Techniques of gully-specific debris flow hazard assessment develope d in four periods since the end of the 1980s have been discussed in the present paper. The improvement for the empirical assessment method is the sec...Techniques of gully-specific debris flow hazard assessment develope d in four periods since the end of the 1980s have been discussed in the present paper. The improvement for the empirical assessment method is the sectionalized function transformation for the factor value, rather than the classified logical transformation. The theoretical equation of the gully-specific debris flow haz ard is expressed as the definite integral of an exponential function and its num erical solution is expressed by the Poisson Limit Equation. Current methods for assessment of debris flow hazard in China are still valid and practical. The fur ther work should be put on the study of the reliability (or uncertainty) of the techniques. For the future, we should give a high priority to the relationship b etween debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence, make more developm ents of prediction model on debris flow magnitude, so as to finally reach the go al of assessing the hazard of debris flow by theoretical model, and realize both actuality assessment and prediction appraisal of debris flow.展开更多
Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2oo8. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruc...Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2oo8. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruction. The existing methods of inundation simulation are based on historical disasters and have no power of prediction. The rain- flood method can not yield detailed flow hydrograph and does not meet the need of inundation simulation. In this paper, the process of water flow was studied by using the Arc-SCS model combined with hydraulic method, and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula combining the result from Arc-SCS. The peak discharge and runoff duration served as input of inundation simulation. Then, the dangerous area is predicted using kinematic wave method and Manning equation. Taking the debris flow in Huashiban gully in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, China on 24 Sep. 2oo8 as example, the peak discharge of water flow and debris flow were calculated as 35.52 m3·s-1 and 215.66 m3·s-, with error of 4.15% compared to the measured values. The simulated area of debris-flow deposition was 161,500 m2, vs. the measured area of 144,097 m2, in error of 81.75%. The simulated maximum depth was 12.3 m, consistent with the real maximum depth between lO and 15 m according to the field survey. The minor error is mainly due to the flow impact on buildings and variations in cross-section configuration. The present methodology can be applied to predict debrisflow magnitude and evaluate its risk in other watersheds inthe earthquake area.展开更多
Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and mod...Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.展开更多
Shangyao valley is located in Jin'an village of Songpan in Sichuan. Many material sources are accumulated in valleys. The debris flow will be triggered by a rain storm with short-duration and strong intensity, whi...Shangyao valley is located in Jin'an village of Songpan in Sichuan. Many material sources are accumulated in valleys. The debris flow will be triggered by a rain storm with short-duration and strong intensity, which may threaten people's lives and property in downstream. Based on the investigation,the formation conditions of debris flow and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed and its hazard assessment is investigated. Research shows that there is the potential cause of debris flow in Shangyao valley,which is of the middle risk class.展开更多
文摘Techniques of gully-specific debris flow hazard assessment develope d in four periods since the end of the 1980s have been discussed in the present paper. The improvement for the empirical assessment method is the sectionalized function transformation for the factor value, rather than the classified logical transformation. The theoretical equation of the gully-specific debris flow haz ard is expressed as the definite integral of an exponential function and its num erical solution is expressed by the Poisson Limit Equation. Current methods for assessment of debris flow hazard in China are still valid and practical. The fur ther work should be put on the study of the reliability (or uncertainty) of the techniques. For the future, we should give a high priority to the relationship b etween debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence, make more developm ents of prediction model on debris flow magnitude, so as to finally reach the go al of assessing the hazard of debris flow by theoretical model, and realize both actuality assessment and prediction appraisal of debris flow.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Grant No.2011CB409902)the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(Grant No. 40671025)
文摘Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2oo8. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruction. The existing methods of inundation simulation are based on historical disasters and have no power of prediction. The rain- flood method can not yield detailed flow hydrograph and does not meet the need of inundation simulation. In this paper, the process of water flow was studied by using the Arc-SCS model combined with hydraulic method, and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula combining the result from Arc-SCS. The peak discharge and runoff duration served as input of inundation simulation. Then, the dangerous area is predicted using kinematic wave method and Manning equation. Taking the debris flow in Huashiban gully in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, China on 24 Sep. 2oo8 as example, the peak discharge of water flow and debris flow were calculated as 35.52 m3·s-1 and 215.66 m3·s-, with error of 4.15% compared to the measured values. The simulated area of debris-flow deposition was 161,500 m2, vs. the measured area of 144,097 m2, in error of 81.75%. The simulated maximum depth was 12.3 m, consistent with the real maximum depth between lO and 15 m according to the field survey. The minor error is mainly due to the flow impact on buildings and variations in cross-section configuration. The present methodology can be applied to predict debrisflow magnitude and evaluate its risk in other watersheds inthe earthquake area.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51279116)the New Teacher Fund of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 20120181120124)+1 种基金the Excellent Scholar Fund of Sichuan UniversityOpen Fund Program of State key Laboratory of Hydraulics and River Engineering, Sichuan University, China (Grant No. 0901)
文摘Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.
文摘Shangyao valley is located in Jin'an village of Songpan in Sichuan. Many material sources are accumulated in valleys. The debris flow will be triggered by a rain storm with short-duration and strong intensity, which may threaten people's lives and property in downstream. Based on the investigation,the formation conditions of debris flow and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed and its hazard assessment is investigated. Research shows that there is the potential cause of debris flow in Shangyao valley,which is of the middle risk class.
