高压天然气管道穿越大型河流设计应注意的问题

本文对长输天然气管线穿越大型河流(黄河),从选线路到勘察设计对穿越河流的防洪评价影响及在施工中应注意的问题进行了阐释和并给出建议。

Rapid assessment of flood loss based on neural network ensemble

Considering the defects of low accuracy and slow speed existing in traditional flood loss assessment, firstly, the technical route of flood loss assessment was presented based on the neural network ensemble. Secondly, through the study of certain country of Poyang Lake district, the flood loss assessment indicators of the test area were analyzed and extracted by utilizing analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the weights of the impact factors were assigned. Subsequently, the approaches to generate individuals and conclusions of neural network ensemble model were also investigated. In the platform of C# language and neural network library under AForge.NET open source, a flood loss assessment program which could rapidly build neural network ensemble models was developed. Finally, the proposed method was tested and verified. The comparison results between the assessment results of the proposed method and the actual statistical flood loss proved the feasibility of this method, thus a new approach for flood loss assessment was provided.

长三角区光伏电站的防洪措施及其效用研究

长三角地区入汛以来的强降雨周期,容易造成东南沿海地区发生严重的洪涝灾害及一系列其他问题。通过描述在建、已建光伏电站在洪涝灾害影响下应当采取的正确处理方法,说明在夏季暴雨及洪水等不良因素影响下,如何有效避免或减小光伏电站的财产损失。结合镇江句容15 MW渔光互补光伏项目为例进行分析,最后提出优化光伏电站防洪的措施方案。

Flood Vulnerability Assessment： A Multiscale, Multitemporal and Multidisciplinary Approach

Recent catastrophic events related to floods in Colombia reveal again the situation of disaster as a development issue not solved in the country. It is necessary to analyze in more detail the areas under threat and their respective vulnerability to the different mechanisms can generate flooding events and make adjustments in the assessment of disaster risks for the appropriate decision-making at local, regional and national levels. This paper presents a research project in its first phase, whose main objective is to develop a methodology for vulnerability assessment from a multiscale, multitemporal and multidisciplinary perspectives, combining the use of indicators and a spatial information system to analyze exposure and vulnerability at regional and local level in specific areas. This methodological tool will also enable local and regional authorities to identify the most appropriate strategies to reduce vulnerability and adaptation options, and make better decisions in assessing disaster risk. The information generated in this study will contribute to public policy action structured to correct short- and medium-term situations of actual or potential vulnerability, which can also be used in other activities of territorial and environmental planning, developing technology transfer activities and training associated with the research project in the service of the authorities and communities. Results obtained of the vulnerability analysis for a Colombian study area will relate to the hazards obtained in a parallel project whose goal is to identify the best risk management strategies through the development of GIS （geographic information system）-based scenarios for different risk and vulnerability reduction options.

Application of Livelihood Vulnerability Index to Assess Risks from Flood Vulnerability and Climate VariabilitymA Case Study in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

An Giang province in the Mekong Delta is the most vulnerable province the impact of flooding and climate variability. Thousand of households are at risk due to severe annual floods. This study applied the LVI （livelihood vulnerability index） to estimate flood vulnerability of Phu Huu and Ta Danh villages in An Giang province. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, health, social networks, physical, financial and natural resources, natural disasters and climate variability were collected from a survey of 120 households in each village. From these data the LVI of each village was calculated. Results show that the overall LV1 of Phu Huu village, located in the early flooded zone, is higher than that of Ta Danh village, located in the late flooded zone. The analysis also indicated that this practical method can be applied for other purposes such as to monitor vulnerability, evaluate development programs or policy effectiveness by incorporating with scenario comparison.

A High Precision Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Flood Disaster Loss Based on Improved Genetic Programming

Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the complex relation between the input and output data of the system of flood disaster loss. Genetic programming (GP) solves problems by using ideas from genetic algorithm and generates computer programs automatically. In this study a new method named the evaluation of the grade of flood disaster loss (EGFD) on the basis of improved genetic programming (IGP) is presented (IGP-EGFD). The flood disaster area and the direct economic loss are taken as the evaluation indexes of flood disaster loss. Obviously that the larger the evaluation index value, the larger the corresponding value of the grade of flood disaster loss is. Consequently the IGP code is designed to make the value of the grade of flood disaster be an increasing function of the index value. The result of the application of the IGP-EGFD model to Henan Province shows that a good function expression can be obtained within a bigger searched function space; and the model is of high precision and considerable practical significance. Thus, IGP-EGFD can be widely used in automatic modeling and other evaluation systems.

Establishing the Basic Indicator for the Calculation of the Flood Vulnerability Index for River Basins in Vietnam

Along with the concept, the method of assessing the vulnerability is becoming more and more diversified in many directions and fields. In general, these methods can be classified into two groups： （i） direct-qualitative （survey methods, integrated map ...） and （ii） indirectly-quantitative （method index）. The set of indicator plays a very important role in the successful application to any method and brings reliable results. Each basin or area with different natural geography, economics and society and so on, requires a different set of indicator. However, assessing any river basin in Vietnam needs the basic indicator. This study will establish the basic indicator for the construction of flood vulnerability index in Vietnam.

Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In this work, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potential flood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area’s flood situation (as affected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc.), and have made water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of different flood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to calculate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses, and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study’s main conclusions are: 1) Human activities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff and flooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construction has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated water level in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses to increase in recent years.

Assessment of agri-spillways as a soil erosion protection measure in Mediterranean sloping vineyards

Suitable vineyard soils enhance soil stability and biodiversity which in turn protects roots against erosion and nutrient losses. There is a lack of information related to inexpensive and suitable methods and tools to protect the soil in Mediterranean sloping vineyards(>25° of slope inclination). In the vineyards of the Montes de Málaga(southern Spain), a sustainable land management practice that controls soil erosion is actually achieved by tilling rills in the down-slope direction to canalize water and sediments. Because of their design and use, we call them agri-spillways. In this research, we assessed two agri-spillways(between 10 m and 15 m length, and slopes between 25.8° and 35°) by performing runoff experiments under extreme conditions(a motor driven pump that discharged water flows up to 1.33 l s^(-1) for 12 to 15 minutes: ≈1000 l). The final results showed: i) a great capacity by these rills to canalize large amounts of water and sediments; and, ii) higher water flow speeds(between 0.16 m s-1 and 0.28 m s^(-1)) and sediment concentrationrates(up to 1538.6 g l^(-1)) than typically found in other Mediterranean areas and land uses(such as badlands, rangelands or extensive crops of olives and almonds). The speed of water flow and the sediment concentration were much higher in the shorter and steeper rill. We concluded that agri-spillways, given correct planning and maintenance, can be a potential solution as an inexpensive method to protect the soil in sloping Mediterranean vineyards.

Climate Change Risk Research: A Case Study on Flood Disaster Risk in China

This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.

Evaluation of Infiltration Capacity and Water Retention Potential of Amended Soil Using Bamboo Charcoal and Humus for Urban Flood Prevention

In Japan, floods occur frequently in urban areas because non-infiltrating areas are seeing increased urbanization. To prevent floods, urban basins must improve the infiltration capacity and water retention of the whole basin. There are several basic technologies for river basin management, such as infiltration trenches or rainwater storage. However, a method of soil amendment that prevents flood disasters has not been established. This study aims to evaluate the infiltration capacity of soil amendments using bamboo charcoal and humus. A constant-head infiltration test and rainfall simulation were conducted to evaluate the properties of the soil amendments. The constant-head infiltration test＇s results showed that soils mixed with 30% humus had the greatest potential for influencing initial and final infiltration rates, and the more the mixing rates of bamboo charcoal and humus were increased, the higher the water retention capacity. The results of the rainfall simulation showed that soils mixed with 30% humus had the highest final infiltration rates and lowest multiplication spillage. To reduce the runoff volume using soil amendment technology, it is important to delay overland flow, and the hydraulic properties of the soils mixed with bamboo charcoal and humus were as effective as those of granite soils.

Advanced Methods of Evaluating Benefits from Improved Flood Immunity in Queensland

The regular occurrence and the high costs of flooding to both road agencies and communities is a strong impetus to investigate the methodologies applied to evaluating flood immunity road projects. Very little literature exists on methods of evaluating the benefits of improving flood immunity through better road infrastructure. This paper attempts to address some of the numerous issues hindering the accurate evaluation of flood immunity road projects. The methodologies presented in this paper are designed to evaluate benefits that are not normally included or not fully considered in evaluations; such benefits include reduced flood related road accidents, costs of not travelling during the closure period and additional costs from unanticipated flood events. A key focus of the paper is the consideration of the evaluation of improved flood immunity from a network perspective rather than the typical approach of evaluating flood immunity projects in isolation to each other. The application of the proposed methodologies is demonstrated with a hypothetical example of a typical rural network subjected to regular flooding. The results of the analysis, conducted using the proposed methodologies, reveals that the currently applied methodologies account for less than half the likely value of benefits of a package of projects that will prevent the complete isolation of communities during serious flood events.

Variable sets method for urban flood vulnerability assessment

On the basis of dialectics basic laws and mathematical theorems of variable sets,this paper proposes a variable sets method for urban flood vulnerability assessment.In this method,the comprehensive relative membership degree of multi-indices is represented by an index relative difference degree,which follows the characteristics of dialectical philosophy and mathematics.According to the quality-quantity exchange theorem,the relative difference degree of two adjacent levels(h and h+1),whose index standard interval values cross the boundaries,equals 0 in the urban flood vulnerability assessment.On the basis of the opposite unity theorem,the sum of relative membership degrees should be equal to 1 when indices lie in the adjacent degrees h and h+1.The variable sets method is proved to be theoretically rigorous and computationally simple.This paper takes 29 cities of Hunan province as an example to assess the urban flood vulnerability,and then compares the results from this newly developed method with the assessment results obtained from the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and fuzzy set pair analysis methods.

A Community Resilience Evaluation and Optimization Strategy based on Stormwater Management

In the context of disaster normalization,the concept of“resilience”has been gradually introduced into the field of disaster prevention and mitigation in urban communities.In order to resist the increasingly frequent disasters caused by extreme weather,it is necessary to shift the focus of building resilient urban communities to the level of stormwater management.Community resilience is a disaster prevention and mitigation capability based on community resources.In order to solve the deficiency of storm and flood management in the current construction of resilient communities in China,it is necessary to establish a quantitative evaluation system to evaluate it.This paper uses the analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method to establish a community resilience evaluation system from the perspectives of community material space level,community management level and individual level.Then three communities in Hefei City,Anhui Province are selected for practical application of the system,and corresponding optimization and transformation strategies are proposed.The results show that:(1)The resilience of community stormwater management is closely related to the integrated environment of the community,the allocation of flood control facilities and the daily disaster prevention and mitigation management;(2)The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation and the awareness of public participation of the residents in all communities are relatively weak,and the communities invest less in the popularization of stormwater management wisdom;and(3)Resilient communities should not only pay attention to the construction of non-engineering disaster prevention measures,but also to the application of small-scale green infrastructure oriented toward stormwater management.