Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 t...Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 to examine the combined effects of capital account openness and exchange rate risks on economic growth. Our findings are as follows:(1) Without considering exchange rate volatility, capital account openness is subject to a threshold effect, i.e. capital account openness significantly promotes the economic growth of middle-and high-income countries but exerts the opposite effect on low-income countries; and(2) after exchange rate volatility is taken into account, the growth effect of capital account openness is reduced and the greater the exchange rate volatility is, the smaller the marginal effect of capital account openness will be; sample-specific results also proved the existence of the threshold effect. This paper offers the following implications:(1) The effect of capital account openness can be better examined based on risk factors;(2) moderately controlling exchange rate volatility is conducive to acquiring greater benefits from capital account openness; and(3) the threshold effect of capital account openness cannot be overlooked.展开更多
China and other emerging market economies hoM large amounts of US dollar （USD）-denominated assets while their enterprises mainly raise funds from domestic banks. These economies＇currencies are under a constant pres...China and other emerging market economies hoM large amounts of US dollar （USD）-denominated assets while their enterprises mainly raise funds from domestic banks. These economies＇currencies are under a constant pressure to appreciate. The authors of this paper apply the model used in Bernanke et al. （1999） to small open economies in order to find out the optimal exchange rate regime for the emerging market economies. Findings indicate that a country＇s choice of exchange rate regime is directly associated with its percentage of USD-denominated assets and the strength of the financial accelerator effect. A managedfloating rate regime is more desirable than afreefloating regime because of its ability to better avoid liquidity traps given appreciation pressure. A managed floating rate regime also outperforms a fixed exchange rate regime because the former tends to cause less welfare loss. These factors make a managed floating rate regime the optimal choice for emerging market economies. Lastly, the authors propose policy steps and suggestions based specifically on China＇s current situation.展开更多
This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential im...This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential impacts of Renminbi appreciation on the export of finished goods and the import of intermediate inputs in each sector, and estimates the changes in profitability of each sector under different degrees of Renminbi appreciation. The results indicate that appreciation of the Renminbi will increase the profitability of 22 sectors, which are generally monopolistic, capital-intensive, and reliant on R＆D, and reduce the profitability of 20 sectors, which are generally competitive, labor-intensive, and less reliant on R＆D. This suggests that the degree and pace of Renminbi appreciation must be coordinated with industrial and employment policies in order to reduce exchange-rate risk exposure through trade restructuring, to improve economic structure, to promote competition and employment, and to maintain steady and sustainable economic growth.展开更多
China＇s recent declaration of principles on its exchange rate mechanism has made it very clear that any move should be on China＇s own initiative; such a move should be sustainable and under control. China has adopte...China＇s recent declaration of principles on its exchange rate mechanism has made it very clear that any move should be on China＇s own initiative; such a move should be sustainable and under control. China has adopted gradualism in the exchange rate reform process. On July 21st, 2005, China changed Renminbi （RMB） pariy （appreciation） by 2 percent, signaling the exchange market reform process. This paper is to study the past history of the crawling-peg of RMB on the US dollar with a view of its future reform. The flexibility provided by the crawling-peg still fits well with China＇s status quo. However, the flexible mechanism should follow the trend of China＇s economic development with well-timed parity changes. The extent of the fluctuation band rests upon China＇s ability to maintain its currency stability to counter future speculation and shocks. Only when the market mechanism is restored in China can an equilibrium RMB exchange rate be reached.展开更多
基金Key Project of the Social Sciences Foundation of China(Grant No.15ZDA014)Foundation for High-level Talents in Higher Education of Guangdong(Pearl River Scholar 1414003)Doctoral Start-Up Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong(2014A030310079)
文摘Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 to examine the combined effects of capital account openness and exchange rate risks on economic growth. Our findings are as follows:(1) Without considering exchange rate volatility, capital account openness is subject to a threshold effect, i.e. capital account openness significantly promotes the economic growth of middle-and high-income countries but exerts the opposite effect on low-income countries; and(2) after exchange rate volatility is taken into account, the growth effect of capital account openness is reduced and the greater the exchange rate volatility is, the smaller the marginal effect of capital account openness will be; sample-specific results also proved the existence of the threshold effect. This paper offers the following implications:(1) The effect of capital account openness can be better examined based on risk factors;(2) moderately controlling exchange rate volatility is conducive to acquiring greater benefits from capital account openness; and(3) the threshold effect of capital account openness cannot be overlooked.
文摘China and other emerging market economies hoM large amounts of US dollar （USD）-denominated assets while their enterprises mainly raise funds from domestic banks. These economies＇currencies are under a constant pressure to appreciate. The authors of this paper apply the model used in Bernanke et al. （1999） to small open economies in order to find out the optimal exchange rate regime for the emerging market economies. Findings indicate that a country＇s choice of exchange rate regime is directly associated with its percentage of USD-denominated assets and the strength of the financial accelerator effect. A managedfloating rate regime is more desirable than afreefloating regime because of its ability to better avoid liquidity traps given appreciation pressure. A managed floating rate regime also outperforms a fixed exchange rate regime because the former tends to cause less welfare loss. These factors make a managed floating rate regime the optimal choice for emerging market economies. Lastly, the authors propose policy steps and suggestions based specifically on China＇s current situation.
文摘This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential impacts of Renminbi appreciation on the export of finished goods and the import of intermediate inputs in each sector, and estimates the changes in profitability of each sector under different degrees of Renminbi appreciation. The results indicate that appreciation of the Renminbi will increase the profitability of 22 sectors, which are generally monopolistic, capital-intensive, and reliant on R＆D, and reduce the profitability of 20 sectors, which are generally competitive, labor-intensive, and less reliant on R＆D. This suggests that the degree and pace of Renminbi appreciation must be coordinated with industrial and employment policies in order to reduce exchange-rate risk exposure through trade restructuring, to improve economic structure, to promote competition and employment, and to maintain steady and sustainable economic growth.
基金This study is financed by the project of National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘China＇s recent declaration of principles on its exchange rate mechanism has made it very clear that any move should be on China＇s own initiative; such a move should be sustainable and under control. China has adopted gradualism in the exchange rate reform process. On July 21st, 2005, China changed Renminbi （RMB） pariy （appreciation） by 2 percent, signaling the exchange market reform process. This paper is to study the past history of the crawling-peg of RMB on the US dollar with a view of its future reform. The flexibility provided by the crawling-peg still fits well with China＇s status quo. However, the flexible mechanism should follow the trend of China＇s economic development with well-timed parity changes. The extent of the fluctuation band rests upon China＇s ability to maintain its currency stability to counter future speculation and shocks. Only when the market mechanism is restored in China can an equilibrium RMB exchange rate be reached.
