Quantitative evaluation of soil erosion of land subsided by coal mining using RUSLE

Based on a RUSLE model, we identified the key factors of the impact on soil erosion induced by coal min- ing subsidence. We designed a method for predicting/.S factors of a mining subsidence basin, using ana- lytical GIS spatial technology. Using the Huainan mining area as an example, we calculated the modulus of erosion, its volume and classified the grade of soil erosion for both the original area and the subsidence basin. The results show that the maximum modulus of erosion and the volume of erosion of the subsi- dence basin without water logging would increase by 78% and 23% respectively compared with the ori- ginal situation. The edge of the subsidence basin, where the land subsidence was uneven, is subject to the greatest acceleration in soil erosion. In the situation of water logging after subsidence, the maximum modulus of erosion would decrease if the accumulated slope length were reduced. This maximum mod- ulus around the water logged area within the subsidence basin is equal to that without water logging, while the total volume of erosion decreases. Therefore, mining subsidence aggravates soil erosion espe- cially at the edge of basins where water and soil conservation measures should be taken.

缓冲算子的VGM(1,1)模型预测精度研究

针对沉降过程中的沉降加速度和冲击扰动项问题,该文改变以累计沉降量作为GM(1,1)模型建模数据的传统做法,提出了以沉降速度为建模数据的VGM(1,1)模型和基于缓冲算子的VGM(1,1)模型。通过分析基坑沉降量的预测结果,比较VGM(1,1)模型、基于缓冲算子的VGM(1,1)模型、基于缓冲算子的GM(1,1)模型以及GM(1,1)模型之间的精度变化。实验结果表明,VGM(1,1)模型以及基于缓冲算子的VGM(1,1)模型均可提高预测精度,基于缓冲算子的VGM(1,1)模型精度高于VGM(1,1)模型,冲击扰动项对预测值的影响程度大于沉降加速度对预测值的影响程度。