洪涝灾害人口损失研究进展

洪涝灾害经常造成大量的人员死亡,不仅给人们心理上造成巨大创伤,还给生产生活带来严重的破坏,成为对社会影响最为严重的自然灾害之一。随着民生水利的提出,洪涝灾害中人口死亡研究受到各级水行政主管部门的关注。现详细介绍了洪涝灾害中影响人员损失的主要影响因子(即水深、流速、水位上涨速率、水温、疏散撤离和救援等)方面的国内外研究进展,以及溃坝洪水、沿海风暴潮、海啸和江河洪水等4种主要洪涝灾害类型中人口损失的估算方法。最后结合我国灾害人口损失研究的现状,对人口损失研究的发展趋势进行了展望。

Numerical simulation of typhoon- induced storm surge on the coast of Jiangsu Province,China,based on coupled hydrodynamic and wave models

In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation （ ADCIRC ） hydrodynamic model and simulating waves nearshore （ SWAN ） model is applied to analyze the storm surge and waves on the coast of Jiangsu Province.The verifications of wind velocity, tidal levels and wave height show that this coupling model performs well to reflect the characteristics of the water levels and waves in the studied region.Results show that the effect of radiation stress on storm surge is significant, especially in shallow areas such as the coast of Jiangsu Province and the Yangtze estuary.By running the coupled model, the simulated potential flooding results can be employed in coastal engineering applications in the Jiangsu coastal area, such as storm surge warnings and extreme water level predictions.

High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide Forecasting System in Korea

This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.

The Numerical Simulation of Storm-Surge and Coastal Flooding in Western Taiwan： A Case Study of 2007 Typhoon SEPAT

A numerical model for simulating storm surge with nested grid system has been applied to hindcast the coastal flooding on both sides of Taiwan Strait. The simulation results can be used to understand the transport variation and the inundation distribution induced by the storm surge on the interested area during typhoon invades. The case in this study is Typhoon SEPAT, which passed through central Taiwan in 2007. The transport characteristics through Taiwan Strait under the influence of Typhoon SEPAT were discussed by comparing the field observations and numerical simulations during the typhoon period. The results indicate that the surge height of Typhoon SEPAT did not respond to the peak of wind waves accompanied with 15 hrs time lag. According to the influence of dynamical forces on the storm surge in Taiwan Strait, the onshore wind is the dominant role of coastal inundation during this typhoon event in Taiwan Strait. By observing the inundation map through the typhoon period, the coasts of Yulin County are verified to be the most serious affected area in the vicinity of Taiwan Strait.

Effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea

A two-dimensional coupled tide-surge model was used to investigate the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. In order to estimate the impacts of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations, Typhoon 7203 was assumed to arrive at 12 different times, with all other conditions remaining constant. This allowed simulation of tide and total water levels for 12 separate cases. Numerical simulation results for Yingkou, Huludao, Shijiusuo, and Lianyungang tidal stations were analyzed. Model results showed wide variations in storm surge elevations across the 12 cases. The largest difference between 12 extreme storm surge elevation values was of up to 58 cm and occurred at Yingkou tidal station. The results indicate that the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations are very significant. It is therefore essential that these are taken into account when predicting storm surge elevations.