Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Using Set Pair Analysis Models:Take Beichuan County as an Example

Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.

A Modified Certainty Coefficient Method(M-CF) for Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment:A Case Study for the Wenchuan Earthquake Meizoseismal Areas

In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method(FW), certainty coefficient method(CF) and geomorphic information entropy method(GI). Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method(M-CF) to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, wereused to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas.

Physico-mechanical performance of debris-flow deposits with particular reference to characterization and recognition of debris flow-related sediments

To characterize and recognize the debris flow-related deposits,the physico-mechanical performance of four deposits from the Dongyuege(DYG),Shawa(SW),Jiangjia Gully(JJG),and Gengdi(GD)debris flows in southwest China is investigated through laboratory analyses and tests.The four debris-flow materials can all be remolded into coherent,homogeneous cylinders with high densification and strength–porosity of 25%-36%,mean pore-throat radius of 0.46-5.89μm,median pore-throat radius of 0.43-4.28μm,P-wave velocity of 800-1200 m/s,modulus of elasticity of 28-103 MPa,unconfined compressive strength(UCS)of 220-760 kPa,and cohesion of 65-281 kPa.Based on the comparison in slurryability and formability among debris-flow deposits,granular flow deposits,fluvial deposits,residual lateritic clay and loess,whether a sediment can be cast into competent cylinders for physico-mechanical tests can be regarded as a diagnostic evidence of old debris-flow deposits.The discrepancy in physico-mechanical properties among the four debris-flow deposits suggests that the combination of foregoing physico-mechanical parameters can characterize assembling characteristics of debris flow-related sediments including grain size distribution,mineralogy,and accidental detritus.Four deposited sediments above can be surprisingly classified as hard soil-soft rocks according to UCS,and the hard soil-soft rock behaviors can advance the further understanding of debris flows.