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北京山区暴雨泥石流预警模型研究 被引量:4
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作者 翟淑花 于家烁 +2 位作者 程素珍 刘欢欢 冒建 《人民长江》 北大核心 2021年第3期16-20,共5页
北京山区泥石流多以暴雨类沟道侵蚀型泥石流为主,具有暴发频率低、间歇周期长、群发性显著等特点,在无丰富泥石流事件支持的情况下,泥石流预警一直是个难题。在北京地区已有泥石流预警模型校验的基础上,以泥石流流域降雨精细监测为基础... 北京山区泥石流多以暴雨类沟道侵蚀型泥石流为主,具有暴发频率低、间歇周期长、群发性显著等特点,在无丰富泥石流事件支持的情况下,泥石流预警一直是个难题。在北京地区已有泥石流预警模型校验的基础上,以泥石流流域降雨精细监测为基础,将场次累计降雨量(R)和最大小时雨强(I)视为反映暴雨泥石流雨场特征的二维离散随机变量,分析了不同雨场累计降雨量(R)和最大小时雨强(I)的联合概率分布特征,绘制了降雨安全等概率线;在此基础上,以近年来少数泥石流样本为基础,以降雨安全概率4%曲线作为北京地区泥石流预警线。研究结果表明:当雨强大于60 mm/h,过程雨量达到220 mm时,泥石流发生的可能性极大,可满足现有地质环境背景下暴雨泥石流预警需求,并可为无丰富泥石流灾害样本地区的泥石流预警提供技术参考。 展开更多
关键词 暴雨泥石流 泥石流预警模型 精细分析 联合概率分布 北京山区
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北京山区泥石流预警阈值初步研究 被引量:6
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作者 贾三满 路璐 +3 位作者 翟淑花 王海芝 王珊珊 齐干 《城市地质》 2016年第3期1-7,共7页
泥石流预警阈值,是突发地质灾害防灾减灾的重要参考指标。本文结合北京山区泥石流灾害特点和已有降雨阈值研究成果,一方面在泥石流沟易发性、物源和危害人数进行分级的基础上,提出不同级别沟谷在不同前期降雨条件下,不同发灾概率的激发... 泥石流预警阈值,是突发地质灾害防灾减灾的重要参考指标。本文结合北京山区泥石流灾害特点和已有降雨阈值研究成果,一方面在泥石流沟易发性、物源和危害人数进行分级的基础上,提出不同级别沟谷在不同前期降雨条件下,不同发灾概率的激发雨量,极大地方便了中短期预警实际工作;另一方面将泥石流流域降雨量、土壤含水率、次声、泥位4个参数,作为泥石流短临灾害预警关键物理参数,开展了泥石流专业监测设备预警阈值研究。最终,从技术层面上构建不同时间维度的泥石流监测预警阈值体系,为北京山区泥石流监测预警提供技术支持。 展开更多
关键词 泥石流预警 临界雨量 土壤含水率 次声 泥位
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基于GIS的泥石流预警系统实现
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作者 郭漩 《创新科技》 2014年第12期82-83,共2页
为加强泥石流灾害的监控和预警措施,有效降低灾害损失,我们以MapGIS K9作为基础平台,采用C/S模式,使用C#语言进行组件式二次开发,建立起泥石流预警安全信息的管理平台。系统实现了地图查询、信息管理以及泥石流的灾害预警和基于DE... 为加强泥石流灾害的监控和预警措施,有效降低灾害损失,我们以MapGIS K9作为基础平台,采用C/S模式,使用C#语言进行组件式二次开发,建立起泥石流预警安全信息的管理平台。系统实现了地图查询、信息管理以及泥石流的灾害预警和基于DEM的受灾分析等功能,为地质灾害预警提供了更为科学便捷的途径。 展开更多
关键词 组件式GIS 泥石流.预警系统 DEM
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泥石流松散物源堆积体启动预警判据研究 被引量:5
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作者 翟淑花 高谦 张玲玲 《人民长江》 北大核心 2017年第S2期129-132,共4页
松散物源堆积体为泥石流触发的重要因素,研究降雨入渗条件下松散物源堆积体的强度特征对认识泥石流启动机理具有重要意义。以北京市房山区南窖乡北安沟为例,借助于野外调查、室内直剪试验、力学分析以及数值模拟等手段,分析了松散物源... 松散物源堆积体为泥石流触发的重要因素,研究降雨入渗条件下松散物源堆积体的强度特征对认识泥石流启动机理具有重要意义。以北京市房山区南窖乡北安沟为例,借助于野外调查、室内直剪试验、力学分析以及数值模拟等手段,分析了松散物源堆积体在不同含水率下的强度衰减特征,获得了含水率与物源堆积体强度参数之间的相关关系,并以含水率为主控参量,分别采用极限平衡法和强度折减法建立了松散物源堆积体失稳时临界含水率模型,计算出北安沟松散物源堆积体失稳的临界含水率为28.72%。研究结果可为该区域泥石流启动辅助预警提供技术支持。 展开更多
关键词 松散堆积体 含水率 极限平衡 强度折减 泥石流预警
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三峡库区泥石流灾害预警研究(英文) 被引量:4
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作者 周金星 《中国水土保持科学》 CSCD 2010年第6期6-13,共8页
采用三峡库区有历史记录的40次泥石流灾害的日降雨量以及前15 d的降雨量,当日1 h及10 min最大降雨强度等降雨参数作为训练数据,在对研究区进行荒溪分类以及灾害危险区域制图的基础上,结合雨季的降雨特征监测以及实时天气预报模型,构建... 采用三峡库区有历史记录的40次泥石流灾害的日降雨量以及前15 d的降雨量,当日1 h及10 min最大降雨强度等降雨参数作为训练数据,在对研究区进行荒溪分类以及灾害危险区域制图的基础上,结合雨季的降雨特征监测以及实时天气预报模型,构建了基于神经网络的三峡库区泥石流灾害实时预报模型。详细阐述了应用神经网络方法建立三峡库区泥石流灾害实时预报模型的关键技术,包括确定输入层、输出层以及隐含层的神经节点,建立学习知识库以及各节点初始权重等相关指标。该模型可以预测泥石流发生的临界降雨量、警戒降雨量以及避灾降雨量等指标,因此,依据当地降雨的实时监测数据或天气预报,就可以预测泥石流的发生几率,从而减少泥石流发生的直接危害。模型采样GIS技术以及国际先进的软、硬件技术,系统性能稳定,运行结果准确性较高,且具有广泛的应用性。该模型为可视化信息系统,可以通过该系统监测荒溪类型变化,进行危险区域制图,实现荒溪科学管理,为三峡库区泥石流灾害预警及防治的管理和决策提供科学参考。 展开更多
关键词 实时预报模型 神经网络技术 危险区制图 泥石流灾害预警系统
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基于三参Weibull分布的泥石流降雨动态预警模型 被引量:1
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作者 魏兰婷 许强 杨琴 《科学技术与工程》 北大核心 2015年第34期144-149,共6页
降雨是触发泥石流灾害的重要因素。现有的泥石流预警模型多为半定量的预警,通过划分不同的预警级别来预报灾情,没有做到任意时刻泥石流爆发的定量计算。通过分析文家沟5次大型泥石流灾害的降雨数据,引入泥石流爆发降雨驱动指标RTI并运... 降雨是触发泥石流灾害的重要因素。现有的泥石流预警模型多为半定量的预警,通过划分不同的预警级别来预报灾情,没有做到任意时刻泥石流爆发的定量计算。通过分析文家沟5次大型泥石流灾害的降雨数据,引入泥石流爆发降雨驱动指标RTI并运用三参Weibull分布确定了绵竹市清平镇文家沟泥石流的降雨阈值,提出了计算任意雨量下的泥石流的瞬时发生概率。最后通过Weibull分布结果和泥石流堆积方量的计算值拟合出文家沟泥石流爆发概率和堆积方量的关系。该模型不仅实现了文家沟泥石流灾害的动态定量预警,同时也给出了任意概率下泥石流堆积方量的域值区间。最后以2012.8.13文家沟泥石流事件为例验证了该模型,说明三参Weibull分布可以用于泥石流分析并建立预警模型,可将此法推广到其他地质灾害的分析及预警中。 展开更多
关键词 WEIBULL分布 泥石流降雨预警模型 文家沟 降雨阈值 堆积方量预测
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基于北京大洼沟的泥石流综合预警模型的模拟试验设计
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作者 颜芳 骆斌 +2 位作者 张新伟 刘俊明 孙芳 《中文科技期刊数据库(文摘版)工程技术》 2021年第7期353-354,共2页
本文主要就泥石流综合预警模型的模拟试验设计进行分析,试验以北京市密云县大洼沟为试验原型,设计了一套泥石流综合预警模型试验方案。
关键词 北京大洼沟 泥石流综合预警模型 模拟试验设计
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绵竹清平文家沟泥石流监测方案设计
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作者 柏永岩 彭静 《四川地质学报》 2011年第S2期81-85,共5页
对文家沟未来泥石流发生的可能成灾形式或风险划分为崩滑型、溃决型、侵蚀型,并基于DEM水文模型对地表水径流漫流网络进行了分析,按自然分水线分成8个不嵌套的子流域。在上述分析的基础上开展监测预警设计、部署监测网络:遥测雨量监测点... 对文家沟未来泥石流发生的可能成灾形式或风险划分为崩滑型、溃决型、侵蚀型,并基于DEM水文模型对地表水径流漫流网络进行了分析,按自然分水线分成8个不嵌套的子流域。在上述分析的基础上开展监测预警设计、部署监测网络:遥测雨量监测点7处、高清视频影像监测点3处、泥位(水位)监测点3处、地下水渗压监测点5处,及全站仪定期地表变形测量。 展开更多
关键词 文家沟 泥石流监测预警
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分层介质HF雷达回波对泥石流地区的检测与预警 被引量:1
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作者 金亚秋 徐丰 《中国科学:地球科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第2期230-237,共8页
泥石流与滑坡的监测通常是通过地质调查,确定应予以避开或重点防护的区域,进行离散的定点检测或观测.这种传统的观测无论在时间与地点的选取上都有极大的局限性,难以对付突发的泥石流地区做出及时与准确的预警.本文提出用空基高频(HF,10... 泥石流与滑坡的监测通常是通过地质调查,确定应予以避开或重点防护的区域,进行离散的定点检测或观测.这种传统的观测无论在时间与地点的选取上都有极大的局限性,难以对付突发的泥石流地区做出及时与准确的预警.本文提出用空基高频(HF,100~300MHz)雷达窄脉冲探测地表层结构的方案.HF雷达可穿透十米左右的地表层,检测作为泥石流激发因素的地表层含水量变化.本文以粗糙界面与散射体的地表介质层模型,推导了HF雷达脉冲波时域Mueller矩阵解,数值模拟极化脉冲雷达距离程回波强度变化,检测正常时与泥石流预警时雷达距离程回波的差异,在达到一定的差异阈值时,做出泥石流预警. 展开更多
关键词 HF雷达回波 MUELLER矩阵 地表层探测 泥石流预警
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Monitoring and Warning of Landslides and Debris Flows Using an Optical Fiber Sensor Technology 被引量:12
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作者 PEI Huafu CUI Peng +3 位作者 YIN Jianhua ZHU Honghu CHEN Xiaoqing PEI Laizheng 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2011年第5期728-738,共11页
Landslides and debris flows are typical geo-hazards which occur in hilly or mountainous regions. Debris flows may result from landslides. Geotechnical instrumentation plays an important role in monitoring and warning ... Landslides and debris flows are typical geo-hazards which occur in hilly or mountainous regions. Debris flows may result from landslides. Geotechnical instrumentation plays an important role in monitoring and warning of landslides and resulted debris flows. Traditional technologies for monitoring landslides and debris flows have certain limitations. The new optical fiber sensors presented in this paper can overcome those limitations. This paper presents two new optical fiber sensor systems: one is the Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG)-based in-place inclinometer for monitoring landslides and the other is the FBG-based column-net system for monitoring debris flows. This paper presents the calibration results of FBG-based in-place inclinometers in laboratory. It is found that the calibration results are in good agreement with theoretical results. Both the FBG-based in-place inclinometers and the FBG-based column-net system have been installed at a site in Weijiagou valley, Beichuan County, Sichuan Province of China. Some preliminary results have been obtained and reported in the paper. The advantages of the FBG monitoring systems and their potential applications are also presented. 展开更多
关键词 LANDSLIDE Debris flow Fiber Bragg Grating In-place inclinometer Column-net system
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Characteristic Rainfall for Warning of Debris Flows 被引量:12
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作者 HU Kaiheng Cui Peng +2 位作者 Wang Chuanchang Li Yong Lu Xiaobing 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2010年第3期207-214,共8页
A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow.The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-... A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow.The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase,and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows.Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin,Yunnan Province,in southwestern China,demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall.It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram.The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution.It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin,a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin. 展开更多
关键词 Debris flow Wenchuan earthquake warning rainfall threshold statistics of daily rainfalldistribution
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Monitoring and Recognition of Debris Flow Infrasonic Signals 被引量:12
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作者 LIU Dun-long LENG Xiao-peng +2 位作者 WEI Fang-qiang ZHANG Shao-jie HONG Yong 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第4期797-815,共19页
Low frequency infrasonic waves are emitted during the formation and movement of debris flows, which are detectable in a radius of several kilometers, thereby to serve as the precondition for their remote monitoring.Ho... Low frequency infrasonic waves are emitted during the formation and movement of debris flows, which are detectable in a radius of several kilometers, thereby to serve as the precondition for their remote monitoring.However, false message often arises from the simple mechanics of alarms under the ambient noise interference.To improve the accuracy of infrasound monitoring for early-warning against debris flows, it is necessary to analyze the monitor information to identify in them the infrasonic signals characteristic of debris flows.Therefore, a large amount of debris flow infrasound and ambient noises have been collected from different sources for analysis to sum up their frequency spectra, sound pressures, waveforms, time duration and other correlated characteristics so as to specify the key characteristic parameters for different sound sources in completing the development of the recognition system of debris flow infrasonic signals for identifying their possible existence in the monitor signals.The recognition performance of the system has been verified by simulating tests and long-term in-situ monitoring of debris flows in Jiangjia Gully,Dongchuan, China to be of high accuracy and applicability.The recognition system can provide the local government and residents with accurate precautionary information about debris flows in preparation for disaster mitigation and minimizing the loss of life and property. 展开更多
关键词 Debris flow INFRASOUND Interference noise MONITORING Signal recognition
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Application of extension theory in risk zoning of debris flow in Beijing 被引量:8
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作者 BAI Liping WANG Yeyao +1 位作者 SUN Jiali GONG Bin 《Global Geology》 2009年第1期40-45,56,共7页
The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the... The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow 展开更多
关键词 debris flow risk zoning extension theory AHP GIS
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Outlining a stepwise,multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system:an example of application in Aizi Valley,China 被引量:1
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作者 CHEN Ning-sheng Javed Iqbal TANO LI +5 位作者 HU Gui-sheng WANG Feng-niang YANG Cheng-lin DING Hai-tao HE Na WANG Tao 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第9期1527-1543,共17页
In recent years, the increasing frequency of debris flow demands enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of warning systems. Effective warning systems are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also c... In recent years, the increasing frequency of debris flow demands enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of warning systems. Effective warning systems are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. Currently, the key issues are the imbalance between the limited lifespan of equipment, the relatively long period between the recurrences of such hazards, and the wide range of critical rainfall that trigger these disasters. This paper attempts to provide a stepwise multi-parameter debris flow warning system after taking into account the shortcomings observed in other warning systems. The whole system is divided into five stages. Differentwarning levels can be issued based on the critical rainfall thresholds. Monitoring starts when early warning is issued and it continues with debris flow near warning, triggering warning, movement warning and hazard warning stages. For early warning, historical archives of earthquake and drought are used to choose a debris flow-susceptible site for further monitoring. Secondly, weather forecasts provide an alert of possible near warning. Hazardous precipitation, model calculation and debris flow initiation tests, pore pressure sensors and water content sensors are combined to check the critical rainfall and to publically announce a triggering warning. In the final two stages, equipment such as rainfall gauges, flow stage sensors, vibration sensors, low sound sensors and infrasound meters are used to assess movement processes and issue hazardwarnings. In addition to these warnings, communitybased knowledge and information is also obtained and discussed in detail. The proposed stepwise, multiparameter debris flow monitoring and warning system has been applied in Aizi valley China which continuously monitors the debris flow activities. 展开更多
关键词 Debris Flow Monitoring system Warning system Aizi Valley Rainfall threshold
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