Interannual variability of the sea surface salinity and its related freshwater flux in the tropical Pacific:A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

This paper assesses the interannual variabilities of simulated sea surface salinity(SSS)and freshwater flux(FWF)in the tropical Pacific from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6).The authors focus on comparing the simulated SSS and FWF responses to El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)from two generations of models developed by the same group.The results show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can perform well in simulating the spatial distributions of the SSS and FWF responses associated with ENSO,as well as their relationship.It is found that most CMIP6 models have improved in simulating the geographical distribution of the SSS and FWF interannual variability in the tropical Pacific compared to CMIP5 models.In particular,CMIP6 models have corrected the underestimation of the spatial relationship of the FWF and SSS variability with ENSO in the central-western Pacific.In addition,CMIP6 models outperform CMIP5 models in simulating the FWF interannual variability(spatial distribution and intensity)in the tropical Pacific.However,as a whole,CMIP6 models do not show improved skill scores for SSS interannual variability,which is due to their overestimation of the intensity in some models.Large uncertainties exist in simulating the interannual variability of SSS among CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and some improvements with respect to physical processes are needed.

Observed Relationship between Surface Freshwater Flux and Salinity in The North Indian Ocean

Using 10-year (2001 10) monthly evaporation, precipitation, and sea surface salinity (SSS) datasets, the relationship between local freshwater flux and SSS in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) is evaluated quantitatively. The results suggest a highly positive linear correlation between freshwater flux and SSS in the Arabian Sea (correlation coefficient, R=0.74) and the western equatorial Indian Ocean (R=0.73), whereas the linear relationships are relatively weaker in the Bay of Bengal (R=0.50) and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (R=0.40). Additionally, the interannual variations of freshwater flux and SSS and their mutual relationship are investigated in four sub- regions for pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons separately. The satellite retrievals of SSS from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius missions can provide continuous and consistent SSS fields for a better understanding of its variability and the differences between the freshwater flux and SSS signals, which are commonly thought to be linearly related.

Distinguished Effects of Interannual Salinity Variability on the Development of the Central-Pacific El Ni o Events

El Nio events in the central equatorial Pacific (CP) are gaining increased attention,due to their increasing intensity within the global warming context.Various physical processes have been identified in the climate system that can be responsible for the modulation of El Nio,especially the effects of interannual salinity variability.In this work,a comprehensive data analysis is performed to illustrate the effects of interannual salinity variability using surface and subsurface salinity fields from the Met Office ENSEMBLES (EN3) quality controlled ocean dataset.It is demonstrated that during the developing phase of an El Nio event,a negative sea surface salinity (SSS) anomaly in the western-central basin acts to freshen the mixed layer (ML),decrease oceanic density in the upper ocean,and stabilize the upper layers.These related oceanic processes tend to reduce the vertical mixing and entrainment of subsurface water at the base of the ML,which further enhances the warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Nio event.However,the effects of interannually variable salinity are much more significant during the CP-El Nio than during the eastern Pacific (EP) El Nio,indicating that the salinity effect might be an important contributor to the development of CP-El Nio events.

Simulation of global ocean acidification and chemical habitats of shallow-and cold-water coral reefs

Using the UVic Earth System Model, this study simulated the change of seawater chemistry and analyzed the chemical habitat surrounding shallow- and cold-water coral reefs from the year 1800 to 2300 employing RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model results showed that the global ocean will continue to absorb atmospheric CO2. Global mean surface ocean temperature will rise 1.1-2.8 K at the end of the 21st century across RCP scenarios. Meanwhile, the global mean surface ocean pH will drop 0.14--0.42 and the ocean surface mean con- centration of carbonate will decrease 20%--51% across the RCP scenarios. The saturated state of sea water with respect to calcite carbonate minerals （t2） will decrease rapidly. During the pre-industrial period, 99% of the shallow-water coral reefs were surrounded by seawater with t2 〉 3.5 and 87% of the deep-sea coral reefs were surrounded by seawater with aragonite supersaturation. Within the 21st century, except for the high mitigation scenario of RCP2.6, almost none shallow-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with g2 〉 3.5. Under the intensive emission scenario of RCP8.5, by the year 2100, the aragonite saturation horizon will rise to 308 m under the sea surface from 1138 m at the pre- industrial period, thus 73% of the cold-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with aragonite undersaturation. By the year 2300, only 5% of the cold-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with aragonite supersaturation.