ON THE HYDRAULIC FAILURE PROBABILITY OF FLOOD CONTROL DAMS

In flood control dams it is not only the failure to prevent flood larger than their design carrying capacity, but also the uncertainties of hydraulic factors that cause disasters. In general, the hydraulic risk is not considered in most of the hydrological analysis in floodproofing plan and design. In this paper, a method of evaluating the hydraulic risk is developed by employing risk theory, and the concept can easily be extended to other types of risk analysis. As a result, it is possible not to consider the hydraulic resks when the design hydrologic risk of flood control dam is lger. Otherwise, the hydraulic risks must be noticed. The research is very helpful for the development of the flood control theory used at present.

Climate Change Risk Research: A Case Study on Flood Disaster Risk in China

This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.

Influence of Land Use/Cover Change on Storm Runoff—A Case Study of Xitiaoxi River Basin in Upstream of Taihu Lake Watershed

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is one of the main boundary conditions which influence many hydrologic processes. In view of the importance of Taihu Lake Watershed in China and the urgency of discovering the impacts of LUCC on storm runoff, two flood events under five land cover scenarios in the Xitiaoxi River Basin of the upstream of Taihu Lake watershed were simulated by distributed hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS. The influences of each land cover on storm runoff were discussed. It was concluded that under the same rainstorm the ascending order of runoff coefficient and peak flow produced by the 5 different land covers were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land; the descending order of swelling time were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land. Scenario of built-up land was the first to reach peak flow, then arable land, grassland, shrub, and woodland. There were close relationships between the runoff coefficients produced by the 5 different land covers. The degrees of impacts on runoff coefficient of land cover change modes were sorted by descending: woodland to built-up land, shrub to built-up land, grassland to built-up land, arable land to built-up land, woodland to arable land, shrub to arable land, arable land to grassland, shrub to grassland, grassland to arable land, and woodland to shrub. Urbanization will contribute to flood disaster, while forestation will mitigate flood disaster.

Full 2D Hydrodynamic Modelling of Rainfall-induced Flash Floods

Mountain catchments are prone to flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Enhanced understanding of the generation and evolution processes of flash floods is essential for effective flood risk management. However, traditional distributed hydrological models based on kinematic and diffusion wave approximations ignore certain physical mechanisms of flash floods and thus bear excessive uncertainty. Here a hydrodynamic model is presented for flash floods based on the full two-dimensional shallow water equations incorporating rainfall and infiltration. Laboratory experiments of overland flows were modelled to illustrate the capability of the model. Then the model was applied to resolve two observed flash floods of distinct magnitudes in the Lengkou catchment in Shanxi Province, China. The present model is shown to be able to reproduce the flood flows fairly well compared to the observed data. The spatial distribution of rainfall is shown to be crucial for the modelling of flash floods. Sensitivity analyses of the model parameters reveal that the stage and discharge hydrographs are more sensitive to the Manning roughness and initial water content in the catchment than to the Green-Ampt head. Most notably, as the flash flood augments due to heavier rainfall, the modelling results agree with observed data better, which clearly characterizes the paramount role of rainfall in dictating the floods. From practical perspectives, the proposed model is more appropriate for modelling large flash floods.

Extreme Rainfall Events and Associated Natural Hazards in Alaknanda Valley, Indian Himalayan Region

Entire Himalayan region is vulnerable to rain-induced （torrential rainfall） hazards in the form of flash flood, cloudburst or glacial lake outburst flood Flash floods and cloudburst are generally caused by high intensity rainfall followed by debris flow or landslide often resulting into blockade of river channels. The examples of some major disasters caused by torrential rainfall events in last fifty years are the flash floods of 1968 in Teesta valley, in 1993 and 2000 in Sutlej valley, in 1978 in Bhagirathi and in 1970 in Alaknanda river valleys. The formation of landslide dams and subsequent breaching is also associated with such rainfall events. These dams may persist for years or may burst within a short span of its formation. Due to sudden surge of water level in the river valleys, havoc and panic are created in the down stream. In Maknanda valley, frequencies of such extreme rainfall events are found to be increasing in last two decades. However, the monthly trend of extreme rainfall events has partly indicated this increase. In most of the years extreme rainfall events and cloudburst disaster were reported in August during the later part of the monsoon season.

Dam Failures in the 20th Century： Nearly 1,000 Avoidable Victims in Italy Alone

The frequency of large dam failures all over the world, with a high toll of lives lost, pinpoints the still unsolved problems of flood risk resulting from the presence of large dams in built-up areas. Some of these failures and other related incidents took place in Italy in the past century. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the three worst cases of dam failures occurring in Italy, analyzing the causes which led to collapse. They are the dams of Gleno （1923）, Molare （1935） and Stava （1985）.

INFLUENCE FACTORS AND PREDICTION METHOD ON FLOOD/DROUGHT DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH CHINA

By using the significance test of two-dimensional wind field anomalies and Monte Carlo simulation experiment scheme, the significance features of wind field anomalies are investigated in relation to flood/drought during the annually first rainy season in south China. Results show that westem Pacific subtropical high and wind anomalies over the northeast of Lake Baikal and central Indian Ocean are important factors. Wind anomalies over the northem India in January and the northwest Pacific in March may be strong prediction signals. Study also shows that rainfall in south China bears a close relation to the geopotential height filed over the northern Pacific in March.

The Natural Forest Protection Program in China： A Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang Province

In 1998, the Chinese Government implemented the NFPP （Natural Forest Protection Program）, which included logging restrictions, protected areas, replanting, and a range of other policies aimed at safeguarding the state of the country＇s forests and reducing the risk of erosion and flooding. A second phase of this program is currently being discussed. In this paper, contingent valuation is used to estimate the WTP （willingness to pay） for maintaining the program among the inhabitants in Heilongjiang Province in northern China. The results show that, even with fairly conservative assumptions, the aggregated WTP for maintaining the program for another five years is some 3.24 billion yuan per year. This can be compared with the current cost of the Program in the province, which is some 1.57 billion yuan per year.

A catastrophic debris flow in the Wenchuan Earthquake area,July 2013：characteristics,formation,and risk reduction

In the Wenchuan Earthquake area,many co-seismic landslides formed blocking-dams in debris flow channels. This blocking and bursting of landslide dams amplifies the debris flow scale and results in severe catastrophes. The catastrophic debris flow that occurred in Qipan gully(Wenchuan,Southwest China) on July 11,2013 was caused by intense rainfall and upstream cascading bursting of landslide dams. To gain an understanding of the processes of dam bursting and subsequent debris flow scale amplification effect,we attempted to estimate the bursting debris flow peak discharges along the main gully and analyzed the scale amplification process. The results showed that the antecedent and triggering rainfalls for 11 July debris flow event were 88.0 mm and 21.6 mm,respectively. The event highlights the fact that lower rainfall intensity can trigger debris flows after the earthquake. Calculations of the debris flow peak discharge showed that the peak discharges after the dams-bursting were 1.17–1.69 times greater than the upstream peak discharge. The peak discharge at the gully outlet reached 2553 m^3/s which was amplified by 4.76 times in comparison with the initial peak discharge in the upstream. To mitigate debris flow disasters,a new drainage channel with a trapezoidal V-shaped cross section was proposed. The characteristic lengths(h1 and h2) under optimal hydraulic conditions were calculated as 4.50 m and 0.90 m,respectively.

Anomalies of bromine in the estuarine sediments as a signal of floods associated with typhoons

X-ray fluorescence scanning with synchrotron radiation was performed to study sediment core records of floods in Amur Bay,Sea of Japan.Interlayers of 3–8 mm with abnormally low bromine content were formed by the Razdolnaya River discharge to the central part of the bay during extreme floods,accompanied by severe storms at sea.Such conditions in the region are typical for periods of deep tropical cyclones(typhoons),to which the distinguished interlayers were compared on the timescale.This approach was made possible thanks to the high rate of sedimentation in the bay(3–5 mm/a) and low bioturbation of sediments under anoxic conditions.

Flood Vulnerability Assessment： A Multiscale, Multitemporal and Multidisciplinary Approach

Recent catastrophic events related to floods in Colombia reveal again the situation of disaster as a development issue not solved in the country. It is necessary to analyze in more detail the areas under threat and their respective vulnerability to the different mechanisms can generate flooding events and make adjustments in the assessment of disaster risks for the appropriate decision-making at local, regional and national levels. This paper presents a research project in its first phase, whose main objective is to develop a methodology for vulnerability assessment from a multiscale, multitemporal and multidisciplinary perspectives, combining the use of indicators and a spatial information system to analyze exposure and vulnerability at regional and local level in specific areas. This methodological tool will also enable local and regional authorities to identify the most appropriate strategies to reduce vulnerability and adaptation options, and make better decisions in assessing disaster risk. The information generated in this study will contribute to public policy action structured to correct short- and medium-term situations of actual or potential vulnerability, which can also be used in other activities of territorial and environmental planning, developing technology transfer activities and training associated with the research project in the service of the authorities and communities. Results obtained of the vulnerability analysis for a Colombian study area will relate to the hazards obtained in a parallel project whose goal is to identify the best risk management strategies through the development of GIS （geographic information system）-based scenarios for different risk and vulnerability reduction options.

Flood Risk Mitigation in the Tisza Valley by Deep Floodplain Reservoirs： The Effect on the Land Use

The actual situation of the Tisza Valley traditionally used for land farming is basically determined by the consequences of the river regulation of the nineteenth century which aimed at the extension of the intensive agriculture, by the extreme water regime of alternating periods of flood showing a deteriorating trend and drought related to the climatic change; and by several environmental problems induced mainly by the land use. The objective of the article is to prove the regional advantages of a proposed technical solution to mitigate the flood risk with a special regard to the land cover. Hydrodynamic modeling results prove that the best technical solution is given by a combination of different strategies containing the inundation of deep floodplains-areas regularly covered by water before the river regulation works and, globally, by an important mitigation of flood damages, the costs of solution would be surely covered in the longterm. By means of its natural-resembling operation, the regular water cover would allow a multiple use of water, contributing to the solution of the simultaneously existing aridity problem, and, the development of the floodplain landscape management would help improve the ecological and the economical upgrading of the region.

The planning and comprehensive utilization of Three Gorges Project

As the most significant water project,the Three Gorges Project (TGP) was designed to take care of multiple objectives for water utilization such as flood control,power generation and navigation.The implementation of the project improved the flood safety level of Jingjiang reach to more than 100-year return period,which reduced greatly the flood risk at the mid-lower reaches of Changjiang River,produce huge quantity of energy for the central,east and south China,and improved significantly the navigation conditions of Chuanjiang River.Meanwhile,the operation of the TGP in dry season which compensate the downstream water resources,will as well deepen the navigation channel and thus improve the navigation conditions in the middle river reach.With the increasing demands raised from various aspects of the society,new requirements will be made for the TGP for the purpose of harnessing,development and protection of the Yangtze River Basin.Therefore,it will be a long-term task for the operation of TGP on how to optimize the water resources utilization and implement an effective operation.

Typhoon-dominated Influence on Wood Debris Distribution and Transportation in a High Gradient Headwater Catchment

Wood debris is an important component of mountain streams. It causes serious damage and renders difficulty of water resource management in Taiwan. In this study, the quantity of wood debris and variation of migratory wood debris during flood events were examined. The downstream of Gaoshan Creek and Qijiawan Creek, located at Central Taiwan, was selected as the study area. The distribution and dynamic of wood debris in a high gradient headwater catchment were quantified using field surveys. A formula of critical depth for wood debris entrainment was used to evaluate the wood debris migration during three flooding events. In the study area, wood abundance and unit volume increased downstream, and wood density decreased downstream within a channel network. The channel morphology, riparian vegetation, and wood debris characteristics were found to influence the wood storage. As a result, the wood debris has an irregular accumulative distribution in the steep stream, and it migrates easily in the stream because of a high flow discharge. Strong relationships between the channel width and wood debris variables are discovered. Moreover, wood debris has a tendency to accumulate at sites with low stream power and wood debris dams, topographical notches, and unique geological structures. Our findings assist in the understanding of the effects of channel characteristics on distributions of wood debris in steep stream systems.

Urbanization and Flood Risk： Implication for Coping in Coastal Zones of Nigeria

This study looked at rapid urbanization and the flood risk it portends with a view to identifying mechanisms for coping in coastal zones of Nigeria. Flooding is one of the various ecological problems that has taken its toll on the quality of the environment, human health, and economic growth in parts of Africa and the coastal zones of Nigeria in particular. Rapid urbanization has been seen to result in changes in land use patterns which can adversely affect the hydrological processes in a catchment leading to a deteriorating water environment. warning systems are identified and discussed in the paper Structural and non-structural approach as well as flood early as flood risks coping mechanisms, It also discusses the policy implications that government through its relevant agencies must be up to its game by monitoring precursors, forecasting of probable floods and notification of alerts, It concludes and recommends that an active involvement of communities at risks is required and public education and awareness of risks should be facilitated through effective dissemination, as well as ensuring that there is a constant preparedness,

Floodplain Hazard Mitigations, Solutions and Recommendations for Wadi Asia in Jeddah-Saudi Arabia

No simple solution to flood prevention is accessible. This research provides a brief summary of the hydrologic and hydraulic methodology that can be used to develop specific details that integrated the flood information tool. It permits rapid analysis of a wide variety of stream discharge data and topographic mapping to avoid the flood hazard over entire floodplain boundaries. This paper focuses on the water floodplain hazard in Wadi Asla-Jaddah-Saudi Arabia. The most common type of rainfall in the study area is that accompanied by thunderstorms, which usually fall during the winter season as well as in the spring. The primarily evaluation of this problem and the solution is contemplate. The more essential and ＂doable＂ elements of a solutions and recommendations are discussed in this research.

CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR THE ONSET OF ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON AS REVEALED BY HIRS-Tb12 AND DROUGHT AND FLOODS IN EASTERN CHINA

As shown in comparison and study of the HIRS-Tb12 data and conventional data, temperature, humidity and vertical motion are structured differently in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which are well depicted with the HIRS-Tb12 data. When high pressures rapidly decrease over the regions of South China Sea and Arabian Sea with the HIRS-Tb12 less than 200 W/m2, monsoons will set off in the South China Sea, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. From a year of significant drought to one of significant floods, the trend of evolution is significantly different in the downdraft areas of the subtropical highs between the two hemispheres.

A High Resolution Forecast Model of Storm Surge Inundation

In order to forecast storm surge inundation, a two-dimensional model is established. In the model, an alternating computation sequence method is used to solve the governing equations, and the dry and wet method is introduced to treat the moving boundary. This model is easy to use. It has a friendly input interface and Arcview GIS is used as the output interface. The model is applied to the Shantou area to simulate the storm surge elevations and inundations caused by Typhoons 6903 ane 0104 using the same relevant parameters. The calculated results agree well with the observations.

Google Earth-based dynamic visualization system for storm surge flood routing

To describe the dynamic process of flood routing intuitively and realistically when storm surge disaster occurs,a method for ArcGIS data and Google Earth(GE) data integration is proposed,which realizes the importing and integrating of basic geographic information into GE. Based on SketchUp and AutoCAD software,threedimension(3D) visualization of seawall and other tidal defense structures is achieved. By employing Microsoft Foundation Class Library(MFC),the related system modules and storm surge flood routing dynamic visualization system are developed. Therefore,dynamic visualization of flood routing process and interactive query of submerged area and inundated depth are implemented. A practical application case study of Tianjin Binhai New Area provides decision-making support for coastal seawall planning and storm surge disaster prevention and reduction.

Response of Flash Flood Early Warning Critical Rainfall to Storm Pattern in South Branch of Censhui Watershed

Critical rainfall estimation for early warning of rainstorm-induced flash flood is an inverse rainstorm-runoff process based on warning discharge threshold for a warning station of interest in a watershed. The key aspects of critical rainfall include rainfall amount and rainfall duration. Storm pattern affects highly the estimation of critical rainfall. Using hydrological modeling technique with detailed sub-basin delineation and manual for design rainstorm-runoff computation, this study first introduced basic concept and analysis methods on critical rainfall for flash flood early warning, then, investigated the responses of flash flood warning critical rainfall to storm pattern. Taking south branch of Censhui watershed in China as an example, critical rainfall in case of typical storm patterns for early warning of rainstorm-induced flash flood were estimated at 3 warning stations. This research illustrates that storm pattern plays important role in the estimation of critical rainfall and enough attention should also be paid to storm pattern when making a decision on whether a warning to be issued or not.