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加快推进主要跨省河流水量分配 完善流域水资源配置格局
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《治淮》 2016年第11期F0004-F0004,共1页
关键词 流域水资源 河流水量分配 河流分水 配置格局 跨省
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Effects of water stress on Haloxylon ammodendron seedlings in the desert region of Heihe inland river watershed, Gansu Province, China 被引量:2
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作者 刘发民 仵彦卿 +1 位作者 苏建平 杜明武 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2003年第3期197-201,共5页
The water relation and leaf gas exchange of saxoul (Haloxylon Ammodendron Bge, a C4 shrub) seedlings were studied under water stress in 2001. Saxoul seedlings maintained high transpiration when the soil moisture was a... The water relation and leaf gas exchange of saxoul (Haloxylon Ammodendron Bge, a C4 shrub) seedlings were studied under water stress in 2001. Saxoul seedlings maintained high transpiration when the soil moisture was above 11%. The seedlings were able to take up water from soil with above 6 % soil water content, which was the threshold level of soil moisture for seedlings. The relationship between transpiration and potential evaporation was linear for well-watered seedlings. The de-crease of soil water availability led to different degrees of down-regulation of stomatal conductance, leaf transpiration and net CO2 assimilation rate. The stomata played a relatively small part in determining the net CO2 assimilation rate for the same seedling. The relationship between net CO2 assimilation rate and transpiration was linear diurnally, and reduction scale of leaf transpiration was much bigger than that of net CO2 assimilation rate by waters tress treatments, therefore intrinsic wa-ter-use-efficiency increased. High evaporative demand increased the leaf transpiration but inhibited net CO2 assimilation rate. Because of the effect of VPD on transpiration in this region, the transpiration of well-watered and mild water stress seedlings becomes responsive to change in stomatal conductance over a wider range. 展开更多
关键词 Haloxylon ammodendron Water stress Leaf gas exchange Water relation Stomatal conductance SEEDLING
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Influence of Vegetation Coverage on Surface Runoff and Soil Moisture in Rainy Season in Dry-hot Valley 被引量:7
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作者 郭芬芬 南岭 +1 位作者 陈安强 刘刚才 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2010年第4期138-143,共6页
[Objective]The research aimed to study the effects of vegetation coverage on the changes of soil moisture in rainy season in dry-hot valley.[Method]The surface runoff and soil moisture of slope with vegetation coverag... [Objective]The research aimed to study the effects of vegetation coverage on the changes of soil moisture in rainy season in dry-hot valley.[Method]The surface runoff and soil moisture of slope with vegetation coverage and bare land in rainy reason in Jinsha River at Yuanmou County of Yunnan Province were observed continuously.Moreover,the statistical analysis was made based on the observation data.[Result]The vegetation coverage could decrease surface runoff and the surface runoff on bare land(CK) was 22 times as the plot with vegetation coverage.The soil water content in 0-180 cm layer with vegetation coverage increased by 37.8% than bare land.The stability of soil moisture content in deep layer was enhanced and the physical properties stability of soil was maintained.The soil moisture content in different depth of soil had significant difference and the changes of soil moisture content were obviously different.[Conclusion]The vegetation coverage of slope could change the soil hydrology obviously and keep soil moisture at the higher level,especially at soil layer below 20 cm. 展开更多
关键词 Vegetation coverage Surface runoff Soil moisture Dry-hot valley
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Concentration variations of several ions in stream after a wildfire
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作者 刘洋 胡海清 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2007年第4期319-321,共3页
In May 2006, a high intensity wildfire occurred in Songling forest region in Daxing'an Mountains, China. The concentration changes of eight ions (K^+, Na^+, Ca^2+, Mg^2+, Cl^-, Br^-, NO3^- and SO4^2-) were meas... In May 2006, a high intensity wildfire occurred in Songling forest region in Daxing'an Mountains, China. The concentration changes of eight ions (K^+, Na^+, Ca^2+, Mg^2+, Cl^-, Br^-, NO3^- and SO4^2-) were measured in burned and tmbumed streams after fire from May to Oct., 2006. Results show that the most ions flux were higher in burned stream than that in unburned stream during the sampling period, and the greatest concentrations of most ions transported from burned stream occurred in July. After fire, the most amplitude chemical ion was Ca^2+, whose average concentration was 5.50 mg·L^-1 higher than that in unburned stream, and the total concentration of every chemical ion presents a trend Ca^2+〉SO4^2- 〉Na^+〉Mg^2+〉NO3^- . The average concentrations of Ca^2+, SO4^2- , Na^+'Mg^2+,NO3^- showed an increase trend, but those of K^+, Cl^- , Br had a decreased trend. SO4^2- had the largest loss among these anions, followed by NO3^-. Overall, the increase degree of cation was greater than that of anion after burning. 展开更多
关键词 Forest fire STREAM Water quality NUTRIENTS Fire effect
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赣江吉安至峡江河段水量不平衡问题探讨
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作者 杨永德 蒋学东 郭海晋 《水利水电快报》 1998年第13期22-25,共4页
赣江吉安-峡江河段从50年代开始水文观测以来,一直存在水量不平衡问题。1991年在进行赣江峡江水利枢纽可行性研究时,开展了该河段的水量平衡计算分析研究,初步弄清了该河段水量不平衡的原因是流向偏角、采用浮标系数、区间产水量计... 赣江吉安-峡江河段从50年代开始水文观测以来,一直存在水量不平衡问题。1991年在进行赣江峡江水利枢纽可行性研究时,开展了该河段的水量平衡计算分析研究,初步弄清了该河段水量不平衡的原因是流向偏角、采用浮标系数、区间产水量计算方法和区间工农业用水等环节的处理欠妥造成的。 展开更多
关键词 区域水量平衡 河流分水 产流计算 浮标系数
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Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport in the Haihe River Basin 被引量:12
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作者 WEI Jie LIN Zhao-Hui +1 位作者 XIA Jun TAO Shi-Yan 《Pedosphere》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第5期585-594,共10页
The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in North China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of... The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in North China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the water cycle over the HRB to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena were investigated using the observational and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. There was a strong interdecadal variability for the water cycle (such as precipitation and water vapor transport) over the region, with an abrupt change occurring mostly in the mid 1970s. The intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon largely affected the atmospheric water vapor transport. Generally, the net meridional convergence of the water vapor flux over the region was relatively large before 1965, and it declined gradually from then on with a further notable decrease since mid 1970s. Zonal water vapor transport was similar to meridional, but with a much smaller magnitude and no noteworthy turning in the mid 1970s. Results also suggested that the wind field played an important role in the water vapor transport over the HRB before the mid 1960s, and the interdecadal variability of the water cycle (precipitation, water vapor transport, etc.) in the summer was related to the PDO; however, interannual variation of the water vapor transport could also be related to the ENSO phenomena. 展开更多
关键词 interannual variability interdecadal variability Haihe River Basin water vapor transport
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Diagenetic evolution and its effect on reservoir-quality of fan delta sandstones during progressive burial: Evidence from the upper part of the fourth member of Shahejie formation, Bonan sag, Jiyang depression 被引量:3
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作者 马奔奔 操应长 +2 位作者 王艳忠 张少敏 贾艳聪 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第8期3042-3058,共17页
Petrographic analysis combined with various techniques, such as thin section identification, fluid inclusions, isotopic data, petro-physical property testing and oil testing results, was used to study diagenetic evolu... Petrographic analysis combined with various techniques, such as thin section identification, fluid inclusions, isotopic data, petro-physical property testing and oil testing results, was used to study diagenetic evolution and its effect on reservoir-quality of fan delta reservoirs of Es4s in the Bonan sag. The diagenesis is principally characterized by strong compaction, undercompaction, multi-phase of dissolution and cementation. Compaction played a more important role than cementation in destroying the primary porosity of the sandstones. The reservoirs have experienced complicated diagenetic environment evolution of "weak alkalineacid-alkalinity-acid-weak alkalinity" and two-stage of hydrocarbon filling. The diagenetic sequences are summarized as "early compaction/early pyrite/gypsum/calcite/dolomite cementation→feldspar dissolution/the first stage of quartz overgrowth → early hydrocarbon filling→quartz dissolution/anhydrite/Fe-carbonate cementation→Fe-carbonate dissolution/feldspar dissolution/ the second stage of quartz overgrowth→later hydrocarbon filling→later pyrite cementation. In the same diagenetic context, the diagenetic evolution processes that occurred in different sub/micro-facies during progressive burial have resulted in heterogeneous reservoir properties and oiliness. The braided channel reservoirs in fan delta plain are poorly sorted with high matrix contents. The physical properties decrease continually due to the principally strong compaction and weak dissolution. The present properties of braided channel reservoirs are extremely poor, which is evidenced by few oil layers developed in relatively shallow strata while dry layers entirely in deep. The reservoirs both in the underwater distributary channels and mouth bars are well sorted and have a strong ability to resist compaction. Abundant pores are developed in medium-deep strata because of modifications by two-stage of acidic dissolution and hydrocarbon filling. The present properties are relatively well both in the underwater distributary channels and mouth bars and plenty of oil layers are developed in different burial depth. The present reservoir properties both in interdistributary channel and pre-fan delta are poor caused by extensively cementation. Small amounts of oil layers, oil-water layers and oil-bearing layers are developed in relatively shallow strata while dry layers totally in deep. 展开更多
关键词 diagenetic evolution deep strata fan delta Es4s Bonan sag
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Response of the distributary channel of the Huanghe River estuary to water and sediment discharge regulation in 2007
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作者 马妍妍 李广雪 +6 位作者 叶思源 张志恒 赵广明 李景阳 周春艳 丁文洁 杨欣 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第6期1362-1370,共9页
The water and sediment discharge regulation (WSDR) project, which has been performed since 2002 before flood season every year, is of great significance to the river management in China. Until 2007, six experiments ... The water and sediment discharge regulation (WSDR) project, which has been performed since 2002 before flood season every year, is of great significance to the river management in China. Until 2007, six experiments have been fulfilled to evaluate the effect of the project on the natural environment. To fill the gap of investigations, a study on flood and suspended sediment transportation and channel changing along the distributary channel of the Huanghe (Yellow) River was conducted during the WSDR project period in 2007. The lower channel was scoured rapidly and the channel became unobstructed gradually several days after the flood peak water was discharged from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir. Within four days after the flood peak at 3 000 m3/s entered the distributary, the channel in the river mouth area was eroded quickly. Both the mean values of area and depth of the main channel were tripled, and the maximum flood carrying capacity increased to 5 500 m3/s or more. Then, the river channel was silted anew in a very short time after completion of the WSDR. Favored by the WSDR project, the fiver status in April 2008 became better than that of the year before. The adjustment ranges of main channel parameters were about 30%, 10%, and 10% at sections C2, Q4, and Q7, respectively. The process of rapid erosion-deposition was more active 15 km away in the channel from the fiver mouth due to the marine influence. It is reasonable for discharging sediment at concentration peak from Xiaolangdi Reservoir at the end of the flood peak. As a result, the sediment peak reached the river mouth about two days later than that of the water current. In addition, the WSDR project has improved the development of the estuarine wetland. Wetland vegetation planted along the river banks restrained the water flow as a strainer and improved the main channel stability. It is suggested to draw water at mean rate of 150 m3/s from the Huanghe River during flood periods, because at the rate the water in the wetland would be stored and replenished in balance. Moreover, we believe that cropland on the river shoal of the lower Huanghe River should be replaced by wetland. These activities should achieve the Huanghe River management strategy of "To concentrate flow to scour sediment, stabilize the main channel, and regulate water and sediment". 展开更多
关键词 Huanghe (Yellow) River estuary water and sediment regulation river channel adjustment wetland.
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Projection and Historical Analysis of Hydrological Circulation in Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar
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作者 Takao Yamashita Htay Aung 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2016年第6期736-742,共7页
Based on the comparison between several model outputs from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) and the satellite rainfall mapping data of GSMaP (global satellite mapping of precipitation), This p... Based on the comparison between several model outputs from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) and the satellite rainfall mapping data of GSMaP (global satellite mapping of precipitation), This paper selected MIROC4h as a future projection of rainfall in the Sittaung River basin, Myanmar, with the fine spatial resolution of 0.5°. At first, MIROC4h projection towards 2035 was corrected by using the error trend (GSMaP-MIROC4h) for nine years over-rapping of both outputs from 2006 to 2014. Assuming the seasonal autoregressive processes, future error trend at each grid point was estimated by the time series forecast of SARMAP processes using the nine years training data. Then future projection correction was done by M1ROC4h output plus error trend at each grid point to obtain the corrected MIROC4h precipitation. As a historical analysis, using the corrected precipitation in the Sittaung River basin and observed river discharge at the outlet of the river, the hydrological model (HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran)) calibration was carried out with consideration of the water utilization data for darn/reservoir and irrigation. As a projection analysis, future simulation of hourly discharge at the outlet of Sittaung River from 2015 to 2035 was conducted by using the corrected MIROC4h precipitation. The results of projection analysis show that high risks of flood will appear in 2023 and 2028 and the risks of draught will be expected in 2019-2021. 展开更多
关键词 Hydrological simulation HSPF CMIP5 MIROC4h TRMM GSMaP.
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Numerical Analysis of Emergency River Restoration Scheme for Qingping Mega Debris Flow 被引量:2
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作者 CHEN Ri-dong LIU Xing-nian +1 位作者 HUANG Er GUO Zhi-xue 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2013年第1期130-136,共7页
The mega debris flow occurred on August 13 th 2010 in Qingping town,China(hereafter called '8.13' Debris Flow) have done great damage to the local habitants as well as to the re-construction projects in the qu... The mega debris flow occurred on August 13 th 2010 in Qingping town,China(hereafter called '8.13' Debris Flow) have done great damage to the local habitants as well as to the re-construction projects in the quake-hit areas,and the channel-fill deposit problem caused by the debris flow was the most destructive.Moreover,it is of high possibility that an even severe deposit problem would reappear and result in worse consequences.In order to maximize risk reduction of this problem,relevant departments of the government established a series of emergency river restoration schemes,for which the numerical analysis is an important procedure to evaluate and determine the optimized one.This study presents a numerical analysis by applying a twodimensional debris flow model combined with a relevant water-sediment model to simulate the deposit during the progress of the debris flow,and to calculate and analyze the river flow field under both the present condition and different restoration conditions.The results show that the debris flow model,which takes the confluence of the Wenjia Gully to the main river into account,could simulate the deposit process quite well.In the reproduced debris flow from the simulation of the '8.13' Debris Flow,the original river flow path has switched to a relatively lower place just along the right bank with a high speed of near 7m.s-1 after being blocked by the deposit,which is highly hazardous.To prevent this hazard,a recommended scheme is derived through inter-comparison of different restoration conditions.It shows that the recommended scheme is able to reduce the water level and as well to regulate the flow path.Based on the given conditions of the mainstream and the tributary confluence for the simulated '8.13' Debris Flow,when encountering a debris flow with deposit volume less than 0.5 million m3,the river channel can endure a 20-year return flood;however,when the deposit volume increases to 2 million m3,the flood capacity of the river will be greatly impacted and the scheme becomes invalid.The recommended scheme supported by the present study has been applied to the emergency river restoration after this mega-debris flow. 展开更多
关键词 Flash flood Debris flow River restoration Numerical analysis Finite element method
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A distributed scheme developed for eco-hydrological modeling in the upper Heihe River 被引量:24
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作者 YANG DaWen GAO Bing +4 位作者 JIAO Yang LEI Hui Min ZHANG YanLin YANG HanBo CONG ZhenTao 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第1期36-45,共10页
Modeling the hydrological processes at catchment scale requires a flexible distributed scheme to represent the catchment to- pography, river network and vegetation pattern. This study has developed a distributed schem... Modeling the hydrological processes at catchment scale requires a flexible distributed scheme to represent the catchment to- pography, river network and vegetation pattern. This study has developed a distributed scheme for eco-hydrological simulation in the upper Heihe River. Based on a 1 km x 1 km grid system, the study catchment is divided into 461 sub-catchments, whose main streams form the streamflow pathway. Furthermore, a 1 km grid is represented by a number of topographically similar "hillslope-valley" systems, and the hillslope is the basic unit of the eco-hydrological simulation. This model is tested with a simplified hydrological simulation focusing on soil-water dynamics and streamflow routing. Based on a 12-year simulation from 2001 to 2012, it is found that variability in hydrological behavior is closely associated with climatic and landscape condi- tions especially vegetation types. The subsurface and groundwater flows dominate the total river runoff. This implies that the soil freezing and thawing process would significantly influence the runoff generation in the upper Heihe basin. Furthermore, the runoff components and water balance characteristics vary among different vegetation types, showing the importance of coupling the vegetation pattern into catchment hydrological simulation. This paper also discusses the model improvement to be done in future study. 展开更多
关键词 distributed scheme catchment discretization streamflow pathway hillslope parameterization the upper Heihe River
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River management system development in Asia based on Data Integration and Analysis System(DIAS) under GEOSS 被引量:5
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作者 Toshio KOIKE Petra KOUDELOVA +3 位作者 Patricia Ann JARANILLA-SANCHEZ Asif Mumtaz BHATTI Cho Thanda NYUNT Katsunori TAMAGAWA 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第1期76-95,共20页
This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the f... This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the framework of GEOSS Asia water cycle initiative (AWCI). The system is based on integration of data from earth observation satellites and in-situ networks with other types of data, including numerical weather prediction model outputs, climate model outputs, geographical infor- mation, and socio-economic data. The system builds on the water and energy budget distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM) that was adapted for specific conditions of studied basins, in particular snow and glacier phenomena and equipped with other functions such as dam operation optimization scheme and a set of tools for climate change impact assess- ment to be able to generate relevant information for policy and decision makers. In situ data were archived for 18 selected ba- sins at the Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) of Japan and demonstration projects were carded out showing poten- tial of the new system. It included climate change impact assessment on hydrological regimes, which is presently a critical step for sound management decisions. Results of such three case studies in Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam are provided here. 展开更多
关键词 integrated water resources management tools climate change impact assessment Asian river basins Asian Water Cycle Initiative
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Sedimentary filling and sequence structure dominated by T-R cycles of the Nenjiang Formation in the Songliao Basin 被引量:5
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作者 ZHANG ChenChen ZHANG Shun +8 位作者 WEI Wei WU ChaoDong LIANG JiangPing NIU Wen DU JinXia FU XiuLi CUI KunNing WANG Chao WANG Hui 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第2期278-296,共19页
The Nenjiang Formation in the Songliao Basin is a symmetrical sequence of progradation-retrogradation,and is formed in the transgression cycle and regression cycle(T-R cycles)of the base level of deposition.We analyze... The Nenjiang Formation in the Songliao Basin is a symmetrical sequence of progradation-retrogradation,and is formed in the transgression cycle and regression cycle(T-R cycles)of the base level of deposition.We analyzed the drilling,well logging,core data,and seismic profiles of basin level,and by using the sequence stratigraphy,identified one secondary sequence boundary,two third-order sequence boundaries,and eight fourth-order sequence boundaries in the Nenjiang Formation.These eleven sequence boundaries can be divided into structural unconformity,depositional unconformity,flooding surface,and forced regression surface.Therefore the Nenjiang Formation can be subdivided into one secondary sequence,three third-order sequences,and ten fourth-order sequences.We have restored the sedimentary filling evolution within the stratigraphic framework of fourth-order sequences in the Nenjiang Formation.The sedimentary period of the first member of the Nenjiang Formation was corresponded to the global transgression period,which is also the development period of transgression cycle(T cycle),when the lake basin had the largest scope and deepest sedimentary water,the SB07(the maximum flooding surface)was formed on the top of strata during this period;covering above the SB07,there developed a set of condensation layer-oil shale,which is distributed in the whole basin and is the important source bed and regional cover.Therefore,a retrogradation sequence was formed in the T cycle of the first member of the Nenjiang Formation,characterized by the retrograding delta at a low angle.The delta has a giant front,a small plain,and many underwater distributary channels.Meanwhile,large gravity flow channels and sublacustrine fans are developed in the front of the delta.During the depositional period of the second member of the Nenjiang Formation,the R cycle began to develop due to the compression of the pacific tectonic domain;the source direction rotated 90°along with the eastern uplifting of the basin,and formed a series of east-west prograded and forced retrogradations.The prograding delta at high angel was developed in the interior of the sequence;the delta had a small front,a giant plain,and fewer underwater distributary channels,with the collapse at the foreslope,forming a series of slump fans.The slump fans can be divided into three types:discrete type,superimposed type,and fluid type.We built a whole"triad model"of the slump fan.Pointed out that the sequence of forced retrogradation formed by R cycle is a good structural mark of basin optimization,and rejected the viewpoint of"transgression"in the Nenjiang Formation of the Songliao Basin. 展开更多
关键词 transgressive-regressive cycles sedimentary evolution dynamic mechanism Songliao Basin Nenjiang Formation
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Characteristics of carbonate cementation in clastic rocks from the Chang 6 sandbody of Yanchang Formation, southern Ordos Basin 被引量:11
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作者 LIU ChunYan ZHENG HeRong +1 位作者 HU ZongQuan YIN Wei LI Song 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第1期58-66,共9页
Densification of reservoir is an important factor that restricts oil and gas exploration from low porosity and extra-low permeability reservoirs. Carbonate cementation was heavily developed in Chang 6 sandbody, a faci... Densification of reservoir is an important factor that restricts oil and gas exploration from low porosity and extra-low permeability reservoirs. Carbonate cementation was heavily developed in Chang 6 sandbody, a facies of underwater distributary channel in delta front, of Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in Fuxian area, southern Ordos Basin, and the cementation is one of the major factors that affect quality of reservoir. Based on the macro-microcosmic petrology and geochemistry features, the genesis of densification of carbonate-cemented reservoir was systematically discussed. The carbonate cementation can be classified into endogenous and exogenous, and the essential differences between them are that they were formed in different fluids and in different diagenesis periods. With the aid of identification of thin sections, analyses on electron probe, trace and rare-earth elements, carbon and oxygen isotope, we propose that the endogenous fluid for cementation came from the rock itself during early diagenetic stage. The minerals related to endogenous fluid had good shapes. The reservoir property was enhanced with porosity increasing by 3%-8% because of later dissolution by endogenous fluid. The exogenous fluid might be water combining with CO 2 , likely released from organic matter-rich mudstone. Calcite cement, in form of substrate cementation, was precipitated from the fluid and filled in the remaining pores of sandstones in late diagenetic stage as variations of physical and chemical conditions. The exogenous cement reduced rock porosity, damaged reservoir property, affected some oil enrichment, and seriously caused Chang 6 reservoir densification. Some of the dense layers that formed on top of sandbody could have served as diagenetic traps, and thus the exogenous cementation area could be favorable for oil exploration. 展开更多
关键词 Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation densified clastic reservoir carbonate cementation substrate cement genetic mechanism
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Uncertainty analysis of hydrological model parameters based on the bootstrap method:A case study of the SWAT model applied to the Dongliao River Watershed,Jilin Province,Northeastern China 被引量:9
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作者 ZHANG Zheng LU WenXi +2 位作者 CHU HaiBo CHENG WeiGuo ZHAO Ying 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第1期219-229,共11页
As an important tool for the description and analysis of hydrological processes,the watershed hydrological model has been increasingly applied to watershed hydrological simulations and water resource management.Howeve... As an important tool for the description and analysis of hydrological processes,the watershed hydrological model has been increasingly applied to watershed hydrological simulations and water resource management.However,in most cases,model parameters are only determined in a calibration scheme which fits the modeled data to observations,thus significant uncertainties exist in the model parameters.How to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainties in model parameters and the resulting uncertainty impacts on model simulations has always been a question which has attracted much attention.In this study,two methods based on the bootstrap method(specifically,the model-based bootstrap and block bootstrap)are used to analyze the parameter uncertainties in the case of the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model applied to a hydrological simulation of the Dongliao River Watershed.Then,the uncertainty ranges of five sensitivity parameters are obtained.The calculated variation coefficients and the variable parameter contributions show that,among the five parameters,ESCO and CN2 have relatively high uncertainties:the variation coefficients and contribution rates are 23.98 and 70%,14.43 and 18%,respectively.The three remaining parameters have relatively low uncertainties.We compare the two uncertainty ranges of parameters acquired by the two bootstrap methods,and find that the uncertainty ranges of parameters acquired by the block bootstrap are narrower than those acquired by the model-based bootstrap.Further analysis of the effects of parameter uncertainties on the model simulation reveals that the parameter uncertainties have great impacts on results of the model simulation,and in the model calibration stage 60%70%of runoff observations were within the corresponding 95%confidence interval.The uncertainty in the model simulation during the flood season(i.e.the wet period)is relatively higher than that during the dry season. 展开更多
关键词 PARAMETERS uncertainty analysis hydrological model BOOTSTRAP SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)
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