文摘One of most challenging problems from applying the Black-Scholes model to financial derivatives, is reconciling the deviation between the expected and observed values. This study derives an extension of the Black-Scholes model and recovers the real drift of binary call options from their market prices. For space-dependent real drift, we obtain stable linearization and an integral equation. We also find that using market prices of options with different strike prices enables us to identify the term structure of the real drift. Results demonstrate that our new approach can confirm the existence of arbitrage opportunities in a binary option transaction.
文摘Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.
文摘Textile industry is the biggest industry that gains foreign exchange through export in China, and the dependence rate of either export or import is high. RMB continuous appreciation brings China both chance and challenge. On the one hand, it reduces the import cost of raw materials and equipments; on the other hand, it weakens the price advantage of textile industry in China; at the same time, it promotes the transformation and the integration of textile business enterprise.
文摘Applying ＂General to Specific＂ （GETS） modeling and using PcGets software, this paper studies the relationship between inflation, money supply, output gap, the exchange rate and crude oil prices in China. The empirical study supports the view that a long-term positive correlation exists between inflation and money supply. However, inflation is not an entirely ＂monetary phenomenon. ＂In addition to money supply, other variables also affect inflation. Similarly, there is significant correlation between output gap and inflation. In addition, we cannot overlook the impact of exchange rates on inflation.
