This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. Th...This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. This paper uses two statistical regression methods including Logistic model and Linear model to examine the inner interaction between financial ratios and future earnings from qualitative and quantitative perspectives respectively. Empirical tests find that financial ratios, especially ROE, can help to predict future earnings. Then we add auditor opinion variable into Logistic model to test whether going concern opinion in the auditor reports can be helpful for earnings forecast. Result shows the degree of optimistic statement of going concern opinion is significantly correlated with future earnings but with the disturbance of earnings management.展开更多
Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. A number of non-linear business cy...Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. A number of non-linear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Chaotic systems exhibit a sensitive dependence on initial conditions： Seemingly insignificant changes in the initial conditions produce large differences in outcomes. The basic aim of this analysis is to provide a relatively simple chaotic real-exchange-rate growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos.展开更多
After joining the World Trade Organization （WTO）, China has intensified market-oriented reforms in the renminbi exchange rate, foreign trade, utilization of foreign funds, and foreign-related economic laws etc. In t...After joining the World Trade Organization （WTO）, China has intensified market-oriented reforms in the renminbi exchange rate, foreign trade, utilization of foreign funds, and foreign-related economic laws etc. In terms of ownership structure, a move from state-owned asset management system policies toward non-publiclyowned enterprises has been undertaken. In addition, China has proactively reformed the government administration system.展开更多
This paper looks at forecasting daily exchange rates for the United Kingdom, European Union, and China. Here, the authors evaluate the forecasting performance of neural networks （NN）, vector singular spectrum analys...This paper looks at forecasting daily exchange rates for the United Kingdom, European Union, and China. Here, the authors evaluate the forecasting performance of neural networks （NN）, vector singular spectrum analysis （VSSA）, and recurrent singular spectrum analysis （RSSA） for fore casting exchange rates in these countries. The authors find statistically significant evidence based on the RMSE, that both VSSA and RSSA models outperform NN at forecasting the highly unpredictable exchange rates for China. However, the authors find no evidence to suggest any difference between the forecasting accuracy of the three models for UK and EU exchange rates.展开更多
基金This paper is sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.70172023） and Education Department of China （01JA630019）. The author is grateful to Prof. Minghai Wei of Sun Yat-sen University and Prof.
文摘This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. This paper uses two statistical regression methods including Logistic model and Linear model to examine the inner interaction between financial ratios and future earnings from qualitative and quantitative perspectives respectively. Empirical tests find that financial ratios, especially ROE, can help to predict future earnings. Then we add auditor opinion variable into Logistic model to test whether going concern opinion in the auditor reports can be helpful for earnings forecast. Result shows the degree of optimistic statement of going concern opinion is significantly correlated with future earnings but with the disturbance of earnings management.
文摘Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. A number of non-linear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Chaotic systems exhibit a sensitive dependence on initial conditions： Seemingly insignificant changes in the initial conditions produce large differences in outcomes. The basic aim of this analysis is to provide a relatively simple chaotic real-exchange-rate growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos.
文摘After joining the World Trade Organization （WTO）, China has intensified market-oriented reforms in the renminbi exchange rate, foreign trade, utilization of foreign funds, and foreign-related economic laws etc. In terms of ownership structure, a move from state-owned asset management system policies toward non-publiclyowned enterprises has been undertaken. In addition, China has proactively reformed the government administration system.
基金supported by a grant from Payame Noor University,Tehran-Iran
文摘This paper looks at forecasting daily exchange rates for the United Kingdom, European Union, and China. Here, the authors evaluate the forecasting performance of neural networks （NN）, vector singular spectrum analysis （VSSA）, and recurrent singular spectrum analysis （RSSA） for fore casting exchange rates in these countries. The authors find statistically significant evidence based on the RMSE, that both VSSA and RSSA models outperform NN at forecasting the highly unpredictable exchange rates for China. However, the authors find no evidence to suggest any difference between the forecasting accuracy of the three models for UK and EU exchange rates.
