The Yangtze–Huai River Basin(YHRB)always suffers from anomalously heavy rainfall during the warm season,and has been well explored as a whole area during the past several decades.In this study,the YHRB is divided int...The Yangtze–Huai River Basin(YHRB)always suffers from anomalously heavy rainfall during the warm season,and has been well explored as a whole area during the past several decades.In this study,the YHRB is divided into two core regions-the northern YHRB(nYHRB)and southern YHRB(sYHRB)-based on 29-year(1979–2007)June–July–August(JJA)temporally averaged daily rainfall rates and the standard deviation of rainfall.A spectral analysis of JJA daily rainfall data over these 29 years reveals that a 3–7-day synoptic-timescale high-frequency mode is absolutely dominant over the nYHRB,with 10–20-day and 15–40-day modes playing a secondary role.By contrast,3–7-day and 10–20-day modes are both significant over the sYHRB,with 7–14-day,15–40-day,and 20–60-day modes playing secondary roles.Based on a comparison between bandpass-filtered rainfall anomalies and original rainfall series,a total of 42,1,5,and 3 heavy rainfall events(daily rainfall amounts in the top 5%of rainy days)are detected over the nYHRB,corresponding to 3–7-day,7–14-day,10–20-day,and 15–40-day variation disturbances.Meanwhile,a total of 28,8,12,and 6 heavy rainfall events are detected over the sYHRB,corresponding to 3–7-day,7–14-day,10–20-day,and 20–60-day variation disturbances.The results have important implications for understanding the duration of summer heavy rainfall events over both regions.展开更多
Rainfall resource is very important to the development of society and economy,especially to eastern Jianghuai watershed which is now facing serious challenge of water shortage. Based on the observational records cover...Rainfall resource is very important to the development of society and economy,especially to eastern Jianghuai watershed which is now facing serious challenge of water shortage. Based on the observational records covering the period from 1957 to 1999,the characteristics of precipitation changing over eastern JiangHuai watershed and its connection to sediment discharge in Chihe River valley were studied using tendency analysis and correlation analysis .Results show that the rainfall in this area had a declining tendency in Spring at a rate of -21.2mm/10a, annual and Summer precipitation was increasing at the rate of 10.6mm/10a and 14.8mm/10a. The gray correlation analysis shows that sediment discharge correlates most closely with runoffs and the frequency of the rainstorm with a daily precipitation of 50-100mm, on the second place,with the rainfall and the frequency of the rainstorm of a daily precipitation no less than 100mm;and thirdly with the number of rainy days. In addition, the paper suggests the major countermeasures and methods for controlling of soil and water losses in this area.展开更多
Based on the 1961-1990 observed daily precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the HadCM3 model data for IPCC SRES A1B climate projections, the simulation capabilities of ...Based on the 1961-1990 observed daily precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the HadCM3 model data for IPCC SRES A1B climate projections, the simulation capabilities of the BP-CCA downscaling approach for extreme precipitation indices of the current climate are assessed by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA). In addition, future extreme precipitation indices in the middle and late 21st century are projected. The results show that simulation capability of the HadCM3 for regional climate characteristics can be effectively improved by the downscaling approach, with 30%-100% reduction of the relative errors of the climatological mean state of extreme precipitation indices. However, the downscaling results still show wetter winter and dryer summer than the observation. Under the SRES A1B emission scenario, frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, and the estimated increasing rate is higher for extreme precipitation indices than for mean precipitation index; and in summer than in winter. Extreme precipitations in the middle and late 21st century are expected to increase by 14% and 25% respectively in winter, and by 24% and 32% respectively in summer.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China [973 Program,grant number2015CB954102]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41475043]
文摘The Yangtze–Huai River Basin(YHRB)always suffers from anomalously heavy rainfall during the warm season,and has been well explored as a whole area during the past several decades.In this study,the YHRB is divided into two core regions-the northern YHRB(nYHRB)and southern YHRB(sYHRB)-based on 29-year(1979–2007)June–July–August(JJA)temporally averaged daily rainfall rates and the standard deviation of rainfall.A spectral analysis of JJA daily rainfall data over these 29 years reveals that a 3–7-day synoptic-timescale high-frequency mode is absolutely dominant over the nYHRB,with 10–20-day and 15–40-day modes playing a secondary role.By contrast,3–7-day and 10–20-day modes are both significant over the sYHRB,with 7–14-day,15–40-day,and 20–60-day modes playing secondary roles.Based on a comparison between bandpass-filtered rainfall anomalies and original rainfall series,a total of 42,1,5,and 3 heavy rainfall events(daily rainfall amounts in the top 5%of rainy days)are detected over the nYHRB,corresponding to 3–7-day,7–14-day,10–20-day,and 15–40-day variation disturbances.Meanwhile,a total of 28,8,12,and 6 heavy rainfall events are detected over the sYHRB,corresponding to 3–7-day,7–14-day,10–20-day,and 20–60-day variation disturbances.The results have important implications for understanding the duration of summer heavy rainfall events over both regions.
文摘Rainfall resource is very important to the development of society and economy,especially to eastern Jianghuai watershed which is now facing serious challenge of water shortage. Based on the observational records covering the period from 1957 to 1999,the characteristics of precipitation changing over eastern JiangHuai watershed and its connection to sediment discharge in Chihe River valley were studied using tendency analysis and correlation analysis .Results show that the rainfall in this area had a declining tendency in Spring at a rate of -21.2mm/10a, annual and Summer precipitation was increasing at the rate of 10.6mm/10a and 14.8mm/10a. The gray correlation analysis shows that sediment discharge correlates most closely with runoffs and the frequency of the rainstorm with a daily precipitation of 50-100mm, on the second place,with the rainfall and the frequency of the rainstorm of a daily precipitation no less than 100mm;and thirdly with the number of rainy days. In addition, the paper suggests the major countermeasures and methods for controlling of soil and water losses in this area.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (No. 40875058)the National Key Basic Research Program (No. 2012CB955200) of Chinafunded by the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Edusation Institutions
文摘Based on the 1961-1990 observed daily precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the HadCM3 model data for IPCC SRES A1B climate projections, the simulation capabilities of the BP-CCA downscaling approach for extreme precipitation indices of the current climate are assessed by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA). In addition, future extreme precipitation indices in the middle and late 21st century are projected. The results show that simulation capability of the HadCM3 for regional climate characteristics can be effectively improved by the downscaling approach, with 30%-100% reduction of the relative errors of the climatological mean state of extreme precipitation indices. However, the downscaling results still show wetter winter and dryer summer than the observation. Under the SRES A1B emission scenario, frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, and the estimated increasing rate is higher for extreme precipitation indices than for mean precipitation index; and in summer than in winter. Extreme precipitations in the middle and late 21st century are expected to increase by 14% and 25% respectively in winter, and by 24% and 32% respectively in summer.
