22周日地大事件联测预报年度小结(英文)

根据22周太阳活动峰年日地整体行为大事件联合观测研究计划,联测预报组于1988年3月至1989年1月向各联测单位发布了五次联测预报,协调全国日地系统22个研究单位的40台仪器进行联合观测。 联测时段为:(1)1988.3.15—3.21;(2)4.16—4.21;(3)6.24—7.8;(4)12.15—12.25;(5)1989.1.11—1.19。历时共48天。 联测对象的六个活动区具有下列主要性: (1)活动区的卡林顿经度分布比较集中,均出现在90°—160°和260°—10°现阶段的两个优势活动经度带内。(2)活动区的黑子群面积大,主黑子半影纤维大而不对称,黑子呈密集分布,多为FKI、FKC等型。(3)活动区黑子结构复杂、演化剧烈,多具有明显的自行、旋转和剪切运动。(4)活动区往往伴有大规模新磁流浮现,使磁场位型具有复杂结构,最高磁型均为BGD。 联测期间的事件:(1)光学耀斑391个,其中,2级12个,1级64个,S级315个;(2)X射线爆发194个,其中,X级9个、M级58个,C级127个;(3)射电爆发,共产生与M级以上高能事件相关的245MHz爆发18次,10cm爆发30次,Ⅱ型爆发16次,Ⅲ型爆发12次,Ⅳ型爆发9次,Ⅴ型爆发2次,CTM一次;(4)E>10MeV的一级质子事件3次;(5)据云台天波观测统计,第2—5次联测期间共产生SID(D层)事件48次,其中,3级11次,2级13次,1级24次,据昆明电信局提供的消息,联测期间昆明?

New Keynesian Model and Inflation Prediction

Recently, much dispute has occurred about the validity of the New Keynesian model from both theoretical and empirical views. However, a few studies have analyzed this model from the empirical perspective. Few other studies have analyzed this model directly or nearly directly. This article empirically examines the New Keynesian model focusing on inflation forecast. Generalized method of moments （GMM） is used to examine whether the typical Keynesian model with Taylor rule is empirically appropriate for the US, UK, Euro area, and Japan. The results showed： （1） the New Keynesian model fits well in most cases and explains the real economy well. Taylor rule also fits well for most cases; （2） Rational expectations for inflation rates may not be useful based on this model When AR （1） （time series analysis） model is used to capture inflation expectations instead of one-time ahead real values, the model fits well. With measured expectations, the relative weight of the forward-looking terms increase on the cost of lagged inflation and output terms, even up to the point at which the lagged inflation terms are no longer needed to rescue the new Keynesian model; and （3） Forward-looking variables play more important roles than backward-looking ones in economic activity. Results with expectations with forward-looking terms perform better in general. This New Keynesian model may reduce the importance of lagged output in some cases

Effect of thinking on intracranial blood flow velocities

Objective To determine the effect of thinking on intracranial blood flow velocities.Methods Transcranial Doppler(TCD)was used to measure the blood flow velocities of the cerebral arteries,when 10 normal persons were at rest and during thinking.Results The mean flow velocities(MFVs)of the cerebral arteries during thinking were significantly higher than those at rest,especially in the MCA and ACA.The MFVs were raised from between 10.3% to 14.3%.Conclusions Thinking can increase the blood flow velocities of cerebral arteries significantly.

Multiple resonances with time delays in scale-free networks of Hodgkin-Huxley neurons subjected to non-Gaussian noise

The spiking behavior with varying time delay in scale-free networks of Hodgkin-Huxley neurons with non-Gaussian noise has been studied,and the effect of non-Gaussian noise on the delay-induced spiking behavior is discussed. It was found that multiple spatio-temporal resonances occur when the delay lengths are integer multiples of the spiking periods,and the resonances may be strengthened when the non-Gaussian noise is appropriate. This result shows that time delays can optimize the spiking temporal regularity and spatial synchronization,and appropriate non-Gaussian noise may enhance the delay-induced spiking behaviors. Our findings may help to further understand the joint roles of non-Gaussian noise and time delays in the spiking activity of scale-free neuronal networks.

Therapeutic observation of arthrolysis under brachial plexus anesthesia for adhesivecapsulitis of the shoulder

Objective:To objectively evaluate the short-term and long-term efficacies of arthrolysis under brachial plexus anesthesia in treating adhesive capsulitis of the shoulder(ACS).Methods:One hundred patients diagnosed with ACS were divided into two groups using the random number method.The two groups both received same active rehabilitation exercises.Besides,55 cases in the treatment group were given one session of arthrolysis under brachial plexus anesthesia,and 45 cases in the control group were given tuina treatment.Changes in the visual analog scale(VAS)score,Melle score and pressure pain index were observed I month and 3 months after treatment.The therapeutic efficacies were also compared.Results:The total effective rate was 96.4%at the 1-month follow-up and 96.4%at the 3-month follow-up in the treatment group.The total effective rate was 33.3%at the 1-month follow-up and 28.9%at the 3-month follow-up in the control group.There were significant differences between the two groups comparing the total effective rate at the two time points(both P<0.05).The scores of VAS,Melle and pressure pain were significantly different at the 1-month and 3-month follow-ups from those before treatment in the treatment group(all P<0.05);the three scores did not show significant differences at the 1-month and 3-month follow-ups compared with those before treatment in the control group(all P>0.05).Conclusion:Based on the active rehabilitation exercises,one session of arthrolysis under brachial plexus anesthesia can release the adhesion and restore the range of motion and function of shoulder joint in ACS patients.It is superior to rehabilitation exercises plus tuina treatment comparing both short-term and long-term efficacies.

Sun's total irradiance reconstruction based on multiple solar indices

In order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate, we need a much longer time series, i.e., the total solar irradiance (TSI) which is also an interesting issue in its own right in solar physics. By comparing different solar indices associated with TSI during the period 1979 to 2009, several empirical models in the TSI are presented. We verify that the reconstruction model based on the three variables: sunspot number, sunspot area, and solar 10.7 cm radio flux, is the best one. As demonstrated by model calculations, the history of TSI was reconstructed back to 1947 based on 3-indices and to 1874 based on 2-indices, respectively. The reason that the reduced irradiance on the trough during 2006 to 2009 lasts long may be due to the about 85-year cycle of solar activity, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year cycle (Schwabe cycles), possesses a considerable potential to produce an effective reducing, and holds on a steadily lower level of irradiance.

Water level changes in Polish lakes during 1976–2010

The paper presents the analysis of tendencies in water level changes in 32 lakes in Poland during 1976–2010.Series of monthly,seasonal,and annual precipitation and air temperature for 9 meteorological stations were also studied.The trend analysis for all of the studied series of water levels in lakes showed high spatial and temporal variability.Series of annual water levels in the case of 6 lakes showed statistically significant increasing tendencies,and in 7 lakes,significant decreasing trends.Series of annual amplitudes in the majority of lakes(22) showed a decreasing trend,but they were statistically significant only in three cases.The tendencies for air temperature fluctuations are more statistically significant than precipitation.The key role in determining water level changes is played by local factors,particularly including human economic activity,obscuring the effect of natural factors on water level changes.The paper describes cases of changes in water levels in lakes under anthropopressure related to among others: agricultural irrigations,hydropower infrastructure,water transfers,navigation,or mining.