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股权分置改革、监管战略与中国股市波动性突变 被引量:7
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作者 袁鲲 段军山 沈振宇 《金融研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第6期162-176,共15页
本文运用ICSS法则对1992—2012年中国股市波动性突变进行了判别,考察了与股市波动性突变相联系的重大事件,并实证检验了股市波动性突变的影响因素。研究发现,股市调控政策事件对股市波动性突变产生了显著的影响,但主要分布在股权分... 本文运用ICSS法则对1992—2012年中国股市波动性突变进行了判别,考察了与股市波动性突变相联系的重大事件,并实证检验了股市波动性突变的影响因素。研究发现,股市调控政策事件对股市波动性突变产生了显著的影响,但主要分布在股权分置改革前期。股权分置改革之后没有出现与波动性突变对应的政府直接干预股市的政策事件,而制度完善、经济社会事件及海外市场波动溢出效应对中国股市波动性的影响逐渐增强。这表明股权分置改革之后,中国股市告别了传统的以社论、重要讲话等为典型特征的“政策市”,短期性、临时性的相机决策型监管战略逐渐向长期、均衡、稳定发展型战略转变。本文也认为,股权分置改革并非“毕其功于一役”,应继续深化改革、完善股市基础性制度。 展开更多
关键词 波动性突变 监管战略 股权分置改革
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Discussion on research methods of bacterial resistant mutation mechanisms under selective culture——uncertainty analysis of data from the Luria-Delbrück fluctuation experiment
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作者 JIN JianLing WEI Gang +2 位作者 YANG WeiQiang ZHANG HuaiQiang GAO PeiJi 《Science China(Life Sciences)》 SCIE CAS 2012年第11期1007-1021,共15页
Whether bacterial drug-resistance is drug-induced or results from rapid propagation of random spontaneous mutations in the flora prior to exposure, remains a long-term key issue concerned and debated in both genetics ... Whether bacterial drug-resistance is drug-induced or results from rapid propagation of random spontaneous mutations in the flora prior to exposure, remains a long-term key issue concerned and debated in both genetics and medicinal fields. In a pio-neering study, Luria and Delbruck exposed E. coli to T1 phage, to investigate whether the number of resistant colonies fol- lowed the Poisson distribution. They deduced that the development of resistant colonies is independent of phage presence. Similar results have since been obtained on solid medium containing antibacterial agents. Luria and Delbruck's conclusions were long considered a gold standard for analyzing drug resistance mutations. More recently, the concept of adaptive mutation has triggered controversy over this approach. Microbiological observation shows that, following exposure to drugs of various concentrations, drug-resistant cells emerge and multiply depending on the time course, and show a process function, incon-sistent with the definition of Poisson distribution (which assumes not only that resistance is independent of drug quantity but follows no specific time course). At the same time, since cells tend to aggregate after division rather than separating, colonies growing on drug plates arise from the multiplication of resistant bacteria cells of various initial population sizes. Thus, statisti-cal analysis based on equivalence of initial populations will yield erroneous results. In this paper, 310 data from the Lu- ria-DelbNck fluctuation experiment were reanalyzed from this perspective. In most cases, a high-end abnormal value, resulting from the non-synchronous variation of the two above-mentioned time variables, was observed. Therefore, the mean value cannot be regarded as an unbiased expectation estimate. The ratio between mean value and variance was similarly incompara-ble, because two different sampling methods were used. In fact, the Luria-Delbrtick data appear to follow an aggregated, rather than Poisson distribution. In stmnnary, the statistical analysis of Luria and Delbruck is insufficient to describe rules of resistant mutant development and multiplication. Correction of this historical misunderstanding will enable new insight into bacterial resistance mechanisms. 展开更多
关键词 BACTERIA MUTATION random process Poisson distribution statistical test aggregated distribution
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