Evidence of Climate Variability in Imo State of Southeastern Nigeria

Climate variation generally occurs at local scale, regional scale, national scale and global scale. Having established that the global climate has varied slowly over the past millennia, centuries, and decades and it is expected to continue to vary in future. Like the climate change, variability may be due to, national internal processes within the climate （internal variability）, or variations in natural or anthropogenic external forces （external variability）. Evidence of climate variations is now well documented, and the implications are becoming increasingly clear as data accumulates and data and climate models become increasingly sophisticated. The fluctuations in rainfall and temperature regimes are the atmospheric driving forces that are responsible for the climate variations over the southeastern Nigeria including Imo State as the case in other parts of the world. It is on this premise that this study examined the evidence of climate variability in Imo State of the southeastern Nigeria. The study employed the holistic use of real meteorological data from Nigerian Meteorological Department on two weather parameters （temperature and rainfall）, for 30 years （1980-2009）. Results indicated fluctuations in temperature and rainfall regimes within the period under study, which were the reasons for the variations in climate of the region. Apparently, evidence of climate variability are indicated by increasing surface air temperature, increasing heat waves which enhances disease vectors, communicable diseases and epidemics, sea level rise and associated coastal erosion, flooding, increased evaporation that dry up streams and rivers etc..

Genesis of the 2014–2016 El Nio events

The 2015/2016 El Nio was one of the strongest El Nio events in history, and this strong event was preceded by a weak El Nio in 2014. This study systematically analyzed the dynamical processes responsible for the genesis of these events. It was found that the weak 2014 El Nio had two warming phases, the spring-summer warming was produced by zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by westerly wind bursts(WWBs), and the autumn-winter warming was produced by meridional advection, surface heating as well as downwelling Kelvin waves. The 2015/2016 extreme El Nio, on the other hand, was primarily a result of sustained zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by a series of WWBs, with enhancement from the Bjerknes positive feedback. The vast difference between these two El Nio events mainly came from the different amount of WWBs in 2014 and 2015. As compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 extreme El Nio events, the 2015/2016 El Nio exhibited some distinctive characteristics in its genesis and spatial pattern. We need to include the effects of WWBs to the theoretical framework of El Nio to explain these characteristics, and to improve our understanding and prediction of El Nio.