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“全面放开二孩”政策对中国人口出生率的冲击与趋势探讨 被引量:60
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作者 齐美东 戴梦宇 郑焱焱 《中国人口·资源与环境》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2016年第9期1-10,共10页
从"单独二孩"政策到"全面放开二孩"政策,政府针对中国人口现实情况不断做出符合社会需求的政策调整,尽管有可能缓解长期以来计划生育政策导致的适龄劳动力短缺及"未富先老"等社会问题,但人口政策调整的... 从"单独二孩"政策到"全面放开二孩"政策,政府针对中国人口现实情况不断做出符合社会需求的政策调整,尽管有可能缓解长期以来计划生育政策导致的适龄劳动力短缺及"未富先老"等社会问题,但人口政策调整的长期效果却有待验证。为此,本文运用灰色预测模型和Leslis模型等方法,对"全面放开二孩"生育政策背景下中国未来人口出生率的冲击和波动趋势作出预测,并对"全面放开二孩"政策所带来的对生育率及人口年龄结构影响展开分析,对2016—2050年的出生率、人口总数及人口结构作出预测,最终发现"全面放开二孩"政策会促进人口结构相对优化,但不能从根本上扭转劳动力供求关系失衡和老龄化加剧的趋势。为防止落入人口超低生育率陷阱,适度抑制老龄化快速增长趋势,实现人口与社会经济全面协调发展,必须对现行的生育政策进行完善,短期内,应积极出台配套措施,全面贯彻"全面放开二孩"政策,积极应对老龄化趋势;长期内,应逐步过渡到自主生育政策,形成人口自然生长的均衡发展长效机制。 展开更多
关键词 “全面放开二孩” 人口出生率 波动:趋势
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New seismic attribute:Fractal scaling exponent based on gray detrended fluctuation analysis 被引量:1
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作者 黄亚平 耿建华 郭彤楼 《Applied Geophysics》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第3期343-352,467,共11页
Seismic attributes have been widely used in oil and gas exploration and development. However, owing to the complexity of seismic wave propagation in subsurface media, the limitations of the seismic data acquisition sy... Seismic attributes have been widely used in oil and gas exploration and development. However, owing to the complexity of seismic wave propagation in subsurface media, the limitations of the seismic data acquisition system, and noise interference, seismic attributes for seismic data interpretation have uncertainties. Especially, the antinoise ability of seismic attributes directly affects the reliability of seismic interpretations. Gray system theory is used in time series to minimize data randomness and increase data regularity. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) can effectively reduce extrinsic data tendencies. In this study, by combining gray system theory and DFA, we propose a new method called gray detrended fluctuation analysis (GDFA) for calculating the fractal scaling exponent. We consider nonlinear time series generated by the Weierstrass function and add random noise to actual seismic data. Moreover, we discuss the antinoise ability of the fractal scaling exponent based on GDFA. The results suggest that the fractal scaling exponent calculated using the proposed method has good antinoise ability. We apply the proposed method to 3D poststack migration seismic data from southern China and compare fractal scaling exponents calculated using DFA and GDFA. The results suggest that the use of the GDFA-calculated fractal scaling exponent as a seismic attribute can match the known distribution of sedimentary facies. 展开更多
关键词 Seismic attribute gray system theory detrended fluctuation analysis fractal scaling exponent
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Understanding long-term memory in global mean temperature:An attribution study based on model simulations 被引量:1
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作者 QIU Min YUAN Naiming YUAN Shujie 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2020年第5期485-492,共8页
Long-term memory(LTM)in the climate system has been well recognized and applied in different research fields,but the origins of this property are still not clear.In this work,the authors contribute to this issue by st... Long-term memory(LTM)in the climate system has been well recognized and applied in different research fields,but the origins of this property are still not clear.In this work,the authors contribute to this issue by studying model simulations under different scenarios.The global mean temperatures from pre-industrial control runs(pi Control),historical(all forcings)simulations,natural forcing only simulations(Historical Nat),greenhouse gas forcing only simulations(Historical GHG),etc.,are analyzed using the detrended fluctuation analysis.The authors find that the LTM already exists in the pi Control simulations,indicating the important roles of internal natural variability in producing the LTM.By comparing the results among different scenarios,the LTM from the piControl runs is further found to be strengthened by adding natural forcings such as the volcanic forcing and the solar forcing.Accordingly,the observed LTM in the climate system is suggested to be mainly controlled by both the‘internal’natural variability and the‘external’natural forcings.The anthropogenic forcings,however,may weaken the LTM.In the projections from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5,a weakening trend of the LTM strength is found.In view of the close relations between the climate memory and the climate predictability,a reduced predictability may be expected in a warming climate. 展开更多
关键词 Long-term memory model simulations ATTRIBUTION detrended fluctuation analysis
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